Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[Big_Maple]

If this is all the M's do, you can bet you're ass we'll be pissed!

No, no, no, no! I didn't mean "is this it for the offseason"? I just meant was this trade reason enough to miss the ROY celebration. Or could it be that they have another big one in the hopper that could come to fruition in the next few days...

[D-train]

Doubt he'll be an upgrade over healthy Mitch Haniger. Obviously they don't think paying Mitch is worth the gamble, but let's not pretend having to give up a good relief pitcher and lighten the farm system yet again in order to replace him doesn't hurt.

He is a replacement for 2021 Mitch. The concept of a healthy productive Mitch is past tense.

If Mitch stayed healthy and was a bargain there’s plenty to complain about this deal. We shall see if Teo can hit in t mobile and wants to stay and we extend him. I like the trade but if Mitch doesn’t take another one in the nuts and stays healthy we might miss him around here

Yeah its a sad saga but is what it is. I used to be his biggest fan but time to move on imo.

[D-train]

Haggerty and Moore are not full time OFs. They are utility players. So throw them out of the equation right now. Winker has been rumored to being shopped. I can't imagine that there would be a lot of takers considering he can't field, is coming off of a horrible injury plagued year and is set to make $8M next season. At best you slot him in as you're DH in 2023. Then there's Lewis. How is that knee? Because it looked "wrecked" to me. If you aren't hitting, then you definitely can't be on this team. I'm not even sure he can play the OF anymore if we're being honest. Hoping for a full recovery, but I'm not holding my breath. Then you have Trammell and Kelenic. Both serviceable in the field, but can't hit their weight in the majors. They both look like 4th OFs to me. There's still time left for both, but how much can you give them on a contending team? The train is leaving the station and both of those boys are still stuck on the AAA platform. Might be time to pull out and make a trade. No, what Seattle needs right now, is proven MLB hitters with a track record. Teoscar is the first piece to fall of what I expect is to be a busy offseason for Dipoto.

Now if they can offload Gonzales, Flexen, and Winker, that would create some wiggle room to go out and get P Kodai Sengal, OF Masakata Yoshida, and potentially one of the Big SS like Xander Bogaerts or Trea Turner.

1.SS-Turner
2.CF-JRod
3.RF-Hernandez
4.LF-Yoshida
5.1B-France
6.C-Raleigh
7.3B-Suarez
8.DH-??(Haniger)
9.2B-Crawford

You still have a hole at DH if you trade Winker. So a potential return for Haniger coming back to play the OF part time isn't quite out of the cards.

Ace-Kirby
P-Castillo
P-Gilbert
P-Ray
P-Sengal

I know a lot of you are like wait what?! Castillo is our Ace! Just calling it like I see it. The M's will no doubt roll out with Castillo as our opening day starter and be touted as our current Ace. But I think when it's all said and done, Kirby will be above all the rest. Might find some takers on Ray's contract when Emerson gets closer to being ready.

I got one right in the Teoscar trade! Woo!

Great post Ben!!!!!

Thanks DT! Just my two cents for what it's worth.

This was spot on brother. Great stuff:

Then there's Lewis. How is that knee? Because it looked "wrecked" to me. If you aren't hitting, then you definitely can't be on this team. I'm not even sure he can play the OF anymore if we're being honest. Hoping for a full recovery, but I'm not holding my breath. Then you have Trammell and Kelenic. Both serviceable in the field, but can't hit their weight in the majors. They both look like 4th OFs to me. There's still time left for both, but how much can you give them on a contending team? The train is leaving the station and both of those boys are still stuck on the AAA platform. Might be time to pull out and make a trade. No, what Seattle needs right now, is proven MLB hitters with a track record. Teoscar is the first piece to fall of what I expect is to be a busy offseason for Dipoto.

[D-train]

He is a replacement for 2021 Mitch. The concept of a healthy productive Mitch is past tense.

If Mitch stayed healthy and was a bargain there’s plenty to complain about this deal. We shall see if Teo can hit in t mobile and wants to stay and we extend him. I like the trade but if Mitch doesn’t take another one in the nuts and stays healthy we might miss him around here

The question isn't whether Teoscar can hit at T Mobile. The question is, can he "continue" to hit at T Mobile?

[D-train]

So Hollander missed the Rookie of the Year awards, purportedly because he was working on a trade/deal. How many of you think the Teoscar Hernandez was that trade? I mean it wasn't a blockbuster. It wasn't even all that nuanced or complicated.

I guess my question is "do you all think this was a primer trade, and a much bigger and bolder one is coming down the pike?" Or is this it? This is why the GM missed the ROY awards...?

I think this was the deal he was working on and I think we will do at least one more major trade.

[Seattle or Bust]

This would be my hope going forward:

Trade: Mariners send Taylor Trammell, Chris Flexen, and Isaiah Campbell to the Phillies for reliever Jose Alvarado.

Why? The M's offload some of their young outfield depth to a team who needs it. The Phillies are very weak defensively in OF and rolled out a horrible CF this past year in Matt Vierling who was worth -.6 WAR. Enter Taylor Trammell who gives them a cheap upgrade with years of control who can play a decent CF. Isaiah Campbell offers a young bullpen arm replacement for Jose Alvarado who the Phillies may want to trade as he has just 1 year left of control and has been good, but not great. Flexen serves as a solid 5 that they didn't get from Kyle Gibson or Zach Elfin. The M's need a lefty reliever and Alvarado fills the role as a solid power arm.

Trade: Mariners send Taylor Dollard, Lazaro Montes, Bryan Woo, Dylan Moore to the Rays for 2B Brandon Lowe.

Why? This is exactly the trade the Rays like to make when guys get expensive. Lowe is set to make $5.2 million in 2023 and $8.75 million in 2024... a steep price to pay if he repeats the poor performance he had in 2022. Taylor Dollard is a wet dream for Tampa and would likely become the next, great right handed arm for them. Lazaro Montes has high up side as a youngin that will help rebuild a farm that is struggling positionaly. Bryan Woo gives them a solid bullpen arm who shined in the M's farm in '22. Moore serves as a cheaper replacement for Lowe at 2B. The M's take a bit of a gamble on a guy who has posted some serious production in the past but was bad in '22. He's a premier 2B when healthy and the M's would have him for control in '25 and '26 on club options if he returns to form.

Trade: Mariners send Emerson Hancock, Gabriel Gonzales, Jarred Kelenic, Jesse Winker and cash to the Pirates for LF Bryan Reynolds.

Why? While the return may seem light for Reynolds on paper, it was rumored that Hancock was possibly the centerpiece for a deal for Reynolds when the M's checked in at various times. Hancock rebounded nicely in '22 and pitched to around a 2.00 ERA in 15 starts before having a rough final 5 or so starts which put his ERA in the mid 3's. His value is a lot higher than given credit for and he's the arm the Pirates would want. Gabriel Gonzales is the Bryan Reynolds of the M's farm system... high avg, extremely high OBP, some power, OF versatility... he's a baby... but the Pirates adding him only helps build the farm. Kelenic serves as a replacement for Reynolds and the Pirates hope they catch lightning in a bottle w. a former top 5 prospect. Winker returns to the NL and if he returns to form... the Pirates got a good one that they can maybe entice to stick around. The Mariners complete what would be easily the best OF in baseball by adding Reynolds.

Trade: Mariners send Marco Gonzales and cash to the Red Sox for reliever Matt Barnes.

Why? The Red Sox could use some starting pitching depth. Contract dumps for both teams.

Sign: Mariners sign Kodai Senga to a 4-year $70 million deal.

Why? He's good. Potentially cheap. And the M's would have a 4/5 in Ray/Senga or Senga/Ray that would be 1's or 2's in some rotations.

Lineup:

1. (S) Bryan Reynolds LF
2. (R) Ty France 1B
3. (R) Julio Rodriguez CF
4. (R) Teoscar Hernandez RF
5. (L) Brandon Lowe 2B
6. (R) Eugenio Suarez 3B
7. (S) Cal Raleigh C
8. Kyle Lewis/ Cade Marlowe DH/OF flex
9. (L)JP Crawford SS

Bench: Util: Sam Haggerty, OF's Cade Marlowe, Kyle Lewis: BC: Tom Murphy

Rotation:

1. Luis Castillo
2. George Kirby
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Robbie Ray
5. Kodai Senga

Bullpen:

Closer: Andres Munoz
High Leverage: Paul Sewald, Matt Brash, Jose Alvarado
Low Leverage: Diego Castillo, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa, Matt Barnes
The rest: Prelander Berroa? Blake Weiman? Gabe Speier? Easton McGee? Bryce Miller?

[GL_Storm]

I'll pass on the deal for Jose Alvarado. I'd honestly just rather sign Matthew Boyd or Matt Moore, or preferably both. I'm not trading G2 or Montes, and maybe not Woo depending on what the internal reports say about him.

I've long thought that a trade for Bryan Reynolds would include JK in return. Hate to see him go but them's the breaks.

[Seattle or Bust]

I'll pass on the deal for Jose Alvarado. I'd honestly just rather sign Matthew Boyd or Matt Moore, or preferably both. I'm not trading G2 or Montes, and maybe not Woo depending on what the internal reports say about him.

I've long thought that a trade for Bryan Reynolds would include JK in return. Hate to see him go but them's the breaks.

I will state this until the day I die. You cannot get married to prospects or burnouts that you hope turn out.

The Astros traded 29 prospects, at least 20 of which were rated in their org's top 10 at the given time, for CarGo, McCann, Gattis, Giles, Liriano, Verlander, Cole, Osuna and Greinke.

They've made 6 straight ALCS. They don't stop developing once they make these trades.

[GL_Storm]

I'll pass on the deal for Jose Alvarado. I'd honestly just rather sign Matthew Boyd or Matt Moore, or preferably both. I'm not trading G2 or Montes, and maybe not Woo depending on what the internal reports say about him.

I've long thought that a trade for Bryan Reynolds would include JK in return. Hate to see him go but them's the breaks.

I will state this until the day I die. You cannot get married to prospects or burnouts that you hope turn out.

The Astros traded 29 prospects, at least 20 of which were rated in their org's top 10 at the given time, for CarGo, McCann, Gattis, Giles, Liriano, Verlander, Cole, Osuna and Greinke.

They've made 6 straight ALCS. They don't stop developing once they make these trades.

I think the trick for GM's and front offices is to know which players to trade and which ones to hold onto.

[Seattle or Bust]

I'll pass on the deal for Jose Alvarado. I'd honestly just rather sign Matthew Boyd or Matt Moore, or preferably both. I'm not trading G2 or Montes, and maybe not Woo depending on what the internal reports say about him.

I've long thought that a trade for Bryan Reynolds would include JK in return. Hate to see him go but them's the breaks.

I will state this until the day I die. You cannot get married to prospects or burnouts that you hope turn out.

The Astros traded 29 prospects, at least 20 of which were rated in their org's top 10 at the given time, for CarGo, McCann, Gattis, Giles, Liriano, Verlander, Cole, Osuna and Greinke.

They've made 6 straight ALCS. They don't stop developing once they make these trades.

I think the trick for GM's and front offices is to know which players to trade and which ones to hold onto.

Sure.

And the Astros held on to the ones they wanted and quite literally traded the rest.

The guys I'm really wanting to onto are Ford, Young, Miller... of our top guys at least.

It's not to say that you might trade a guy who is good...

One of the prospects the Astros traded? Teoscar Hernandez.