8/18 Mariners Sniffing 9 Games Over, Again vs. Rangers Game Thread

[Donn Beach]

Okay, how about this. The Mariners final record will be better because of making the trade than if they hadn't made it.

[Captain 97]

Okay, how about this. The Mariners final record will be better because of making the trade than if they hadn't made it.

Disagree Wholeheartedly.

[ddraig]

I'm mixed up on times, tempuratures, and money.... Christ.

So I'm assuming the game starts tonight at 4:05 pm Seattle time? I'm in LIsbon waiting for a flight to Madeira and I am assuming that game will start at 12:05 tonight or 5 minutes past midnight in Madeira. I arrived at the Airport this morning and cashed out a couple hundred dollars for Euro dollars and ended up with less money..... looks like a dollar is worth about .85 cents Euro here, but the exchange rate in stores is even worse.... maybe the dollar is worth only .80 cents Euro.

I bought an adapter for my computer cord and that works, but the wifi is pretty weak here at the airport and I stuck my phone in the checked baggage so I won't see it until I finish this trip in Madeira.

As far as the tempurature is concerned, the hot months in Madeira are August and September when the temp. hits 27 C which is about 80 degrees. As far as I can tell, the temperature is similar to Jamaica, Kaleci, or Sri Lanka.

I'm gonna try to watch the game tonight.

I've been learning Portuguese, but these fuckers speak way too fast for me..... way too fast... I'm assuming it'll all come together slowly.

Terry, the Euro's are a bit cheaper than the last time I was there. One dollar was about .75 Euros. But then look at it this way, Portugal is far less expensive than the rest of Europe, so your Euros will go further. Cost of living is lower in Portugal.

Wifi is hit or miss and never as good as it is here. You'll have to get used to it. If a burro stumbles on the line, you are toast!

The timezone in Portugal and Madeira are 8 hours ahead of us. Same as London. The Azores are further out (west) in the Atlantic and "only 7 hours ahead of us. As for temps in Celsius, I use this rule of thumb. Double the temp in Celsius and add 30. It will get you close. As for the game, yes, 4:05 Seattle time. That would be midnight for you. Or 11 PM in Madeira.

And by the way, Portuguese is a bitch, but you'll get the hang of it after a couple of months. And the country will turn you into a wine drinker! Have fun!

[bpj]

Do you?

Yes, at the break, having a record 9 games over .500 has them 1 game back of the wild card.

Now having a record 9 games over .500 will have them 3 to 4 games back of the wild card.

Because the teams around us got better.

And you said "the problem with keeping Graveman" which insinuates you think we would still have a record 9 games over .500 with Graveman. If you thought we would have a better record by keeping Graveman the second part of your sentence makes no sense.

Here's what I said-

The problem with holding Graveman at the deadline and acquiring at least another bat is that while we were just 1 game out the last time we were 9 games over, this time the teams around us in the standings improved so what once was 1 game out at 9 games over is now more like 3.5 games back.

What that means, is that even if they held Graveman, they were going to have to play better the rest of the season to keep up with the improved competition, then I showed it with the numbers to back the claim.

[Donn Beach]

Yeah, no reason not to learn Portuguese. The attitude that kids pick up a language easier than an adult is a misconception. An adult just has different tools to attack it with

[ddraig]

Yeah, no reason not to learn Portuguese. The attitude that kids pick up a language easier than an adult is a misconception. An adult just has different tools to attack it with

Just make certain you learn Portuguese Portuguese and not Brazilian Portuguese. Totally different animal!

[Juliooooo]

Okay, how about this. The Mariners final record will be better because of making the trade than if they hadn't made it.

I think if you do all the trades in totality you can make that claim. It's probably a wash for just the Graveman trade, but Mariners win the trade big time in the future with Toro.

[bpj]

We are 64-56 in 120 games, almost 3/4 of the season behind us. We have 42 games remaining... if we continue at this pace we would win 23 games to give us 87. I think we need 90 or 91 to get into a wild card. To win 90 we need to win 26 out of 42 and that would be 26-16 the rest of the way or ten over in the final quarter. Pretty doubtful, imo... but it's a matter of the defense and pitching remaining solid, and a couple of guys catching fire with the bats...We either go on a couple 5 game win streaks or keep winning every series.... What's in the tank? I don't know....

87. That number rings a bell for some reason. I would have to go back and look but I think 90-91 was about my win projection based on individual WAR projections which are WAAAYYY Off by the way.

We need to start documenting the pros "projections" to see how spectacularly they fail

[Captain 97]

Yes, at the break, having a record 9 games over .500 has them 1 game back of the wild card.

Now having a record 9 games over .500 will have them 3 to 4 games back of the wild card.

Because the teams around us got better.

And you said "the problem with keeping Graveman" which insinuates you think we would still have a record 9 games over .500 with Graveman. If you thought we would have a better record by keeping Graveman the second part of your sentence makes no sense.

Here's what I said-

The problem with holding Graveman at the deadline and acquiring at least another bat is that while we were just 1 game out the last time we were 9 games over, this time the teams around us in the standings improved so what once was 1 game out at 9 games over is now more like 3.5 games back.

What that means, is that even if they held Graveman, they were going to have to play better the rest of the season to keep up with the improved competition, then I showed it with the numbers to back the claim.

And they would have. They would be 3-4 games better right now. Boston is dropping like a rock and the A's have a brutal schedule If we were sitting 1 game back of them right now I would like our chances immensely. You seem to think it would have been a "problem" to keep Graveman. I think it blew our chances to make the playoffs this season.

[D-train]

We are 64-56 in 120 games, almost 3/4 of the season behind us. We have 42 games remaining... if we continue at this pace we would win 23 games to give us 87. I think we need 90 or 91 to get into a wild card. To win 90 we need to win 26 out of 42 and that would be 26-16 the rest of the way or ten over in the final quarter. Pretty doubtful, imo... but it's a matter of the defense and pitching remaining solid, and a couple of guys catching fire with the bats...We either go on a couple 5 game win streaks or keep winning every series.... What's in the tank? I don't know....

87. That number rings a bell for some reason. I would have to go back and look but I think 90-91 was about my win projection based on individual WAR projections which are WAAAYYY Off by the way.

We need to start documenting the pros "projections" to see how spectacularly they fail

Fangraphs: 72 wins

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atc-2021-pr ... yoff-odds/

SI with 69 wins and note this comment.

Fans have the call-up of top prospect Jarred Kelenic to look forward to and ... not a whole lot else.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/03/29/baseb ... -standings

BAs PECOTA system: 70 wins

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-pecota-pr ... -breakdown