Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell

[Hy Feiber]

Cy Young last year, now 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA, last start knocked out by Yanks in the first!

Already lost more games than last year.

[Hanjag]

I don't know why there is no real drop in FB velocity. There is some on max velocity but not a lot.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php? ... 06/23/2019

[Donn Beach]

In some ways, Snell’s stuff is more impressive than it was last season. He’s generating more swing-and-misses than ever before. He’s averaging more strikeouts and less walks. Even his percentage of hard-hit balls has gone down.

So how do you explain this?

Warily, I suppose.

There are a handful of theories but no obvious smoking gun. The easiest way to explain it is Snell has had less luck and worse timing. Line drives that might have been caught last year are now reaching the outfield grass, and a few extra fly balls have left the park.

But the biggest difference has been Snell’s performance with runners in scoring position. Last season, Snell stranded runners on base at an otherworldly pace.

Opponents hit just .088 (10-for-114) against him with runners on second or third. This season, hitters have a .237 average (14-for-59) with runners in scoring position against Snell.

That, alone, could account for a big chunk of his increased ERA.

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/20 ... he-answer/

[D-train]

His FIP is only up slightly from 2.95 to 3.37

His xFIP is nearly identical at 3.16 in 2018 and 3.14 this season.

In traditional FIP, you would use the pitcher's home run total, but in xFIP, you derive an expected number of home runs by taking the pitcher's fly balls allowed multiplied by the league average home run per fly ball rate.

fWAR is 1.8. bWAR is 0.5

[Donn Beach]

yea, was thinking that is pretty interesting, he is basically the same pitcher as last season, shows how much luck is involved, the slash line numbers can be very deceptive. It would seem like his arm had fallen off, Rays fans must think so. And on top of it the Rays are doing ok, if he is able to put up more wins in the second half look out

[D-train]

yea, was thinking that is pretty interesting, he is basically the same pitcher as last season, shows how much luck is involved, the slash line numbers can be very deceptive. It would seem like his arm had fallen off, Rays fans must think so. And on top of it the Rays are doing ok, if he is able to put up more wins in the second half look out

It is a great example of the difference between bWAR and fWAR. bWAR shows the results including luck and fWAR takes all the luck out of it. I like bWAR for what your value was but fWAR is a far better indicator of the future.

[Hanjag]

yea, was thinking that is pretty interesting, he is basically the same pitcher as last season, shows how much luck is involved, the slash line numbers can be very deceptive. It would seem like his arm had fallen off, Rays fans must think so. And on top of it the Rays are doing ok, if he is able to put up more wins in the second half look out

Check that Brooks baseball link. The velocity across his pitches is a little different. The average velocity is about the same but the max is down.