D-trains WAR and win projections

[D-train]

I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5
JK 1.7
8.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7
Evan White, 1B 1.3
Ty France, IF 3.5
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1
12.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8
Luis Torrens 1.2
3.0

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6
Team Wins: 92.2

Wow! I thought I would be at like 77 wins. Where am I being too optimistic? Maybe France? Other than him I don't think any of my individual WARs are crazy. Let me know if so.

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[D-train]

I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5
JK 1.7
8.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7
Evan White, 1B 1.3
Ty France, IF 3.5
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1
12.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8
Luis Torrens 1.2
3.0

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6
Team Wins: 92.2

Wow! I thought I would be at like 77 wins. Where am I being too optimistic? Maybe France? Other than him I don't think any of my individual WARs are crazy. Let me know if so.

So they have 11 WAR for position players and 14 for pitchers and I have 24.2 for position players and 20.4 for pitchers. So I am projecting 19.6 more WAR/wins. 92.2 vs. 72.6.

[bpj]

I forgot we picked up Elias. Have always like him.

We could have an underdog, surprising bullpen like we did in the Wilhelmsen era.

[D-train]

I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:

Marco Gonzales, LHP 3.5
Paxton 2.7
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.3
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.0
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2
Logan Gilbert RHP 1.6
Total: 15.4

Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 1.2
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.5
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2
Steckenrider, RHP .8
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3
Vest, RHP 0.5
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1
5.0

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1
Jake Fraley, 4th OFer 0.3
Trammell, LF 1.5
JK 1.7
9.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7
Evan White, 1B 1.3
Ty France, IF 2.5
Haggarty, IF -0.1
11.9

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8
Luis Torrens 1.2
3.0

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6
Team Wins: 92.2

Wow! I thought I would be at like 77 wins. Where am I being too optimistic? Maybe France? Other than him I don't think any of my individual WARs are crazy. Let me know if so.

Just updated this with the actual roster.

[bpj]

I like us between 81 and 90 wins. Could go either way depending on injuries.

I don't think White and Crawford will be black holes to the level that Mallex/Dee were, except for the fact that White plays a premier offensive position so his WAR will sink like a brick if his OPS doesn't show up at .750+.

Anything under .700 OPS for a 1B would probably be on par with a .500 from a CF because more offense is expected from 1B in general White has a higher bar to clear just to be average.

[D-train]

Too bad we didn't get Pete Alonso instead of Gerson Bautista as the third piece of the Cano trade. lol

[D-train]

I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:
Actuals in red

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5 0.6
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5 1.1
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7 3.0
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7 -0.3
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5 0.5 Nailed it!
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2 0.0
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3 2.2 Nailed it!
Total: 15.4 Total: 7.1
Anderson 0.9
Actual Grand Total: 8.0


Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7 0.3
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3 0.0
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2 0.8 Nailed it if he hadn't been traded
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08 0.0
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3 1.1
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5 0.4 Almost nailed it
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7 -0.1
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1 0.6
5.0 Actual: 3.1
Sewald: 1.4
Steck: 1.3
JT Chargois: 0.5
Smith: 0.5
Santiago: 0.4
Actual Grand total: 7.2

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7 0.3
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1 2.7
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3 0.4
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5 -0.4
JK 1.7 -0.7
8.3 Actual: 2.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2 2.6
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3 3.1
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7 0.2
Evan White, 1B 1.3 -0.7
Ty France, IF 3.5 3.6 Nailed it!
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1 -0.5
12.9 Actual 8.3
Toro: 0.7
Grand total actual: 9.0

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8 1.0
Luis Torrens 1.2 0.2
3.0 Actual 1.2

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6 Actual: 27.7
Team Wins: 92.2 75.3

Wow! I thought I would be at like 77 wins. Where am I being too optimistic? Maybe France? Other than him I don't think any of my individual WARs are crazy. Let me know if so.

OMG I just went back and checked this and I came up with 92.2 WINS!!!! Same as Lynda's random guess!!!!

Check out how off I was on individual WAR though. lol

[gil]

Actual WAR is way below actual performance. D-train's predicted WAR is very close to actual performance.

Go Ms!

[bpj]

Actual WAR is way below actual performance. D-train's predicted WAR is very close to actual performance.

Go Ms!

Maybe an indicator that WAR is severely undervaluing good relief pitchers. No higher leverage situation than protecting the most valuable thing in baseball- the lead.

The difference between a 0 WAR reliever and a 1.5 WAR reliever is a lot more than one and a half blown games in my opinion

Sewald has 1.4 WAR in 64.2 innings
Misiewicz has a .6 WAR in 54 innings
Middleton had a 0 WAR in 31 innings

For that matter, Sewalds 1.4 compared to Justus Sheffields -.3 should show a much larger difference imo. Sheffield had a 6.83 ERA in 80 innings.

Less than a 2 game swing in wins is preposterous between those two.

[D-train]

Actual WAR is way below actual performance. D-train's predicted WAR is very close to actual performance.

Go Ms!

Maybe an indicator that WAR is severely undervaluing good relief pitchers. No higher leverage situation than protecting the most valuable thing in baseball- the lead.

The difference between a 0 WAR reliever and a 1.5 WAR reliever is a lot more than one and a half blown games in my opinion

Sewald has 1.4 WAR in 64.2 innings
Misiewicz has a .6 WAR in 54 innings
Middleton had a 0 WAR in 31 innings

For that matter, Sewalds 1.4 compared to Justus Sheffields -.3 should show a much larger difference imo. Sheffield had a 6.83 ERA in 80 innings.

Less than a 2 game swing in wins is preposterous between those two.

Absolutely. We and the 2021 M's have found a flaw in the system. No doubt about it.