Offseason Plans

[TraderGary]

The only job I’d give James Paxton is doorman at one of the shitters at the ballpark

People would have said the same about Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon.

Paxton, if healthy (yes, big if) is a guy who will pitch to a sub-4 ERA. Don't be surprised if they re-up him, a lot of current M's pitchers have mentioned how Paxton has been a big help to them this year.

I'd be fine with Paxton on a low cost prove it type contract. High reward low risk. Very little downside in that scenario and a ton of upside. As long as it's not considered one of our "big signings" this offseason by JD.

[TraderGary]

We already have a full time DH. He's just not good enough to be full time, but he's still taking up the roster spot like one.

They just don't want to pay for a good one, then they'll act shocked when their offense continues to score less than other good teams.

But I really don't think they view Torrens as a full time DH as evidenced by working him out at 3rd base recently. They've stated several times that they plan on using a rotating DH to give guys "days off". Not my preference by any stretch, but that's their stated plan going forward.

I know. Just as bad of an idea as not getting a player before this season started.

No idea why they insist on giving guys with .750 OPS and .810 OPS a "day off" at DH, just to jettison an actual DH that produces a .900 OPS. Even when their best bats get the day off, it's a downgrade from an actual DH. Makes zero sense, and they could still follow that plan by using the DH off the bench as a pinch hitter, or getting a day in the field at their best spot.

It's good Torrens is moving, he doesn't have the bat to be a DH yet.

I agree with everything you said, but unfortunately that's their plan and it loos like they're committed to it.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

Furthermore, do not trade Noelvi Marte under any circumstances. This ballclub will greatly regret it. I couldn't live with a Fernando Tatis Jr. escaping from us.

What convinces you that Marte will be that level of player?

Marte and Rodriguez are both untouchable.... Marte is like a man among boys already... they have both risen to our #1 and #2 prospects...

Welp, good luck trading for an impact player like Ramirez or Olson then.

M's fans have got to get comfortable with the idea that we've got trade chips and need to use them if we want to be a winning franchise sooner rather than later.

Also, unrelated, if the M's roll with Torrens at DH next year that will tell you all you need to know about how hard this front office is trying to win. Here's a hint, not that hard.

[bpj]

With the emergence of Brash and Williamson, our best trade package may be headlined by George Kirby and Emerson Hancock imo.

Agreed about the DH issue also.

Even if Torrens had an .800 OPS since he's been back, that's .150 points lower than at least one available replacement.

.150 OPS is the same difference that people want to pay $300M for the difference between JP Crawford and one of the premier shortstop.

People seem more comfortable with the idea of adding .150 OPS of offense for $300M at SS than they are getting a DH for $13M that is going to add just as much offense over Torrens as the expensive shortstop would over Crawford.

You're absolutely right, if their plan is Torrens, and "resting" other .750-.800 OPS bats, they're throwing offense out the window every night. Opportunity cost.

"But bpj, only a few teams pay for DH's...."

Yeah. The ones that plan to make the playoffs. Even the Angels and Braves are carrying DH's.

[D-train]

The only job I’d give James Paxton is doorman at one of the shitters at the ballpark

People would have said the same about Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon.

Paxton, if healthy (yes, big if) is a guy who will pitch to a sub-4 ERA. Don't be surprised if they re-up him, a lot of current M's pitchers have mentioned how Paxton has been a big help to them this year.

I'd be fine with Paxton on a low cost prove it type contract. High reward low risk. Very little downside in that scenario and a ton of upside. As long as it's not considered one of our "big signings" this offseason by JD.

Well the downside to signing him this season was missing the Playoffs so I don't really consider that a small downside

[TraderGary]

For those who want Semien, why would he and the Blue Jays not want a reunion?

He thinks the Blue Jays "became the best team in baseball."

They could easily pay him considering Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio are making zilch.

If I'm the Jays I pay him 3-years $80 million and call it a day.

Semien scares me for the same reasons you listed in your post on page one. Has had 7 replacement or below replacement level seasons, a nice season in 2019 and a career year in 2021 which just happens to be a contract year. How many times have we seen that, only to see said player fall off a cliff in the following year after being rewarded with a massive contract? I could easily see that happen with Semien.

Also he's 31 years old and may be peaking. We could sign him to a massive contract only to watch him begin his decline with the M's, and we've effectively handcuffed ourselves again with a bloated contract.

In my mind, 7 bad seasons and 2 good ones spells danger to me, particularly when you consider his best season to date was a contract year. For what it would take to sign him, it's a huge risk and not one I would personally take. I believe there are better options. He's a pass for me, but I could definitely see the Mariners targeting him given our holes in the infield, along with their belief that they're set in the outfield with Kelenic, Lewis, Haniger and J-Rod. And they've already made it clear they're not interested in signing a full time DH.

Who is your FA bat target given that its clear that they are sticking with at SS?

If we're talking strictly free agent, Bryant would be my number one choice. Much safer option than Semien in my opinion based on track records. I'm not completely against Semien, I just think he's very risky given his track record, and the money it will take to lure him to Seattle.

But I REALLY want JRam more than anyone. If I'm JD, I'm going hard after him and anyone is on the table except J-Rod.

Matt Olsen would also be near the top of my wish list.

I realize this is likely a pipe dream, but if we were able to acquire two of either JRam, Olsen, or Bryant, I would be over the moon with excitement. One difference maker in the middle of the lineup is not enough. We really need two to be legitimate. But they also need to add a TOR starter.

That's a big ask, but we have the payroll flexibility to make all those things happen and I don't want to hear any excuses this year from JD or anyone else in the Mariners Organization.

Adding two of those three bats along with a TOR arm makes us a serious and legitimate contender from game one. Combine those additions with Lewis coming back healthy, (fingers crossed), and JK continuing to improve on his Sept this year, (toes crossed), and this is a very formidable lineup. And we already have the best bullpen in baseball with the additions of Giles and Munoz.

GET IT DONE JD! NO EXCUSES! That should be ours and the Mariners motto for 2022. NO EXCUSES!

Edit to add: Wow I almost forgot about Correa. He’s been at the top of my wish list all year. But he’s going to get a MASSIVE deal from someone. I would certainly be kicking the tires on him though. Of course he would also have to be willing to move to 3rd base because the M’s aren’t moving on from JP.

As for Corey Seager, no way he’s coming to Seattle now that it’s clear Kyle is done here.

[bpj]

With so many pitchers available to teams like us with money available, a guy like Logan Gilbert would go a long way towards a Jose Ramirez imo, and I don't think it would necessarily set us back if they added a free agent SP or two.

[TraderGary]

People would have said the same about Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon.

Paxton, if healthy (yes, big if) is a guy who will pitch to a sub-4 ERA. Don't be surprised if they re-up him, a lot of current M's pitchers have mentioned how Paxton has been a big help to them this year.

I'd be fine with Paxton on a low cost prove it type contract. High reward low risk. Very little downside in that scenario and a ton of upside. As long as it's not considered one of our "big signings" this offseason by JD.

Well the downside to signing him this season was missing the Playoffs so I don't really consider that a small downside

As long as they're not counting on him being healthy all year, (and who would), and have a Matt Brash or a Hancock ready to step in, it shouldn't be an issue. He would have to be considered an extra arm, and a luxury that you likely won't have for a full season, and already have a contingency plan in place if he does go down. That contingency was something they didn't have this year because this was supposed to be a throw away season.

But when healthy, he's a legitimate #1 or #2 starter. If you can get that for a 3 or 4 million dollar prove it deal, that's a hell of a bargain. And he may surprise us all and give us 20 or more starts on the year. You wouldn't take that at that price? I sure would.

Would you rather take a chance on Paxton staying healthy, or have someone like Sheffield starting every 5 days? Pretty easy choice for me.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

I swear man - I'm on this MLB trade values thing.

A guy wants to offer Ty France and Jarred Kelenic for 3 years of German Marquez at around $14 million a year. German Marquez has a career 4.25 ERA and finished 2021 at 4.40. So we're going to give up 4 years of Ty France and 6 years of Kelenic (who have MONSTER ceilings) for a pitcher who has never been able to put it together? And at double-digit cash in the millions!?

Not only that, but he's convinced the M's are going to bring back Kyle Seager because the M's brought back 42-year-old Ichiro to play 17 games in 2018/2019.

And he's getting all upset that I'm not being nice to him.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

People would have said the same about Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon.

Paxton, if healthy (yes, big if) is a guy who will pitch to a sub-4 ERA. Don't be surprised if they re-up him, a lot of current M's pitchers have mentioned how Paxton has been a big help to them this year.

I'd be fine with Paxton on a low cost prove it type contract. High reward low risk. Very little downside in that scenario and a ton of upside. As long as it's not considered one of our "big signings" this offseason by JD.

Well the downside to signing him this season was missing the Playoffs so I don't really consider that a small downside

Exactly He cost us the playoffs