Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[GL_Storm]

[ice99]

I wouldn't choose TMobile if I were Bogaerts. He has the best chance of the FA shortstops to get 3000 career hits.

He almost certainly won't get to 3,000 hits. He's at 10 years service time with 1,410 hits and going into his age 30 season. Getting to 3,000 hits would mean staying healthy and effective into his early 40's, probably age 42 or something like that.

Pffft 10 years? You're counting a Sept. callup as one year? lol.

[D-train]

What are your guys thoughts on Turner. For some reason, and its weird because I don't know much about him, he seems totally over rated. Am I wrong?

I guess when I think of the best impact players in the game he doesn't seem to make the cut.

[ice99]

What are your guys thoughts on Turner. For some reason, and its weird because I don't know much about him, he seems totally over rated. Am I wrong?

I guess when I think of the best impact players in the game he doesn't seem to make the cut.

I believe he has the highest OPS projection (Baseball Reference) for next year out of the 4.

[GL_Storm]

I wouldn't choose TMobile if I were Bogaerts. He has the best chance of the FA shortstops to get 3000 career hits.

He almost certainly won't get to 3,000 hits. He's at 10 years service time with 1,410 hits and going into his age 30 season. Getting to 3,000 hits would mean staying healthy and effective into his early 40's, probably age 42 or something like that.

Pffft 10 years? You're counting a Sept. callup as one year, lol?

Actually, you're right. B-Ref has him at 9.042 as of 1/2023. I didn't realize they had updated service time calculations across the site so I was still adding one year to their number. They must have pushed that change through in the last day or two.

But I still don't see him getting to 3,000 hits. Father time will bring him down. He needed a lot more 190+ hit seasons I think, and 2020 obviously didn't help anyone's counting stats.

[GL_Storm]

[ice99]

He almost certainly won't get to 3,000 hits. He's at 10 years service time with 1,410 hits and going into his age 30 season. Getting to 3,000 hits would mean staying healthy and effective into his early 40's, probably age 42 or something like that.

Pffft 10 years? You're counting a Sept. callup as one year, lol?

Actually, you're right. B-Ref has him at 9.042 as of 1/2023. I didn't realize they had updated service time calculations across the site so I was still adding one year to their number. They must have pushed that change through in the last day or two.

But I still don't see him getting to 3,000 hits. Father time will bring him down. He needed a lot more 190+ hit seasons I think, and 2020 obviously didn't help anyone's counting stats.

His Sept. callup and his rookie year add up to 162 games. If you throw out those seasons and the hits, and the Covid year, to get a better approximation of full years, then he has something like 1200+ hits over 7 full seasons. Or about 173 hits/full season.

He has an outside chance if he plays 10+ more seasons.

[desbcoach]

Roster moves. Sadler coming off injury will hit FA. I guess M's have a lot of rule 5s to protect

[tweet]Screenshot 2022-11-09 at 14-21-34 TweetDeck.png[/tweet]

Both had arm/shoulder injury and will be hard pressed to get a ML contract

[GL_Storm]

Pffft 10 years? You're counting a Sept. callup as one year, lol?

Actually, you're right. B-Ref has him at 9.042 as of 1/2023. I didn't realize they had updated service time calculations across the site so I was still adding one year to their number. They must have pushed that change through in the last day or two.

But I still don't see him getting to 3,000 hits. Father time will bring him down. He needed a lot more 190+ hit seasons I think, and 2020 obviously didn't help anyone's counting stats.

His Sept. callup and his rookie year add up to 162 games. If you throw out those seasons and the hits, and the Covid year, to get a better approximation of full years, then he has something like 1200+ hits over 7 full seasons. Or about 173 hits/full season.

He has an outside chance if he plays 10+ more seasons.

But you can't just throw those out. The numbers are the numbers and his age is what it is and although he could still have some career years in front of him, every player's performance declines with age. I will concede though that if he could get to 2500 hits by the end of the 2028 season, it could happen. But that's really hard. That's more than a thousand hits over 6 seasons. But if he could do that, and he's still healthy and hitting effectively, it might happen.

[harmony]

The Athletic quotes Seattle's Jerry Dipoto in a piece about the impact of rule changes:

Naturally, then, some players’ stocks will rise in the new look, while others’ will fall. Left-handed hitters — who are often significantly hurt by the shift — and base stealers will be more valuable, said Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, “at least in theory.” Hitters for average, as well.

“Everybody would like to get a little faster, a little more athletic, but the bigger bases certainly give you a head start,” Dipoto said. “I don’t know that you have to have Rickey Henderson on your roster to do something, to take a step forward, in a base stealing perspective. But that’s an area where we would like to get better.”

Meanwhile, infielders with more range who can make up some of the ground that used to be covered by the shift could be newly coveted. But it could be more difficult to evaluate the future contributions of a middle infielder if that infielder is coming from a team that heavily shifted in recent years.

“Can’t really do that,” Dipoto said. “But we can, through Statcast data, get a pretty good idea of what that player’s natural range is.”

https://theathletic.com/3777485/2022/11 ... cy-impact/