Offseason Plans

[ice99]

Your 9 man lineup and your 5 man rotation are not going to play 100% of your innings. you still have to fill out the roster with guys who will get some playing time due to injury, days off etc. Every team has multiple negative WAR players even the Giants who won 106 games had them.

I expect less negative WAR from the bench and 7th starters. Fangraphs WAR doesn't capture all the results of the season.

Let's do it by delta. They won 90 games. Adding Semien over Seager is 1.5 fWAR. Adding Gausman over Anderson is 3.3 fWAR. Letting Kelenic improve to 0 WAR is 0.7 fWAR. The delta makes it 95.5 WAR.

Edit: I wish I could add.

They were not a 90 Win team by WAR though. They were the single most overachieving team in the history of the game. By both run differential and WAR, they should have won about 75 games. Its foolish to think that that will happen again. So take your delta from a baseline of 75 and that puts them at about .500 with those changes. Maybe they play above their pythagorean again because of the strong Bullpen but its not going to be by 15 games.

But your initial premise was using Fangraphs WAR, and by that they should have won 73.5 games. I don't see them as a 73-74 win team. So you're saying that they need 19 WAR, or $152 million in upgrades to be a wild card team? I really doubt that. They have to count on some players improving.

What specific players in the initial baseline line with Gausman did you disagree with?

France had 3.5 WAR despite playing hurt (he stays the same). Haniger and JP contibuted for 5.9 WAR, I have them at a total of 6.0.

Moore and Torrens totaled for 0.5 WAR. I've got them at 1.0 WAR, but I'm replacing them with Semien and Schwaber anyway.

Murphy had 1.0 WAR, but he had 3.2 WAR the year earlier. I've got him at 1.5 WAR. What do you think is a good number?

Fraley had 0.5 WAR in 265 PA, which comes out to 1.1 WAR in 600 PA. I've got him at 1.5 WAR.

The main improvement for the hitters is Kelenic to 2.0 WAR next year. That doesn't seem unreasonable given his Sept.

For the pitchers I have Marco rebounding to 3 WAR. They went to a 6 man rotation to limit innings for the starters. Logan Gilbert only pitched 119 innings and had 2.2 WAR. I can see him pitching 163 innings with 3 WAR (which is the same pace). Flexen stays at 3.0 WAR.

They also have Brash, and perhaps Kirby here next summer. JRod may begin the season in the majors.

I'm going to compare it to the Fangraphs projections when they come out.

[D-train]

Did you see mine for this season. My big misses were Marco, Sheff, Marge, Lewis, JK, Moore and White.

D-train wrote: ↑Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:40 am
I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:
Actuals in red

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5 0.6
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5 1.1
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7 3.0
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7 -0.3
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5 0.5 Nailed it!
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2 0.0
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3 2.2 Nailed it!
Total: 15.4 Total: 7.1
Anderson 0.9
Actual Grand Total: 8.0


Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7 0.3
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3 0.0
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2 0.8 Nailed it if he hadn't been traded
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08 0.0
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3 1.1
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5 0.4 Almost nailed it
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7 -0.1
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1 0.6
5.0 Actual: 3.1
Sewald: 1.4
Steck: 1.3
JT Chargois: 0.5
Smith: 0.5
Santiago: 0.4
Actual Grand total: 7.2

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7 0.3
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1 2.7
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3 0.4
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5 -0.4
JK 1.7 -0.7
8.3 Actual: 2.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2 2.6
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3 3.1
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7 0.2
Evan White, 1B 1.3 -0.7
Ty France, IF 3.5 3.6 Nailed it!
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1 -0.5
12.9 Actual 8.3
Toro: 0.7
Grand total actual: 9.0

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8 1.0
Luis Torrens 1.2 0.2
3.0 Actual 1.2

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6 Actual: 27.7
Team Wins: 92.2 75.3

[ice99]

Did you see mine for this season. My big misses were Marco, Sheff, Marge, Lewis, JK, Moore and White.

D-train wrote: ↑Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:40 am
I will just use Divish's roster which seems reasonable:
Actuals in red

Marco Gonzales, LHP 4.5 0.6
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP 2.5 1.1
Chris Flexen, RHP 0.7 3.0
Justus Sheffield, LHP 3.7 -0.3
Justin Dunn, RHP 0.5 0.5 Nailed it!
Nick Margevicius, LHP 1.2 0.0
Logan Gilbert RHP 2.3 2.2 Nailed it!
Total: 15.4 Total: 7.1
Anderson 0.9
Actual Grand Total: 8.0


Rafael Montero, RHP (closer) 0.7 0.3
Keynan Middleton, RHP 0.3 0.0
Kendall Graveman, RHP 1.2 0.8 Nailed it if he hadn't been traded
Brandon Brennan, RHP .08 0.0
Casey Sadler, RHP -0.3 1.1
Erik Swanson, RHP 0.5 0.4 Almost nailed it
Yohan Ramirez, RHP 0.7 -0.1
Anthony Misiewicz, LHP 1.1 0.6
5.0 Actual: 3.1
Sewald: 1.4
Steck: 1.3
JT Chargois: 0.5
Smith: 0.5
Santiago: 0.4
Actual Grand total: 7.2

Outfielders (4)

Kyle Lewis, CF 2.7 0.3
Mitch Haniger, RF 3.1 2.7
Jake Fraley, LF 0.3 0.4
Sam Haggerty, Utility 0.5 -0.4
JK 1.7 -0.7
8.3 Actual: 2.3

Infielders (6)

Kyle Seager, 3B 3.2 2.6
J.P. Crawford, SS 2.3 3.1
Dylan Moore, 2B 2.7 0.2
Evan White, 1B 1.3 -0.7
Ty France, IF 3.5 3.6 Nailed it!
Shed Long Jr., IF -0.1 -0.5
12.9 Actual 8.3
Toro: 0.7
Grand total actual: 9.0

Catchers (2)

Tom Murphy 1.8 1.0
Luis Torrens 1.2 0.2
3.0 Actual 1.2

Replacement team Baseline: 47.6
Team WAR: 44.6 Actual: 27.7
Team Wins: 92.2 75.3

This was pretty optimistic on the OF, but all in all very close to the actual wins.

[D-train]

If Lewis doesn't get hurt and JK doesn't have one of the worst starts in history it would have looked better.

[ice99]

Exactly. I didn't expect to see Kelenic until the summer, either.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

Nice. He's back on our list!

He only made it through 2 and 2/3rds.

Something ain't right with him.

[AT Funchal-Madeira]

Take him off the list.....
What do you guys think of Schwarber and Ketel Marte?

[D-train]

Take him off the list.....
What do you guys think of Schwarber and Ketel Marte?

Love Schwarber. Perfect fit, only 29 and the left handed power you are looking for.

Never heard of Ketel Marte.

He would be great but under control for 3 more years at $8-10M so he would cost a fortune in prospects.

[Captain 97]

I expect less negative WAR from the bench and 7th starters. Fangraphs WAR doesn't capture all the results of the season.

Let's do it by delta. They won 90 games. Adding Semien over Seager is 1.5 fWAR. Adding Gausman over Anderson is 3.3 fWAR. Letting Kelenic improve to 0 WAR is 0.7 fWAR. The delta makes it 95.5 WAR.

Edit: I wish I could add.

They were not a 90 Win team by WAR though. They were the single most overachieving team in the history of the game. By both run differential and WAR, they should have won about 75 games. Its foolish to think that that will happen again. So take your delta from a baseline of 75 and that puts them at about .500 with those changes. Maybe they play above their pythagorean again because of the strong Bullpen but its not going to be by 15 games.

Yes,

if you're under the impression that the young players they have won't improve

or that adding quality players to the lineup won't increase the WAR of everyone around.

I don't think anyone is under the impression that the M's are a winning baseball team next year if the current players don't take big strides forward.

That's quite literally what the future trajectory of this team is predicated on. Experts think that the M's young guys will turn into stars, in which case the 2021 WAR totals don't really matter when projecting how good the M's will be.

Some will improve. Some will regress. Some will get hurt and be replaced by guys like Shed Long. That's the nature of Baseball.
Your projection assumes all of the guys who did well will maintain it. That almost never happens. It also assumes That all of the guys who suck will get better. That almost never happens either. It also assumes that we won't have any bench players with a negative WAR. That almost never happens either. Thinking that all three of those things will occur in the same year is a pie in the sky optimism.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

They were not a 90 Win team by WAR though. They were the single most overachieving team in the history of the game. By both run differential and WAR, they should have won about 75 games. Its foolish to think that that will happen again. So take your delta from a baseline of 75 and that puts them at about .500 with those changes. Maybe they play above their pythagorean again because of the strong Bullpen but its not going to be by 15 games.

Yes,

if you're under the impression that the young players they have won't improve

or that adding quality players to the lineup won't increase the WAR of everyone around.

I don't think anyone is under the impression that the M's are a winning baseball team next year if the current players don't take big strides forward.

That's quite literally what the future trajectory of this team is predicated on. Experts think that the M's young guys will turn into stars, in which case the 2021 WAR totals don't really matter when projecting how good the M's will be.

Some will improve. Some will regress. Some will get hurt and be replaced by guys like Shed Long. That's the nature of Baseball.
Your projection assumes all of the guys who did well will maintain it. That almost never happens. It also assumes That all of the guys who suck will get better. That almost never happens either. It also assumes that we won't have any bench players with a negative WAR. That almost never happens either. Thinking that all three of those things will occur in the same year is a pie in the sky optimism.

I'm not sure what your point is?

Either they do improve like crazy or the M's are a pretender. Are you saying that no matter what happens in free agency that next year's M's team has absolutely 0 chance?

The hope is that the team takes a big leap forward with experience. The hope is that a guy like Kelenic turns into a .900 OPS hitter and hangs 6+ WAR. The hope is a guy like Julio does the same.

I'd be willing to bet the 2014 Astros fan base didn't assume the team that won 70 games would be in the World Series in 3 short years.

I'd be willing to bet the Padres fan base didn't think Fernando Tatis Jr. would hang 13.6 WAR in his first 273 games.

Vlad Jr. had a .780 or so OPS his first 2 years then exploded for a 1.002 OPS and made his team a contender.

I'd be willing to bet the Giants fan base didn't think Buster Posey was going to magically rebound from 2x seasons of .720 OPS hitting to all of a sudden drop an .889 OPS. Or that Brandon Crawford who had around a .700 OPS from 2017-2019 was going to magically hit for a .895 OPS in 2021.

It's going to to take jumps like that - that's true for most teams. Difference is, we have guys that they actually project taking those sort of leaps.