Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[Seattle or Bust]

Yep they are holding out for Kirby or Gilbert. Can the Yankees top and offer of Hancock, Miller, Brash, JK and a draft pick?

Bryan Reynolds is five months younger than Jesse Winker was last offseason when the Mariners traded for Winker coming off a 2021 season of 2.9 fWAR and 145 wRC+ in 110 games.

Reynolds is coming off a 2022 season of 2.9 fWAR and 125 wRC+ in 145 games.

There is no guarantee that Reynolds can make a successful transition from the NL Central to Seattle.

Then again, there are no guarantees in any move ... or non-move.

I read stuff about how Winker’s work ethic fell off a cliff after he made it as an all star. That, and his apparently toxic personality led to struggles in Seattle. Don’t work? Don’t get better. Asshole in the clubhouse? No one wants to be with you.

Don’t know how much validity there is to any of that, nor do I know much about Reynolds’ work ethic, but he might thrive in Seattle if he tries. Equally, Winker could get his shit together and be an all star again next season.

Not only that, but Winker played in what has been the no. 1 friendliest ballpark to lefty hitters over the past 3 seasons. Winker also hit in a lineup that featured .939 OPS Nick Castellanos, .938 OPS Joey Votto, .835 OPS Jon India, and .809 OPS Tyler Naquin in '21.

In Winker's first 3 seasons, his mid .800 OPS's were the product of a clear home-field advantage where he dropped .900+ OPS's in Cinci but low .700's away. In '21 he had his first true great season on the road (I don't count 2020 for much).

Bryan Reynolds on the other hand... has always been a better hitter on the road. In '19, Reynolds had a .820/.938 home/road split, in '21 .901/.925 and in '22 .759/.851... indicating that he's not simply a product of an easy ballpark to mash in. And he's hit in FAR worse lineups through out his career than Winker did.

But Harmony knows this about Reynolds... I explained this to him the other day.

[Seattle or Bust]

Yep they are holding out for Kirby or Gilbert. Can the Yankees top and offer of Hancock, Miller, Brash, JK and a draft pick?

When people tell me I have no idea what I'm talking about...

[harmony]

Bryan Reynolds is five months younger than Jesse Winker was last offseason when the Mariners traded for Winker coming off a 2021 season of 2.9 fWAR and 145 wRC+ in 110 games.

Reynolds is coming off a 2022 season of 2.9 fWAR and 125 wRC+ in 145 games.

There is no guarantee that Reynolds can make a successful transition from the NL Central to Seattle.

Then again, there are no guarantees in any move ... or non-move.

I read stuff about how Winker’s work ethic fell off a cliff after he made it as an all star. That, and his apparently toxic personality led to struggles in Seattle. Don’t work? Don’t get better. Asshole in the clubhouse? No one wants to be with you.

Don’t know how much validity there is to any of that, nor do I know much about Reynolds’ work ethic, but he might thrive in Seattle if he tries. Equally, Winker could get his shit together and be an all star again next season.

Not only that, but Winker played in what has been the no. 1 friendliest ballpark to lefty hitters over the past 3 seasons. Winker also hit in a lineup that featured .939 OPS Nick Castellanos, .938 OPS Joey Votto, .835 OPS Jon India, and .809 OPS Tyler Naquin in '21.

In Winker's first 3 seasons, his mid .800 OPS's were the product of a clear home-field advantage where he dropped .900+ OPS's in Cinci but low .700's away. In '21 he had his first true great season on the road (I don't count 2020 for much).

Bryan Reynolds on the other hand... has always been a better hitter on the road. In '19, Reynolds had a .820/.938 home/road split, in '21 .901/.925 and in '22 .759/.851... indicating that he's not simply a product of an easy ballpark to mash in. And he's hit in FAR worse lineups through out his career than Winker did.

But Harmony knows this about Reynolds... I explained this to him the other day.

And everyone knows that fWAR and wRC+ take park factors into account.

[Seattle or Bust]

I read stuff about how Winker’s work ethic fell off a cliff after he made it as an all star. That, and his apparently toxic personality led to struggles in Seattle. Don’t work? Don’t get better. Asshole in the clubhouse? No one wants to be with you.

Don’t know how much validity there is to any of that, nor do I know much about Reynolds’ work ethic, but he might thrive in Seattle if he tries. Equally, Winker could get his shit together and be an all star again next season.

Not only that, but Winker played in what has been the no. 1 friendliest ballpark to lefty hitters over the past 3 seasons. Winker also hit in a lineup that featured .939 OPS Nick Castellanos, .938 OPS Joey Votto, .835 OPS Jon India, and .809 OPS Tyler Naquin in '21.

In Winker's first 3 seasons, his mid .800 OPS's were the product of a clear home-field advantage where he dropped .900+ OPS's in Cinci but low .700's away. In '21 he had his first true great season on the road (I don't count 2020 for much).

Bryan Reynolds on the other hand... has always been a better hitter on the road. In '19, Reynolds had a .820/.938 home/road split, in '21 .901/.925 and in '22 .759/.851... indicating that he's not simply a product of an easy ballpark to mash in. And he's hit in FAR worse lineups through out his career than Winker did.

But Harmony knows this about Reynolds... I explained this to him the other day.

And everyone knows that fWAR and wRC+ take park factors into account.

Yes, but you cherry picked Winker's '21 to compare to Reynold's '22. Remove a fluky 55-game 2020 season and Reynold's is the far superior player via wRC+ overall.

You also fail to mention support in a lineup which is certainly important. I'd be very surprised if you don't think that's important. Reynold's .807 OPS and 126 OPS+ is insanely impressive when you consider the lineup he was hitting in. Winker's numbers aren't as impressive when you consider the lineups he was hitting in.

[bpj]

Anybody know how park factors are applied?

It looks like they just add up how all batters do in that park, average it out, and then they apply those factors evenly across all players, whether right or left handed.

For park factors to have any accuracy they would need to be broken down, and applied, by splits at the very least.

They seem just about as scientific as projections are.

[bpj]

For example, the Pirates have a Park Factor of 100.

But it's 105 for LH hitters.
And 96 for RH hitters.

But when they do their overall numbers in fWAR and wRC+, are they compared to the 100 park factor, or by how like hitters did?

I'm guessing they use the overall numbers, and I'm assuming that's why those stats seem pretty dubious.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderbo ... rolling=no

[harmony]

Anybody know how park factors are applied?

It looks like they just add up how all batters do in that park, average it out, and then they apply those factors evenly across all players, whether right or left handed.

For park factors to have any accuracy they would need to be broken down, and applied, by splits at the very least.

They seem just about as scientific as projections are.

From nearly 14 years ago:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-win ... -part-six/

The 2022 park factors:

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?typ ... eason=2022

... and broken down for handedness:

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?typ ... eason=2022

[bpj]

Anybody know how park factors are applied?

It looks like they just add up how all batters do in that park, average it out, and then they apply those factors evenly across all players, whether right or left handed.

For park factors to have any accuracy they would need to be broken down, and applied, by splits at the very least.

They seem just about as scientific as projections are.

From nearly 14 years ago:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-win ... -part-six/

The 2022 park factors:

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?typ ... eason=2022

... and broken down for handedness:

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?typ ... eason=2022

This doesn't answer my question-

For example, the Pirates have a Park Factor of 100.

But it's 105 for LH hitters.
And 96 for RH hitters.

But when they do their overall numbers in fWAR and wRC+, are they compared to the 100 park factor, or by how like hitters did?

I'm guessing they use the overall numbers, and I'm assuming that's why those stats seem pretty dubious.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderbo ... rolling=no

[desbcoach]

If the division held only the Astros and the M's, then there may be a possibility of making the playoffs. But both the Angels and Rangers are improved and finishing second in the division is not a foregone conclusion. Nor is the playoffs. We won't win as many games v. the Rangers or Angels as we did last year.

Fortunately we don’t play as many against them or Houston with new schedule

[harmony]

Anybody know how park factors are applied?

It looks like they just add up how all batters do in that park, average it out, and then they apply those factors evenly across all players, whether right or left handed.

For park factors to have any accuracy they would need to be broken down, and applied, by splits at the very least.

They seem just about as scientific as projections are.

From nearly 14 years ago:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-win ... -part-six/

The 2022 park factors:

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?typ ... eason=2022

... and broken down for handedness:

https://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?typ ... eason=2022

This doesn't answer my question-

For example, the Pirates have a Park Factor of 100.

But it's 105 for LH hitters.
And 96 for RH hitters.

But when they do their overall numbers in fWAR and wRC+, are they compared to the 100 park factor, or by how like hitters did?

I'm guessing they use the overall numbers, and I'm assuming that's why those stats seem pretty dubious.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderbo ... rolling=no

FanGraphs breaks down wRC+ handedness and home/away splits but is unclear on whether the wRC+ is measured against overall or like-handedness numbers:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bryan ... &split=1.4

Forum contributors express themselves to the best of their abilities and render judgments based on their limited information and expertise.

We're not garbage; we're amateurs!

Nothing wrong with that.