Offseason Plans

[ice99]

Yes, but they had negative WAR players like Long and Marmolejos. They also had Sheffield and McCaughan making starts. I don't see Marco only having 0.6 WAR, and I see Gilbert having more innings this time around to accumulate a higher WAR. I also don't see Kelenic having negative WAR, given his Sept.

I'll revisit this when the initial Fangraphs projections come out for the FAs, FWIW.

Your 9 man lineup and your 5 man rotation are not going to play 100% of your innings. you still have to fill out the roster with guys who will get some playing time due to injury, days off etc. Every team has multiple negative WAR players even the Giants who won 106 games had them.

I expect less negative WAR from the bench and 7th starters. Fangraphs WAR doesn't capture all the results of the season.

Let's do it by delta. They won 90 games. Adding Semien over Seager is 1.5 fWAR. Adding Gausman over Anderson is 3.3 fWAR. Letting Kelenic improve to 0 WAR is 0.7 fWAR. The delta makes it 95.5 WAR.

Edit: I wish I could add.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

As much as people want to point to the Rays as the model you should follow if you want to win a World Series - I call bullshit.

The Rays are a worse 2001 Mariners. Built to win a lot of regular season games, not built to take out the 3rd best offense in the league over a mandatory 5-game series.

This is why the M's need to sign superstars. They carry you.

they went to a WS, not sure how that is worse than the 2001 Mariners

Oh, because you're into particulars, the "2021 Rays" are a worse 2001 Mariners.

And I don't count 2020 as being worth much of anything. A 60-game season with no fans in the stands, might as well have been an exhibition season.

I haven't been on this board very long, but I get the feeling you get off on being really nitpicky. You get in little post battles with a lot of people over literally nothing.

[D-train]

As much as people want to point to the Rays as the model you should follow if you want to win a World Series - I call bullshit.

The Rays are a worse 2001 Mariners. Built to win a lot of regular season games, not built to take out the 3rd best offense in the league over a mandatory 5-game series.

This is why the M's need to sign superstars. They carry you.

they went to a WS, not sure how that is worse than the 2001 Mariners

Oh, because you're into particulars, the "2021 Rays" are a worse 2001 Mariners.

And I don't count 2020 as being worth much of anything. A 60-game season with no fans in the stands, might as well have been an exhibition season.

I haven't been on this board very long, but I get the feeling you get off on being really nitpicky. You get in little post battles with a lot of people over literally nothing.

[D-train]

[Coeurd’Alene J]

they went to a WS, not sure how that is worse than the 2001 Mariners

Oh, because you're into particulars, the "2021 Rays" are a worse 2001 Mariners.

And I don't count 2020 as being worth much of anything. A 60-game season with no fans in the stands, might as well have been an exhibition season.

I haven't been on this board very long, but I get the feeling you get off on being really nitpicky. You get in little post battles with a lot of people over literally nothing.

I just blew pop all over the dashboard

[Captain 97]

Yes, but they had negative WAR players like Long and Marmolejos. They also had Sheffield and McCaughan making starts. I don't see Marco only having 0.6 WAR, and I see Gilbert having more innings this time around to accumulate a higher WAR. I also don't see Kelenic having negative WAR, given his Sept.

I'll revisit this when the initial Fangraphs projections come out for the FAs, FWIW.

Your 9 man lineup and your 5 man rotation are not going to play 100% of your innings. you still have to fill out the roster with guys who will get some playing time due to injury, days off etc. Every team has multiple negative WAR players even the Giants who won 106 games had them.

I expect less negative WAR from the bench and 7th starters. Fangraphs WAR doesn't capture all the results of the season.

Let's do it by delta. They won 90 games. Adding Semien over Seager is 1.5 fWAR. Adding Gausman over Anderson is 3.3 fWAR. Letting Kelenic improve to 0 WAR is 0.7 fWAR. The delta makes it 95.5 WAR.

Edit: I wish I could add.

They were not a 90 Win team by WAR though. They were the single most overachieving team in the history of the game. By both run differential and WAR, they should have won about 75 games. Its foolish to think that that will happen again. So take your delta from a baseline of 75 and that puts them at about .500 with those changes. Maybe they play above their pythagorean again because of the strong Bullpen but its not going to be by 15 games.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

Your 9 man lineup and your 5 man rotation are not going to play 100% of your innings. you still have to fill out the roster with guys who will get some playing time due to injury, days off etc. Every team has multiple negative WAR players even the Giants who won 106 games had them.

I expect less negative WAR from the bench and 7th starters. Fangraphs WAR doesn't capture all the results of the season.

Let's do it by delta. They won 90 games. Adding Semien over Seager is 1.5 fWAR. Adding Gausman over Anderson is 3.3 fWAR. Letting Kelenic improve to 0 WAR is 0.7 fWAR. The delta makes it 95.5 WAR.

Edit: I wish I could add.

They were not a 90 Win team by WAR though. They were the single most overachieving team in the history of the game. By both run differential and WAR, they should have won about 75 games. Its foolish to think that that will happen again. So take your delta from a baseline of 75 and that puts them at about .500 with those changes. Maybe they play above their pythagorean again because of the strong Bullpen but its not going to be by 15 games.

Yes, if you're under the impression that the young players they have won't improve or that adding quality players to the lineup won't increase the WAR of everyone around.

I don't think anyone is under the impression that the M's are a winning baseball team next year if the current players don't take big strides forward.

That's quite literally what the future trajectory of this team is predicated on. Experts think that the M's young guys will turn into stars, in which case the 2021 WAR totals don't really matter when projecting how good the M's will be.

[D-train]

Yep and JRod is now expected to be on the OD roster so hopefully both he and JK will put up positive WAR.

[bpj]

[D-train]

Nice. He's back on our list!