Mariner Talk Chat Forum

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bpj wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:45 am

And then there was you scoffing that they were nowhere near contending unless they signed 3 or 4 $200 million dollar contracts, so why even waste the dollars?

Jesus you stupid fuck... They're competitive because a bullpen nobody anticipated being put together has made them competitive. They're competitive because 3 guys who nobody even wanted have pitched to a 2.04 ERA over 84 innings and have been vital in preserving extremely minimal leads that 99% of teams in history throw away.

I shouldn't have to explain this anymore.

The Mariners currently have the best record in major league history with a -44 run differential and IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE.

You're gonna sit here and tell me that the M's at a -44 run differential should be 48-42? I posted that graphic the other day that showed you where the M's sit given their average differential per game and their record compared to every team in MLB history. They're a huge outlier and it's taken a totally dominant bullpen that you or nobody else could have anticipated for them to get there.

You think if you told Nelson Cruz that Chargois, Steck and Sewald would form one of the best tandems in Major League baseball and preserve enough wins that the M's would be competitive that he'd believe you and sign on up?

He didn't believe the M's would be competitive and he had no reason to believe otherwise.

No, THE GUYS WHO ACCOUNTED FOR THOSE NEGATIVE RUNS SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN HERE.

That's why I wanted to add Walker (and Musgrove) and Cruz.

Those 3 players would have forced all the riffraff we've seen in LF, including Kelenic, and SP's starting games they have no business starting, to stay in the minors.

Gilbert and Kelenic likely would still have been injury callups. Just not all the bums.

bpj wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:47 am

Thays where you're wrong. Injuries have been opportunities since the dawn of minor league baseball. You got wrecked.

Injuries don't lend to opportunity that gives you a 2.04 ERA over 84 innings from 3 journeymen relievers that nobody wanted.

The vast majority of the time injuries lead to a guy who is supposed to fail and more often than not does.

IStillLoveTheMs wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:56 am

bpj wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:47 am

Thays where you're wrong. Injuries have been opportunities since the dawn of minor league baseball. You got wrecked.

Injuries don't lend to opportunity that gives you a 2.04 ERA over 84 innings from 3 journeymen relievers that nobody wanted.

The vast majority of the time injuries lead to a guy who is supposed to fail and more often than not does.

Keep hanging your hat on those relievers

We expected that production from guys like Montero. The relievers are upside down. We still expected similar production.

They're even on a better pace than I predicted. I'll give the relievers credit for that!

bpj wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:55 am

No, THE GUYS WHO ACCOUNTED FOR THOSE NEGATIVE RUNS SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN HERE.

That's why I wanted to add Walker (and Musgrove) and Cruz.

Those 3 players would have forced all the riffraff we've seen in LF, including Kelenic, ans starting games they have no business starting, to stay in the minors.

Gilbert and Kelenic likely would still have been injury callups. Just not all the bums.

You have no way of knowing what would have happened if you had signed those players. But you can logically assume that if the M's had done what you wanted them to that there would also be a number of guys not contributing to the level they currently are.

Example:

You asked the M's to sign Colome more than once... lets say he stays healthy and that means they don't sign Sewald. Colome is currently pitching to 4.83 ERA... Sewald to a 1.40...

Lets say signing a LF keeps Fraley in AAA...

The moves they made have led to this point... doing something different this off season would have led to completely different results. Maybe the results would have been better... maybe they would have been worse...

But you can't take the current 48-42 and say, "Oh I wish they would have signed x, y, z" because it would have changed the entire outcome had they done that.

Then Lewis' injury opened the spot for Fraley very fast. That's why you want that depth.

There was no good excuse for not filling black holes. They were all depth moves, not forcing anyone out.

They'd be much better than 48-42 right now with the added good players.

bpj wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:59 am

IStillLoveTheMs wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:56 am

bpj wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 8:47 am

Thays where you're wrong. Injuries have been opportunities since the dawn of minor league baseball. You got wrecked.

Injuries don't lend to opportunity that gives you a 2.04 ERA over 84 innings from 3 journeymen relievers that nobody wanted.

The vast majority of the time injuries lead to a guy who is supposed to fail and more often than not does.

Keep hanging your hat on those relievers

We expected that production from guys like Montero. The relievers are upside down. We still expected similar production.

They're even on a better pace than I predicted. I'll give the relievers credit for that!

Really, you anticipated Montero, who pitched to a 4.08 ERA in 2020 and had a career ERA well above 5.00 before he joined the Mariners to pitch to the level that Steck, Chargois and Sewald have? 2.04 over 84...

Again, you're going to stand by that?

bpj wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 11, 2021 9:04 am

Then Lewis' injury opened the spot for Fraley very fast. That's why you want that depth.

There was no good excuse for not filling black holes. They were all depth moves, not forcing anyone out.

They'd be much better than 48-42 right now with the added good players.

I don't believe that's true.

Many teams have much better players than we do and they aren't 48-42.

It's about how the season shakes out... there's luck thrown in... there's skill... but relying on injuries to pave the way for 3x relievers to save your season isn't the traditional way it shakes out and is not a way anyone anticipated.

Eff yeah, I stand by the fact that some spaghetti was bound to stick and we already had a solid foundation.

They're on an even better pace than I predicted thanks to the bullpen, clearly I didn't call their success beyond being good enough.