Very good assessment from USS Mariner

[bpj]

Guessing we'll see France/Moore at 2B next season with Torrens/White at 1B with Torrens/Haniger at DH. There isn't really room for Haniger in the OF since they didn't trade him.

They'll make an excuse about getting close but not close enough on free agents.

Can't overpay and leverage the future, after all.

[AT Funchal-Madeira]

Bottom line:

Lost: A solid mid-innings reliever, a closer–who was an extension candidate, and 2 rising prospects.

Gained: The arbitration years of a closer, an unproven infielder, however promising, and a rental, back-end starter.

We do need to give up more quantity to get higher quality.... That wasn't accomplished. I have the fearful feeling we are going to suffer for a year or so with this fricking closer.... He's a slow assed grinder who looks prone to giving up some hard hit balls..... especially the slow part... takes forever to deliver the pitch...The Rodney experience??? only stretched out, slow and agonizing to make the experience more brutal to fans...

[ddraig]

I'd go for Semien, But we won't go for both. That would push Crawford and his streaky bat back to the 9 hole. Without Seager's .218 batting average and 100 plus strikeouts, just adding Semien is a plus. And if Torrens can continue hitting as he is doing, maybe we don't need a DH as we can use Raleigh and Torrens there. Presuming we keep Murphy, of course.

[bpj]

I'm content with Sewald closing if the new guy struggles.

My concern is they'll count on guys like Torrens and Fraley who then show up and pull a Dylan Moore with no production.

[Sexymarinersfan]

But the M’s *real* contending year is 2022, right? Won’t they have more/better chances then? Here’s the rub: I honestly don’t know, but I kind of doubt it. Dipoto’s repeatedly said that the rebuild may be a bit ahead of schedule, but I think looking at *how* this unlikely team got to 55 wins is instructive. If the team got to 55 because the young stars that they’ve been hyping arrived and immediately put the league on notice, that would be one thing. If they got there partially through breakout years, and partly through unreal performances by non-roster invitees, journeymen, and sequencing, that would be rather another.

I’ve said for a while that something seems off in how the M’s hitters handle the transition from the minors to the majors. This season began with Evan White and Taylor Trammell face-planting. White’s now rehabbing a serious injury, and Trammell is in AAA. Jarred Kelenic finally made his debut, and has…hit worse than Evan White, somehow. The stars of previous ad campaigns like Shed Long and Marco Gonzales have had down years. The team really made the case that Justus Sheffield was an elite starter after 2020, then watched him put up a sub-replacement level campaign in 2021. Now, all of this could turn around, of course. Young players can be volatile. But it has to be at least a little concerning that the M’s have whiffed on so many young hitters. Kyle Lewis hit right from the get-go, and while he’s had some severe ups and downs, he can’t be lumped in with the rest of these guys. JP Crawford has been, well, I guess it depends a bit on what month we’re looking at, but he’s still a starting MLB SS. But it does not take a completely contrarian, needlessly-negative view to worry that next year might not be a walk in the park, *even with* positive regression from Kelenic, Trammell, Sheffield-and-or-Dunn, Gonzales, etc.

Because of that, I think punting on 2021 would make no sense. Yes, the team may be better from a true talent standpoint (and even that’s debatable), but if this year’s taught us anything, it’s that true talent does not correlate to wins 1:1. When you’re in a position to win, I think you’ve got to improve your team. I’ll be honest, I’m fine with the M’s not trading any of their top 5 prospects. I don’t think you go hog-wild just because you’re a game out of the second wild card. But you can’t just say “our prospects will lead us to glory” when Kelenic, Trammell, White, Sheffield, Long, etc. are playing the way they are.

http://www.ussmariner.com/

Good stuff DT! When/If the M’s miss the playoffs (a 95% probability before the deadline frenzy began) Dipoto will be blamed for these trades. It won’t be fair.

(The Ms have been extremely lucky with wins, but also very unlucky with injuries (6 SPs!).

[bpj]

You're right.

What he should be blamed for is not adding the necessary pieces when it was obvious what should be done last offseason.

There is nobody to blame but Dipoto for this. He failed to set the team up for success.

[ddraig]

But he can make up for it by getting the needed pieces this offseason. Still, it will depend on making the playoffs in 2022. He's bought himself another year, but he depends on many factors beyond his control. Consistency, growth, prospects being ready, health, etc. All, by themself, could derail a "playoff" season.

[D-train]

But the M’s *real* contending year is 2022, right? Won’t they have more/better chances then? Here’s the rub: I honestly don’t know, but I kind of doubt it. Dipoto’s repeatedly said that the rebuild may be a bit ahead of schedule, but I think looking at *how* this unlikely team got to 55 wins is instructive. If the team got to 55 because the young stars that they’ve been hyping arrived and immediately put the league on notice, that would be one thing. If they got there partially through breakout years, and partly through unreal performances by non-roster invitees, journeymen, and sequencing, that would be rather another.

I’ve said for a while that something seems off in how the M’s hitters handle the transition from the minors to the majors. This season began with Evan White and Taylor Trammell face-planting. White’s now rehabbing a serious injury, and Trammell is in AAA. Jarred Kelenic finally made his debut, and has…hit worse than Evan White, somehow. The stars of previous ad campaigns like Shed Long and Marco Gonzales have had down years. The team really made the case that Justus Sheffield was an elite starter after 2020, then watched him put up a sub-replacement level campaign in 2021. Now, all of this could turn around, of course. Young players can be volatile. But it has to be at least a little concerning that the M’s have whiffed on so many young hitters. Kyle Lewis hit right from the get-go, and while he’s had some severe ups and downs, he can’t be lumped in with the rest of these guys. JP Crawford has been, well, I guess it depends a bit on what month we’re looking at, but he’s still a starting MLB SS. But it does not take a completely contrarian, needlessly-negative view to worry that next year might not be a walk in the park, *even with* positive regression from Kelenic, Trammell, Sheffield-and-or-Dunn, Gonzales, etc.

Because of that, I think punting on 2021 would make no sense. Yes, the team may be better from a true talent standpoint (and even that’s debatable), but if this year’s taught us anything, it’s that true talent does not correlate to wins 1:1. When you’re in a position to win, I think you’ve got to improve your team. I’ll be honest, I’m fine with the M’s not trading any of their top 5 prospects. I don’t think you go hog-wild just because you’re a game out of the second wild card. But you can’t just say “our prospects will lead us to glory” when Kelenic, Trammell, White, Sheffield, Long, etc. are playing the way they are.

http://www.ussmariner.com/

Good stuff DT! When/If the M’s miss the playoffs (a 95% probability before the deadline frenzy began) Dipoto will be blamed for these trades. It won’t be fair.

(The Ms have been extremely lucky with wins, but also very unlucky with injuries (6 SPs!).

That Fangraphs 5% probability for a team 1 game back in the loss column is complete horseshit. Tell you what, if it is only 5% then I am happy bet $50 we make the playoffs at those 20-1 odds, if we make it, I get $1000 and I pay $50 if we don't. Only a lunatic would do that.

[D-train]

Guessing we'll see France/Moore at 2B next season with Torrens/White at 1B with Torrens/Haniger at DH. There isn't really room for Haniger in the OF since they didn't trade him.

They'll make an excuse about getting close but not close enough on free agents.

Can't overpay and leverage the future, after all.

I swear to God if White doesn't hit over a 800 OPS during ST and the hand him the starting job again for the 3rd year in a row, I will absolutely lose it.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Good stuff DT! When/If the M’s miss the playoffs (a 95% probability before the deadline frenzy began) Dipoto will be blamed for these trades. It won’t be fair.

They were 1 game behind the A's. They had a lot better shot than 5% if Jerry is more aggressive. But they were already clearly a better team than earlier this season.

Whatever, i'm just glad only two prospects were lost in these deals and no top five.