2021 MLB DRAFT Prospect Watch

[Sexymarinersfan]

4. Boston Red Sox

Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

Say what you will about the occasional velo dip, Rocker has arguably been the most consistent performer on any mound in 2021. He’s been 92-95 MPH with his fastball, topping out at 96 MPH of late. A small tick behind the 98s he was touching in March. Command has come and gone during starts, specifically with the fastball, but he’s been a grinder and posted strong box scores almost every night out. The secondaries in Rocker’s arsenal are also awfully impressive, particularly the slider. It’s a true 70-grade breaking ball with extreme tilt, specifically vertically. The cutter may not be far behind. He’s been trying to throw more change-ups, though he’s still got some work to do with feel for the pitch. Boston certainly will have a tough decision to make here with this being the potential starting point for where Henry Davis could go. There’s also Jackson Jobe to consider. However, Rocker is a steady performer with a premium body; a guy that could eventually see a big league mound in 2023 or even sooner.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall

There may not be a player in the entire country who did more for his draft stock than Jobe in the last calendar year. The Heritage Hall blue-chip has everything teams dream on when it comes to prep arms. He’s extremely athletic, equipped with sound, repeatable mechanics and comes fully loaded with an arsenal that would make a B-52 Bomber blush. The fastball has been clocked up to 99, but routinely sits 94-97. The slider bores into the zone at over 3000 RPM, exceeding 3350 RPM last summer; truly elite spin. He mixes in a changeup that has developed from a below average offering to a potential solid average weapon, especially against lefty bats. Jobe is far and away the best mix of current stuff and projectability amongst the prep arms in this class. There are teams interested in Jobe prior to the 5th pick in the draft, so Baltimore’s interest in guys like Kumar Rocker, Brady House, Harry Ford and Henry Davis should certainly be monitored here as we approach July. If Jobe falls out of the top five, we keep hearing he won’t fall very far further.


6. Arizona Diamondbacks

Henry Davis, Catcher, Louisville

In a year where it’s easy to point out warts among the college bats, Davis stands out as being one of the more reliably safe picks in the class. That said, he certainly doesn’t lack ceiling. At the plate, it’s an extremely advanced, mature approach with a line drive oriented swing and double-plus brute strength. Davis figures to hit for a plus average and take a generous helping of walks as a pro whilst avoiding running up high strikeout rates.He couples that with plus raw power that he should be able to use most of. Davis is ultra-physical and comes with an edge and fire to his game that shouldn’t be discounted in the “pros” section of your venn diagram. He’s a clubhouse and dugout icon and should help rally a team and it’s staff similar to how Mike Zunino and Salvador Perez are revered. With guys like Blake Walston, Bryce Jarvis and Slade Cecconi on the way, the Diamondbacks will be in good hands with Davis running the show. 

[Sexymarinersfan]

Keith Law's recent Top 100; 1-50

This year’s draft class is … hold on, it just changed again. It’s not great at the top, maybe not even through the first round, but I still see plenty of depth here, even in the much-maligned college hitter crop – there are still plenty of players to get us through the first few rounds, and as a longtime friend of mine who’s been a scout, a director, and a VP likes to say, “You can’t pass.” (Well, you can, technically, but he’s right that it’s a career-limiting move to do so.) It’s a good year for real scouting, and raise a glass to the teams that chose to keep their scouts, because they’ll be better equipped to assess this class in the absence of so much of the summer and year-prior data that can help drive draft decisions in a normal year.

This list includes draft-eligible players from four- and two-year colleges as well as high schools, and the players are ranked without regard to where I think they’ll be selected or to their signability (expected bonus demands). Some guys on here won’t sign, or won’t be drafted anywhere near where I have them ranked, and it will have nothing to do with their talent. And, again, this is not a mock draft. I’m ranking the players as if I were picking them myself, although The Athletic has yet to give me any sort of budget to sign players. They won’t come off the board this way in July.

1. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Davis is now hitting .389/.511/.671 for the Cardinals, walking more than he’s struck out, with power, patience, bat control, and a plus arm. He also offers some certainty in a draft class with very little of it. For more on Davis, check out my in-person scouting report from April.

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas

Lawlar has the best package of tools in the draft class, with the potential for all five depending on his hit tool, which is the main question scouts still offer about him as a prospect. He’s very quick-twitch with bat speed and power, but he’ll be 19 at the draft and hasn’t faced great competition this spring to raise confidence in how he’ll hit pro pitching.

3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA)

Mayer is a left-handed hitting shortstop who doesn’t have the pure upside of Lawlar, but may be a more advanced hitter for his age. He has a great swing with good balance and the potential for plus power, and he’s a potential 60 defender at short as well.

4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

Rocker’s up-and-down spring might knock him down a few pegs on draft boards, but he can still show a plus fastball/plus breaking ball combination and has the size to be a durable, 200-inning starter, needing primarily to improve his command and show more consistency when working with men on base.

5. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

My No. 1 prospect in my last two rankings, Leiter had two bad starts in a row, then missed last weekend’s start as a very late scratch that the coaching staff said was to “monitor his innings.” He has great deception and a fastball that misses bats in the zone, with a delivery he repeats to eventually get to 55 or better command. We just have to see him pitch again.

6. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

Frelick looks like a future MLB leadoff hitter, with a strong eye, high contact rates, and above-average speed. He’s shown he can generate enough power from his 5-foot-10 frame to make hard contact, albeit probably without much power. He moved to centerfield this year and has shown enough to be a plus defender there.

7. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

McLain got off to a slow start this year but has hit more consistently and with more power as the season has gone on, making him one of the higher-floor bats in the class, and scouts now see more reason to believe he can stay at shortstop in the majors. He’s out indefinitely with a broken thumb suffered last week, however.

8. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS

Watson’s season only started during the last week of April, but he showed enough last year to end up in the top-10 picks, with above-average tools across the board, strength for hard contact, and enough speed and athleticism to stay at shortstop with some work.

9. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, GA)

Ford is a high school catcher — a very risky demographic in the draft — but scouts talk about his athleticism more than anything else, which is unusual for any catching prospect, especially his plus speed. He’s also very strong, and coupled with his huge bat speed and good balance even through a big stride in the box, he looks like he’ll get to power as well.

10. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)

Bachman has been up to 102 mph as a starter with a plus slider in the low 90s, with some effort but not so much that he couldn’t stick in the rotation. He missed two starts earlier this spring, but the RedHawks’ coaching staff eased him back in after his return and he showed the same electric stuff he had before he was shut down.

11. Brady House, 3B/SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, GA)

House has the best exit velocities in the draft class with huge power, and he’s on the younger end of the spectrum for this draft, turning 18 in early June. He’s played shortstop but is going to move to third base in pro ball, while the main question scouts have is where his hit tool is, as he struggled some last summer and fall against better competition but showed well this spring when facing Dylan Lesko, one of the top high school pitching prospects for 2022.

12. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

Cusick has one of the best fastballs in the draft, into the upper 90s with enough life that nobody can hit it, so while his breaking ball is inconsistent and his changeup — more like a low-90s two-seamer — is a work-in-progress, he offers top-10 upside with more downside risk.

13. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

Wicks is the “safe” college lefty, with a plus-plus changeup and excellent feel to pitch, working to both sides of the plate with the fastball, although he’s been hit a little bit more than you’d like this spring and the breaking ball is a clear third pitch for him.

14. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

Cowser continues to hit for average, improving as the season has progressed, with strong contact rates, although he went four weeks without homering before hitting one on Sunday against Arkansas-Little Rock and projects to hit more for average than for power in pro ball.

15. Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, SC)

Taylor is committed to Clemson for football and baseball, a star high school quarterback who’d move to a wide or slot receiver role if he got to campus … but he’s probably never going to get there, as he’s flying up MLB Draft boards because of his athleticism, plus speed, and feel to hit. He’s a true centerfielder who’s put on some muscle since the fall and might end up with average power.

16. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City)

Jobe checks every box for a high school pitcher except possibly in his delivery; he’s an outstanding athlete (and a prospect as a shortstop, too) with a four-pitch mix who has feel for the changeup and who can alter the shape on his slider at will, with good spin rates on the slider and his mid-90s fastball. There’s some effort in the delivery and some scouts don’t love how he finishes, but you can’t risk changing anything given the stuff. His biggest risk factor is just who he is – a high school pitcher.

17. Braden Montgomery, OF, Madison Central (MS) HS

Speaking of history that isn’t great, Mississippi high school position players are historically among the worst classes of players, especially given how much baseball they play there — but Montgomery, a Stanford commit, looks more advanced than most of his peers, and has three plus tools already with his power, speed, and glove in center. He’s a switch-hitter with a quiet approach from both sides of the plate and good hand acceleration.

18. Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (Bogart, GA)

Chandler is a two-way prospect and also a quarterback who’s committed to Clemson, but his brightest future is on the mound, where he’s got a fast arm, above-average velocity, and feel to spin a curveball, although the history of quarterbacks-turned-pitchers isn’t great.

19. Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS (Brookline, MA)

Baez is a huge upside play, as he’s very strong with a powerful swing and will be barely 18 at the draft, but he hasn’t faced any good pitching this spring and there’s concern about the amount of swing-and-miss he’s shown going back to the summer. It’s elite power for a high school kid, and he has the plus arm to profile as a solid right fielder.

20. Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami (FL)

Del Castillo came into the year as a potential top-10 pick because of the widespread impression that he had one of the best pure bats in the college class, but he hasn’t performed at all — he’s at .301/.405/.449 on the season, with a high contact rate but none of production he showed as a freshman in 2019. He’s adequate at best behind the plate with a below-average arm, so either he has to move to first base, where he really has to hit, or someone has to bet that they can improve his receiving enough to make him a definite catcher.

21. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Preparatory School (Pennsauken, NJ)

Solometo is the best high school lefty in the class, with a loose, electric arm, a fastball up to 95 with good life, and a hard curveball that he can use to hitters on both sides of the plate. His arm swing is a little long but he repeats it very well for strikes and future command.

22. Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) HS

Pacheco is a power-hitting third baseman with a strong left-handed swing and solid defense already at third, although the way he opens up his front side through contact might give him trouble against better pitching, especially when he sees more left-handers.

23. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

Madden has two above-average pitches now and fills the zone with fastballs, although his high arm slot makes it hard for him to throw a solid changeup or to get to above-average command down the line.

24. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (Fort Lauderdale, FL)

Painter is the classic high school right-hander with some now velocity but projection you can dream on, and he’s bounced back from a rough first few outings to show better control and more of a breaking ball.

25. Dylan Smith, RHP, Alabama

Smith is an unusual prospect as a college pitcher who’s still more projection than present stuff, with a good delivery and the athleticism scouts love to see in development candidates. He has above-average control but below-average command and a change-up that he needs to use more to develop it.

26. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida

Mace should be the first or second college senior taken this July, a high-floor, back-end starter with plus control and an above-average curveball he will probably use more once he gets into pro ball, although his chance to really cash in has faded with just a so-so performance this year.

27. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

Hill went into the year as one of the top three college arms in the class but went down early in the year with Tommy John surgery. Prior to that he’d shown three above-average to plus pitches, touching 98, with plus control, and he seemed to have the size for durability, but had a history of minor injuries.

28. Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) HS

Montgomery looks every bit the part of a first-rounder and can show plus power and above-average speed, but he has a big hitch in his swing that already leads to some swing and miss, so he’s a player development project with huge two-way upside if he can simplify his approach.

29. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP/SS, Nebraska

Schwellenbach is the shortstop-closer for the Huskers and is a prospect both ways, perhaps for some team looking to create another two-way player, but his real upside is as a future starter, as he’s athletic, has a starter’s delivery, and in relief has been up to 97 with a plus slider and change-up.

30. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

Ole Miss announced on Tuesday that Hoglund will undergo Tommy John surgery, just a few days after he was pulled from his Friday start only 18 pitches into the outing. Hoglund had been extremely consistent most of the spring and looked like he’d be the next college starter taken after the Vandy boys, offering less upside but high probability that he’d at least develop into a fourth starter.

31. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

Wilson’s had a strange year, losing much of his power (he has 6 homers) but becoming nearly impossible to strike out, with a K rate under 10 percent. I said last time around that he’d need to show more power to profile as a corner guy, but if he can keep his strikeout rate that low and just make some harder contact of any sort he’d be a favorite of model-based teams.

32. Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland (NJ) HS

Petty is your guy if you want pure arm strength, up to 101 with a very hard slider, but with a high-effort delivery that makes him much more likely to end up a reliever in the long term.

33. Joe Mack, C, Williamsville (NY) East HS

As I write this, Mack’s season still hasn’t begun — his first game is May 14, and his last June 17 — so this is still based on what scouts saw from him in 2020, where he showed a short swing geared for contact and a plus arm, with a body that looks well-suited to the rigors of the position.

34. Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro HS, Enola, PA

Morales might be a tough sign away from his commitment to Vanderbilt, but scouts love his coordination and body control as well as his physical projection; right now he’ll show average stuff but you can put future 55 or 60 grades on all three pitches if you buy into his development.

35. Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic HS, Fort Pierce, FL

Allen is a three-sport star for Carroll Catholic, committed to Florida for baseball, and his athleticism is very clear on the diamond. He has a sweet right-handed swing that should lead to future power and shows the arm for all three outfield spots.

36. Chase Burns, RHP, Beech HS, Gallatin, TN

Burns is a Tennessee commit who’s attracted some comp/second round hype thanks to arm strength that has him touching 97 and a potentially plus slider, although his arm action is one-piece and he doesn’t have great control.

37. Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

Bednar started the year in the Bulldogs’ bullpen but is now their best starter, punching out 13 Gamecocks at South Carolina on Saturday thanks to a plus slider.

38. Ryan Bliss, SS, Auburn

Bliss has raked this year for the Tigers, hitting .366/.431/.623 with just 24 strikeouts in 195 PA, and is a plus runner who has the range for shortstop with an average arm. The debate is really about how much of his power will translate over to wood bats; a team that believes it will would probably take him in the top 40 picks.

39. Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham

Mikulski has been up to 98 this year and shows four pitches, headlined by a change-up with good arm speed. He’s shortened up his arm action and seen big gains in stuff, but his delivery has a lot of effort to it and might push him to the pen. He’s a senior and thus will be valued as a potential under-slot pick by many teams from the 20s onward.

40. Mike McGreevy, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara

McGreevy is a command right-hander who’s been up to 94 but pitched more at 90-91 recently, with good feel to spin his breaking ball and just 8 walks this year in 76 innings.

41. Caedmon Parker, RHP, The Woodlands (TX) Christian Academy

Parker has easy velocity with good feel for his offspeed pitches already, surprising for a football player who’s a recent convert to the mound from shortstop. His arm is very quick, he’s athletic, and there’s a ton of projection left to his 6-5 frame. I’m not really sure what I’m missing here – this is the quintessential high school projection righty.

42. Josh Hartle, LHP, Reagan HS, King, NC

Hartle had some first-round buzz coming into the spring, but a preseason appendectomy has cost him some prep time and some velocity, as he’s been more 86-90 this spring. But he still has the plus curveball and plus changeup he showed last year, and he throws plenty of strikes.

43. Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee (WI) HS

Miller, the younger brother of Pirates prospect Owen, is a switch-hitter with a very good left-handed swing, excellent instincts and at least an even chance to stay at shortstop, even though he doesn’t have a plus tool right now.

44. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS

Kudrna is a projection right-hander with a good delivery and enough present stuff, including the makings of a good slider and potentially plus change-up, along with feel to pitch that he looks like he’ll be someone’s second pick, in the comp or early second rounds, as teams start to target high school pitching after the end of the first.

45. Robert Gasser, LHP, Houston

Gasser’s path to the draft has been a tortuous one — he was at New Mexico as a freshman in 2018, transferred to a junior college in 2019, had an 11.05 ERA in 2020 for Houston, and is now their Friday night starter and a top-two-rounds pick. Gasser is up to 95 but pitches at average, throwing strikes with a three-pitch mix. If he had the track record of Jordan Wicks, he might be a first-rounder.

46. Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Preparatory School, Saraland, AL

Bruns struggled last summer, unable to find the plate after the first event of the season (PG National), but he’s been much better this spring after working to add strength, with a fastball up to 98 mph and a power breaking ball with good spin along with much lower walk rates.

47. Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State

The Canadian-born Black has emerged as one of the best college position players in the draft class and could push himself into the late first round, as he’s hitting .387/.500/.650 this year, still showing great plate discipline but now with more power. He’s played all over the infield but second base is his most likely landing spot.

48. Lonnie White, OF, Malvern (PA) Prep

White is committed to Penn State to play wide receiver for the Nittany Lions, although he’s built more like a linebacker or strong safety and doesn’t have the explosive speed you’d expect for a receiver at any spot. He’s a 50/55 runner after gaining some weight this past offseason (maybe bulking up for football) with bat speed and some loft to his finish for future power, although he looks more like a right fielder than he did a year ago.

49. Connor Norby, 2B, East Carolina

Norby has performed his way into Day 1 status, hitting .415/.475/.688 this spring for the Pirates with newfound pop, although he’s limited to second base by a fringy arm.

50. Joe Rock, RHP, Ohio

Rock missed last spring for academic reasons but has been an ace for the Bobcats this spring, working at 93-94 with an above-average change-up, with his slider starting to develop but still not quite average; that last pitch might be better if his arm wasn’t as late relative to his front leg landing as it is now.

[Sexymarinersfan]

7. Kansas City Royals

Brady House, Shortstop, Winder-Barrow HS

Arguably the most famous name in the 2021 class, House has been a guy to know since he was 15 years old. It’s an extremely physical body with tons of present strength. The raw power is considerable grading out plus or better from everyone we talk to. Defensively, he has a pretty reasonable shot to stick at shortstop as a pro, though if he lands with the Royals, a move to third base may come out of necessity with Bobby Witt Jr. in the fold. The result may be something akin to Matt Chapman; a premier defender at the position with a huge arm. The bat is where scouts seem split. The power is undeniable, but hit grades range anywhere from well below average to solid average as a pro. Some believe House will be a .230 hitter while others opine he’s a future .270-.280 hitter. If it’s the latter, considering the power, House is a superstar in the making. The former would suggest a player similar to Mark Reynolds; a career .235 hitter who runs into close to 300 bombs. The Royals are in on a number of guys with the 7th pick and may ultimately end up with whomever falls into their lap. Some believe the top seven players in this class are a cut above the rest, thus the “wait and see” nature of their draft slot.

8. Colorado Rockies

Kahlil Watson, Shortstop, Wake Forest HS

North Carolina was one of the states that played it cautiously with their season this year, as they are only two weeks into their season. My last video on Watson consisted of loud contact and impressive pull-side pop that will certainly play at the next level. Despite the small frame at 5-foot-11, 170 pounds, Watson is able to generate impressive bat speed thanks to elite hip/shoulder separation, a big factor in Watson’s tremendous power generation. It’s a sweet left-handed swing that has some of the most powerful bat-to-ball skills in this class, though he can get a little anxious and expand the zone at times. Watson has big league instincts in the dirt, whether he eventually ends up at shortstop or second base. It’s an electric profile. Plenty of teams at the top of this draft love his toolset, now it’s just a matter of performing night in and night out. I'm hoping he slides a few more spots down to 12.

9. Los Angeles Angels

Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)

Bachman has seen a meteoric rise this year after his offseason training has really shown out on the diamond. The Angels, maybe more than anyone, could use some juiced infused into their system. Bachman has a repertoire that could play in a big league staff today. The fastball/slider combo is one of the nastiest one-two punches in this draft. It’s comfortably a plus, probably double-plus heater that sits in the high-90’s with plenty of run. Bachman has touched triple digits on a number of occasions this season, up to 101. The slider is just as nasty. It’s a two-plane monster that Bachman can manipulate how he pleases. It’s generally into the upper-80’s, touching 91. Excellent command of this pitch makes it tough for hitters to barrel up. The change-up is his third offering, though it lacks feel and can be inconsistent. He’s been working his way back into form after missing some time early in the season, though Miami has loosened the reins on him lately. Bachman could very well follow the Garrett Crochet route and find himself in the Angels bullpen by year’s end. Ball is in your court, Perry.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Great new Jarred Kelenic T-shirts 4 sale.

https://breakingt.com/products/unleash-the-kelenic

[Sexymarinersfan]

10. New York Mets

Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

It should come as no surprise the Mets are targeting advanced college pitchers in the 2021 draft after their recent surge for big athleticism and upside in recent years. Indeed, a couple years ago, the Mets farm lacked impact, but with a restocked pocket of up-the-middle talent and prep arms, word is New York is looking to go for more “sure things” this go around, especially with a lengthy competitive window conceivably opening. Madden has been one of the most consistent college arms all year and possesses a good blend of size, athleticism and upside the Mets should covet. The fastball is a plus offering, while the breaking ball is above average more often than not, flashing plus. Both project plus pitches by the time he debuts. Madden has struggled to consistently find feel for his changeup in 2021, though with an emphasis on developing the pitch should help him reach his mid-rotation ceiling. There is some reliever risk given the reliance on a two-pitch mix right now, but a majority of the scouts believe he has the blueprint of a future big league starter that can carry heavy innings. Ryan Cusick and Gunnar Hoglund certainly make sense here as well, though Hoglund tore his UCL this season and Cusick’s year has been inconsistent at times.

11. Washington Nationals

Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

Mike Rizzo and loud, projectable college pitchers. Name a more iconic duo. I’ll wait. The Nationals have a type. There’s no doubt about that. Cade Cavalli, Jackson Rutledge, Cole Henry, Seth Romero… it’s just what they like to do at the top of most drafts. Considering it’s a rather paltry year for college hitters, I think they’ll go back to campus and grab another arm that fits their blueprint, and this time around that’s Ryan Cusick. A big, tall, physical righty, Cusick brings the best fastball in the class to the Nationals. The Demon Deacon routinely sits 95-97, touching 101. He couples that with a hammer curveball he likes to throw in the low 80s, as well as a below average changeup he’s still finding feel for. For a 6-foot-6 righty, Cusick has considerable athleticism on the mound, and works downhill quite well. There’s some refinement ahead of him in terms of the fastball shape as well as consistency with the breaking ball, but the final product could end up looking something like Tyler Glasnow, and that’s an arm the Nationals could lean on in their pursuit of another ring. 

12. Seattle Mariners

Harry Ford, Catcher, North Cobb

If the Mariners seem to be targeting hitters on the scouting trail this spring, who can blame them with a farm already fully jacked with pitching talent? It’s a down year for college talent, so I could easily see Seattle dipping into the prep ranks for Harry Ford. The North Cobb backstop has answered any questions scouts have had on his ability to stick behind the plate this spring, but it may be moot. The bat and athleticism will play anywhere on the diamond and will ultimately push his development track. There’s a potential for an above average hitter here with above average power and plus run times. Ford has an above average-to-plus arm that will play anywhere on the field and his twitchiness and explosion should make for an above average defender anywhere on the diamond. Some scouts have questioned the lower hand setup and whether it will work at the pro level, but believers see a Craig Biggio Swiss Army Knife packed into a Marcell Ozuna type of offensive weapon. There is talk he could sneak into the Top 10. The Mariners could go a number of directions here, but I'm reasonably certain a hitter will come off the board. Its not the middle infielder that I've coveted, or C Henry Davis who pushed his value out of reach up the board. But ut is potentially the best player available at 12. Don't be surprised if Dipoto takes another college arm, though at this point no one particular prospect stands out.

[D-train]

There's Bil's Harry Ford at #12. Seattle Mariners.

[Sexymarinersfan]

There's Bil's Harry Ford at #12. Seattle Mariners.

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2021/2/1 ... harry-ford

Here is lookoutlandings writeup on Ford. They have him as a bit of a unicorn. Very good read by Joe Doyle.

Don't be surprised if C Joe Mack is the pick at 12. New York hasn't started baseball yet, and won't until May 22. If Mack shows anything positive in terms of hitting and power he could easily be the pick at 12.

I like OF Colton Cowser too. There's some Jarred Kelenic in there and he could be a plus outfield major leaguer.

Pitcher Gunnar Hoglund is an option too. He was almost assuredly gonna be a Top 10 lock until he went down with Tommy John surgery for the year. And we all know how much Dipoto isn't a afraid to take TJ pitchers. Especially pitchers with 70 grade command like George Kirby, which Hoglund has.

I also have Sal Frelick on the board here and all this kid has done is hit hit and hit, and then hit some more. He's smaller at 5'9, but did I mention he can hit!?

[Sexymarinersfan]

13. Philadelphia Phillies

Sal Frelick, Outfielder/2B, Boston College

If there is anyone on that Boston College squad that has excelled this year, it’s Frelick. There’s a lot to love about the package he brings to the table. It’s a short, compact swing from the left side with impressive bat speed. He’s a 70-grade runner, a potential plus defender out in center field, and has enough arm to hold runners in place. Frelick has hit all season long, and he simply doesn’t strike out. Scouts believe the power ceiling and total star upside may be limited, ultimately pushing him to this point in the draft. He’s cemented himself as one of the premier college bats in a class, a demographic that is several lacking in quality. For the Phillies, a lack of impact outfield bats at the top of their farm system allow Frelick a quick path to the bigs. While there’s a chance that he goes higher than 13th overall, I'm sure the Phillies would be pretty happy to have him fall into their lap here. There's a possibility that some team may try Frelick out at second base. Very intriguing.

14. San Francisco Giants

Matt McLain, Shortstop, UCLA

Like many teams in the early teens, the Giants are sitting, waiting, dealing with a lot of variables when determining who they’ll select. San Francisco is surely in a wait-and-see mode, anxious to see if any of the top talents will tumble a bit into their lap, but one thing remains clear; the Giants draft high-character, clubhouse leaders that will not only contribute on the field, but set the tone for a winning culture. Joey Bart, Hunter Bishop and Patrick Bailey all received extremely high marks in their pre-draft interviews in terms of accountability and elevating those around them. Matt McLain fits that bill. A middle-of-the-diamond player, McLain profiles at shortstop, second base or centerfield and should be a reasonably quick mover through the Giants system. He’s an above average hitter with fringe-average power, though his 70-grade speed and discipline at the plate allow the bat to play up a tick. There’s a number of players
who I think are involved here, so the Giants will likely have a “bucket” of players on their board on July 11 and will pivot accordingly.

15. Milwaukee Brewers

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

After a stellar start to the year, Hoglund has run into some tough luck. He’s out for the year and is scheduled to have Tommy John surgery. However, I don’t believe he’ll fall too far. Hoglund is a “control” arm, a pitcher that has a track record of throwing strikes. Hoglund also saw a big uptick in stuff this year, with three pitches that could be above-average or better at the next level. Scouts are convinced he’s a lock to start at the big league level, and that floor is an easy enough profile to sell. For the Brewers, why not take the gamble? The system lacks top tier pitching after not selecting a single arm in 2020 and they’re a data savvy organization that will appreciate Hoglund’s tunneling characteristics and above average spin rates. He immediately becomes the team’s best pitching prospect besting Ethan Small. It’s a match made in heaven. I wouldn't be mad if Dipoto grabbed him off the board at 12.

[Sexymarinersfan]

16. Miami Marlins

Joshua Baez, Outfielder, Dexter Southfield

Joshua Baez is among the most physically gifted players in this entire class and draws body comparisons to the likes of Jose Canseco and Aaron Judge. It’s bottled violence on the field. It’s potentially 70-grade raw power with a 70-grade arm in right field. He’s currently a plus runner, though most believe that will settle in closer to above average as a pro. Baez’s hit tool will dictate how quickly he moves through a system, and the Marlins are among the best in baseball at developing young, impressionable bats. He’s a potential future middle-of-the-order stick with 25+ homer pop should the hit tool buoy at a level that allows the power to play. The Marlins are in on plenty of talent at pick 16, including guys like Jordan Wicks, Chase Petty, Harry Ford and Peyton Stovall, so anything could happen here. 

17. Cincinnati Reds

Bubba Chandler, RHP, North Oconee

If there’s one team that likes good clay, it’s Cincinnati, and Bubba Chandler is about as malleable as they come. A sublime athlete, Chandler is a two-spot superstar and a do-it-all kind of player. He was the starting quarterback for North Oconee when they won the state title his sophomore year, but gave up football his senior year to focus on baseball. For that reason, most believe he will forego his commitment to Clemson in favor of pro ball. On the diamond, he’s a super-talented switch-hitting shortstop, though most teams fancy Chandler a starting pitcher. On the bump he’s been up to 97 on a number of occasions. He’s got a true four-pitch mix with the slider, curveball and changeup, all of which have flashed above average or better. He’s got an extremely quick arm on the mound and oozes athleticism. Most scouts believe he’s nowhere close to realizing his potential. Chandler may end up a righty sitting 95-98 with two plus secondaries as a pro. The Rockies, Mets, Angels, Nationals, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Marlins have all done a good bit of due diligence on Chandler, so don’t be surprised to see him popped prior to this pick. Chandler is my darkhorse favorite for the draft.

18. St. Louis Cardinals

Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland

The Cardinals have been all over Chase Petty for some time now, and should he fall this far, it feels like a match made in heaven. Randy Flores and St. Louis generally like to sit back, relax, and see what type of premier talent falls into their laps. It happened with Nolan Gorman. It happened with Jordan Walker. Petty becomes next in line. The Cards aren’t afraid of the hard-throwing prep righty demographic, they only see the pure upside, and it’s mammoth. Petty wards off the notions of a volatile arm with prodigious athleticism and sound mechanics that would play out of a big league bullpen right now. He’s routinely 97-99 touching 102 on a number of occasions. He’s got a 4-seam and a 2-seam fastball depending on how he’s looking to shape the fastball for different hitters. He couples that with a hellish 70-grade slider with elite horizontal tilt. The entire arsenal isn’t too dissimilar from Dustin May, but he’s coming at hitters from a lower release and more extension than his contemporary. Petty really improved his command this spring and it’s elevated his draft stock considerably. He’s in play as high as the top ten, but admittedly, not all teams will be in on this sort of profile. 

[Sexymarinersfan]

UPDATED Mock Draft from Callis

Colton Cowser
https://youtu.be/Vci43g3sCpk

1. Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.)
The Pirates appear to be targeting bats over arms at No. 1, with Mayer the frontrunner, fellow high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar also in the mix and Louisville catcher Henry Davis the only realistic college option.

2. Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
After giving up eight homers in a three-start stretch and then taking a week off, Leiter has returned to his dominant ways. If the Rangers go high school shortstop here, don't be shocked if it's Watson over local product Lawlar.

3.Tigers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas)
The Tigers likely would take Mayer or Leiter, though their third choice is less clear. It could be Lawlar, No. 1 in my last first-round projection from three weeks ago, but Detroit may prefer Brady House among the other prep shortstops and could look elsewhere.

4. Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The Red Sox feel like the absolute floor for Leiter, who probably won't get to them. Davis is the best college position player available, the high school shortstops also would be attractive and there are rumblings Boston could cut a deal with a lesser college bat to save money to spend big later.

5. Orioles: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.)
Just because the Orioles took catcher Adley Rutschman with the No. 1 overall pick two years ago, don't rule out Davis, who could easily shift to right field to get the most out of his potent bat. Baltimore has heavily scouted the prep shortstops as well and also could follow a similar path to what it did at No. 2 last June, taking a college position player at a discount to shift bonus-pool money to later selections.

6. D-backs: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Rocker was MLB Pipeline's preseason No. 1-rated prospect and has performed well for much of the season, though there's also some thought that the D-backs may want a hitter here. Of the players who could realistically get to No. 6, Davis might be the preferred choice, and Arizona also has scouted House and Watson extensively.

7. Royals: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS
Many clubs don't believe Watson actually will last this long. If he doesn't, the Royals could turn to Rocker or whichever high school shortstop is left on the board.

8. Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City)
Jobe might have the best slider in the Draft, his fastball and changeup can flash as plus-plus pitches and he pounds the strike zone, so he might overcome the bias against prep righties and go significantly higher than this. If they look beyond the consensus top tier, the Rockies could go for a college bat, such as outfielders Colton Cowser (Sam Houston) or Sal Frelick (Boston College) or shortstop Matt McLain (UCLA).

9. Angels: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
The Angels likely would scoop up any of the top eight players if they make it to No. 9. There are differing schools of thought that they otherwise would prefer a college product (McLain, Frelick, Texas right-hander Ty Madden) or a Georgia prepster (right-hander shortstop Bubba Chandler, catcher Harry Ford).

10. Mets: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
The Mets may be zeroing in on college bats such as Frelick, Cowser and McLain, with Madden the best bet if they opt for a college arm.

11. Nats: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
The Nationals covet Jobe, and while the pitchers they adored fell to them in 2019 (Jackson Rutledge at No. 17) and 2020 (Cade Cavalli at No. 22), it would take a miracle for that to happen again. Like Garrett Crochet, who went to the White Sox in this spot last June, Bachman has a pair of wipeout pitches and could help in the big leagues very soon, though this is his ceiling because he comes with more reliever risk than the other first-round college arms.

12. Mariners: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
After scoring with three straight college pitchers (Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock) in the first round, the Mariners could stick with what works and target Madden, Bachman or Kansas State left-hander Jordan Wicks. Everytime i get excited about a prospect, they shoot up the board. Its getting frustrating. My first infatuation had us taking C Henry Davis, who has played himself into possibly going number 1 overall. Next came SS Khalil Watson, who's been surging as of late mainly because his season just got underway not too long ago. He's got strong skills across the board. Then 2B/CF Matt McLain. McLain is a poor man's Alex Bregman, who is the type of player that should be in the league 10-15 years. No, the only player(s) that have risen out of our reach only to slide back are pitchers Gunnar Hoglund and Jaden Hill, and finally OF Colton Cowser. Hill was looking like a sure fire top 5 lock with Hoglund going in the top 10 with the best command. Both have been shut down for the season with TJ injuries. Dipoto has not shied away from taking an injured TJ pitcher before, but the draft is different. Then there's Cowser. There's some Jarred Kelenic to his game. Good college hitter mixed in with some pop, all bundled up into a tight package. However, if the M's don't pounce on a 4th college arm in Ty Madden, Hoglund is my favorite to come off the board at 12 if this was how the draft scenario went down. Otherwise I'd prefer hitters such as Watson, McLain, or Cowser. Don't be surprised if C Harry Ford or Joe Mack get taken. Reports are that Seattle has heavily scouted both prep catchers. OF I'm not sure Sal Frelick won't be able to produce enough extra base pop in the show to ever play a corner outfield position, but he will hit, and hit for a lot!

13. Phillies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Lewisberry, Pa.)
The Phillies aren't tied to any specific demographic and have been linked to college position players (Cowser, Frelick) and pitchers (Madden, Wicks, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick) as well as high school bats such as homestate product Montgomery. They also may be the ceiling for fast-rising New Jersey prep left-hander Anthony Solometo.

14. Giants: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Montgomery, who might have the best all-around tools in the Draft, and Wicks, clearly the top lefty available, are the two names most often mentioned with the Giants.

15. Brewers: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston
The most likely scenario for the Brewers is to take whichever of the college bats remains among Cowser, Frelick and McLain. Cowser could go ahead of both depending on how the Draft plays out and this feels like his floor.

16. Marlins: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)
The Marlins are associated with a lot of the best high school athletes, such as Ford (who can run a 6.42-second 60-yard dash and play anywhere on the diamond), Montgomery and outfielder Will Taylor.

17. Reds: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (Bogart, Ga.)
Also a Clemson football recruit as a quarterback, Chandler is the Draft's best two-way prospect and teams are split on whether he offers more upside as a right-hander or a shortstop.

18. Cardinals: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
An almost-certain top-10 pick before blowing out his elbow earlier this month and requiring Tommy John surgery, Hoglund is still a lock first-rounder as an advanced college starter.

19. Blue Jays: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Fabian has overcome severe swing-and-miss issues earlier in the season to challenge for the NCAA Division I home run lead while remaining one of the best college athletes available, so he has played his way back into the first round.

20. Yankees: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (East Amherst, N.Y.)
For whatever reason, the Yankees seem to be linked to more different players than any club, including the same high school athletes as the Marlins as well as Mack, who would be their third first-round catcher in the last four Drafts. They could be the first team to take Nebraska two-way star Spencer Schwellenbach, whom they prefer as a shortstop.

21. Cubs: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
No college prospect in this projection has climbed boards more than McGreevy, who ranked second in NCAA D-I with a 104/10 K/BB ratio and also endears himself to teams with his pitch metrics. His polish could appeal to the Cubs, who have struggled to develop arms.

22. White Sox: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
The White Sox invested $7.1 million in premium high school right-handers (Jared Kelley, Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist) in the last two Drafts, though they didn't take any of them in the first round. It's unlikely they could push Painter all the way to their next pick at No. 57, however. Chicago could be the peak for Indiana prep third baseman Colson Montgomery, who's generating a lot of recent first-round buzz.

23. Indians: Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS (Brookline, Mass.)
After spending their last six first-round selections on high schoolers, the Indians appear headed down that road again. Baez provides one of the best combinations of power and arm strength available, and other prep candidates include Ford, Mack, Taylor, Solometo, right-hander Chase Petty and second baseman Peyton Stovall.

24. Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick has run his fastball up to 102 mph this spring, but his stock dipped somewhat when he posted a 6.46 ERA in his final four starts. The Braves also like McGreevy and Schwellenbach more than most teams.

25. Athletics: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, S.C.)
Most teams believe Taylor will opt for baseball over playing two sports at Clemson, where he'd double as a wide receiver. The Athletics could be the earliest option for two other prep position players, shortstop Alex Mooney and third baseman Izaac Pacheco.

26. Twins: Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
If the Twins can help MLB Pipeline's preseason No. 4-rated prospect rediscover his power, Del Castillo could be a late first-round steal. Another polished college bat, South Alabama outfielder Ethan Wilson, also could factor in here.

27. Padres: Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep (Pennsauken Township, N.J.)
Solometo is gaining traction as the second-best left-hander and second-best high school pitcher in the 2021 crop, and the Padres have scouted him heavily in recent weeks.

28. Rays: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
The younger brother of Pirates reliever David Bednar, he has boosted his stock by displaying a plus fastball and slider and improved control all spring.

29. Dodgers: Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton (La.) HS
Stovall might be the best pure hitter in the Draft -- college or high school -- but position questions could allow the Dodgers to grab him at the bottom of the first round.