Baseball America's Mariners Top Ten Prospects

[D-train]

I think he will get something done around pitching. Even if it's selling high on Flexen or selling whatever point he's at on Marco.

A team like the Injuns might like both of those guys as a second piece because they're proven with years of cheap control.

He can't just hoarde prospects when we have 80% of the rotation under contract for years.

Marte/Flexen/Dunn/Hancock seems like a realistic package for Ramirez imo, assuming they're still following their weird contend-but-do-it-cheap philosophy.

Only problem with putting Flexen into the deal is your 6.7 WAR addition suddenly becomes a 3.2 WAR addition after subtracting Flexen's 3.5 WAR. So you then need to sign or trade for another starter to get that 3.5 WAR back.

Besides, I think Marte/Dunn/Hancock gets it done as does Tradevalues.com

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I'm not so sure Marte/Dunn/Hancock gets it done personally. (Maybe not but I think it can be done without giving up one of the few significant contributors on you mlb roster)

I look at it more like we can get a replacement for Flexen a lot easier than we can get a JRam. (Definitely but possible that you don't and your rotation is much weaker)

From Clevelands perspective of "always contending, never spending", a Flexen with some success under his belt may be more attractive than either Dunn or Hancock. (Flex definitely more attractive but they won't be trying to contend if they trade Beiber/JRam imo)

I mean, if I could choose 2 players to keep out of Marte/Flexen/Dunn/Hancock, I probably pick Marte/Flexen. Dunn and Hancock are more filler at this point to hope it gets done.

It would be selling high on Flexen. (While I agree that he doesn't have much upside if any from 2021, I don't think he would be selling high. He is only 27 and I think he is good for 3-4 WAR through his prime. Perfect #3 starter on a playoff team imo. Not to mention, I like the guy. )

There are 10 options out there to replace Flexen for a team that doesn't need to pinch their pennies (us), where a low cost guy like him may be particularly appealing to the penny pinching teams like Cleveland. (If this is true and we have control of him until 2027, there are almost no available options like him out there)

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Domino effect is acquiring Ramirez instead of a Kris Bryant saves the Mariners at least $100M. Could spend half that and have JRam + a #2 starter with 50mil left in the bank over what we'd be spending on Bryant+Flexen. (Sure but would need a now 3B and a new Starter in two years.)

[Pharmabro]

I think he will get something done around pitching. Even if it's selling high on Flexen or selling whatever point he's at on Marco.

A team like the Injuns might like both of those guys as a second piece because they're proven with years of cheap control.

He can't just hoarde prospects when we have 80% of the rotation under contract for years.

Marte/Flexen/Dunn/Hancock seems like a realistic package for Ramirez imo, assuming they're still following their weird contend-but-do-it-cheap philosophy.

Before I even looked I am guessing that is an overpay.
Hancock 12.5
Flexen 21.9
Dunn 4.9
Marte 63.2
total 102.5M

J Ram 73.7M

Just an overpay of 30 million or so.

[Pharmabro]

I think he will get something done around pitching. Even if it's selling high on Flexen or selling whatever point he's at on Marco.

A team like the Injuns might like both of those guys as a second piece because they're proven with years of cheap control.

He can't just hoarde prospects when we have 80% of the rotation under contract for years.

Marte/Flexen/Dunn/Hancock seems like a realistic package for Ramirez imo, assuming they're still following their weird contend-but-do-it-cheap philosophy.

Only problem with putting Flexen into the deal is your 6.7 WAR addition suddenly becomes a 3.2 WAR addition after subtracting Flexen's 3.5 WAR. So you then need to sign or trade for another starter to get that 3.5 WAR back.

Besides, I think Marte/Dunn/Hancock gets it done as does Tradevalues.com

tv.JPG

I'm not so sure Marte/Dunn/Hancock gets it done personally.

I look at it more like we can get a replacement for Flexen a lot easier than we can get a JRam.

From Clevelands perspective of "always contending, never spending", a Flexen with some success under his belt may be more attractive than either Dunn or Hancock.

I mean, if I could choose 2 players to keep out of Marte/Flexen/Dunn/Hancock, I probably pick Marte/Flexen. Dunn and Hancock are more filler at this point to hope it gets done.

It would be selling high on Flexen.

There are 10 options out there to replace Flexen for a team that doesn't need to pinch their pennies (us), where a low cost guy like him may be particularly appealing to the penny pinching teams like Cleveland.

Domino effect is acquiring Ramirez instead of a Kris Bryant saves the Mariners at least $100M. Could spend half that and have JRam + a #2 starter with 50mil left in the bank over what we'd be spending on Bryant+Flexen.

Wrong pal most of the good starters are gone and trying to bet you can pull Rodon and ignore his health issues and he is going to get paid probably in the 20s on a 1 year? Clayton Kershaw will probably command 20M or so which is steep $ for a guy that barely tops 90 anymore. Grienke? Like I said most of the top arms are gone.
I would much rather trade for Olson and with Bassit or Montas
Sign Brad Hand or CHaffin
Sign one of Conforto, Suzuki, Bryant

Bassit = 17M, 39.6, for Montas
Olson =45.3
Bassit and Olson = 62.3

Marte = 63.2M

[bpj]

"Most of the top arms are gone"

then you name Rodon and 2 of the 3 A's pitchers, all more than capable replacements for Flexen who could be a one hit wonder for all anyone knows.

There are 10 guys that could replace Flexen in the rotation, especially if he's not the same guy in 2022.

The same can't be said for getting our hands on Jose Ramirez at 3B.

Who cares that we'd have another vacancy in two years. That's what the free agent market in two years is for.

[D-train]

Flexen probably doesn't have as much value away from T Mobile. His splits are pretty striking. I guess the Redskins might be interested but can't imagine their fanbase being too excited about such a low ceiling guy. We shall see.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... r=2021&t=p

[AT Funchal-Madeira]

Love this rosterbation: you go over and over all the free agents, our prospects, and you still keep coming back to these three guys..... Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, and Bryan Reynolds..... In my mind the three most affordable and covetable possible additions for the Mariner lineup.... I'd love to have one, two, or all three of them in our lineup for the next 5-6 years. Oh, we still need a catcher

[GL_Storm]

Baseball America has an article rating pitching prospects by pitch type. The author is Geoff Pontes, who they brought over recently from Prospects Live, which he was the founder of. So far, he's been writing a number of articles like this, where he breaks down pitches using the newest terminology and analytics.

For the Fastball section:

1. Brandon Williamson, LHP Mariners
Average Velocity: 93 mph
Whiff Rate: 37%
Strike Rate: 69%

The second-best bat-missing fastball on this list, Williamson has the only fastball that is in the neighborhood of D.L. Hall’s in regards to both whiffs and strikes. This is in large part due to his induced vertical break. The lefthander has the highest on this list and is one of two pitchers with an average that exceeds 20 inches of IVB inside the top 100. Williamson’s elite pitch shape allows the pitch to play above its average velocity and generate whiffs at the second-highest rate of any Top 100 pitcher.

4. George Kirby, RHP Mariners
Average Velocity: 97 mph
Whiff Rate: 29%
Strike Rate: 75%

Much like the aforementioned Detmers, Kirby has added substantial velocity as a professional, and his fastball ranks as the third-hardest on this list behind just Hunter Greene and Nate Pearson. Unlike those two pitchers, Kirby gets his in the zone at an elite rate while generating the highest whiff rate of those three fastballs. His 75% strike rate is also the highest on the list by a 4% difference. A combination of velocity and command make Kirby’s fastball among the best on this list.

For the Curveball section:

1. Matt Brash, RHP Mariners
Average Velocity: 83 mph
Whiff Rate: 40%
Strike Rate: 63%

Brash and the Mariners call his primary breaking ball a slider, a common term for sweeping breaking balls. Measurement devices, however, typically classify these sliders as curveballs. For this reason we’ll classify it as a curveball here, even if it is, in fact, a slider. Brash's breaker has plenty of fanfare and deservedly so. It’s a heavy low-to-mid-80s sweeper that misses bats in bunches. In fact, the pitch has more sweep than any pitch, curveball or slider, on this list, with an average of more than 16 inches of horizontal break. Additionally, it’s one of four curveballs thrown by pitchers inside our Top 100 with a whiff rate of 40% or higher and a strike rate of 60% or higher. It’s Brash’s ability to command his hellacious sweep that might be most impressive, as he boasts the second-highest strike rate of a curveball thrown by a Top 100 pitcher. That’s even more remarkable when you consider Brash’s curveball is his most used pitch—accounting for 46% of his total pitch usage in 2021.

[D-train]

Baseball America has an article rating pitching prospects by pitch type. The author is Geoff Pontes, who they brought over recently from Prospects Live, which he was the founder of. So far, he's been writing a number of articles like this, where he breaks down pitches using the newest terminology and analytics.

For the Fastball section:

1. Brandon Williamson, LHP Mariners
Average Velocity: 93 mph
Whiff Rate: 37%
Strike Rate: 69%

The second-best bat-missing fastball on this list, Williamson has the only fastball that is in the neighborhood of D.L. Hall’s in regards to both whiffs and strikes. This is in large part due to his induced vertical break. The lefthander has the highest on this list and is one of two pitchers with an average that exceeds 20 inches of IVB inside the top 100. Williamson’s elite pitch shape allows the pitch to play above its average velocity and generate whiffs at the second-highest rate of any Top 100 pitcher.

4. George Kirby, RHP Mariners
Average Velocity: 97 mph
Whiff Rate: 29%
Strike Rate: 75%

Much like the aforementioned Detmers, Kirby has added substantial velocity as a professional, and his fastball ranks as the third-hardest on this list behind just Hunter Greene and Nate Pearson. Unlike those two pitchers, Kirby gets his in the zone at an elite rate while generating the highest whiff rate of those three fastballs. His 75% strike rate is also the highest on the list by a 4% difference. A combination of velocity and command make Kirby’s fastball among the best on this list.

For the Curveball section:

1. Matt Brash, RHP Mariners
Average Velocity: 83 mph
Whiff Rate: 40%
Strike Rate: 63%

Brash and the Mariners call his primary breaking ball a slider, a common term for sweeping breaking balls. Measurement devices, however, typically classify these sliders as curveballs. For this reason we’ll classify it as a curveball here, even if it is, in fact, a slider. Brash's breaker has plenty of fanfare and deservedly so. It’s a heavy low-to-mid-80s sweeper that misses bats in bunches. In fact, the pitch has more sweep than any pitch, curveball or slider, on this list, with an average of more than 16 inches of horizontal break. Additionally, it’s one of four curveballs thrown by pitchers inside our Top 100 with a whiff rate of 40% or higher and a strike rate of 60% or higher. It’s Brash’s ability to command his hellacious sweep that might be most impressive, as he boasts the second-highest strike rate of a curveball thrown by a Top 100 pitcher. That’s even more remarkable when you consider Brash’s curveball is his most used pitch—accounting for 46% of his total pitch usage in 2021.

Jesus, that's awesome. Thanks for posting.

[AT Funchal-Madeira]

Cleveland has a history of developing pitching prospects in TOR pitchers with Cy Young possibilities. I should think any trade for J.Ram would include at least two pitching prospects. Hancock could be one of them for sure. Right now they have 3 righthanders and one lefthander among their top ten prospects. They have two in AA and one in AAA that are close... Seems like they'd still be open.... wonder if they'd be more interested in Toro than Marte? I don't know what it would take to pry Ramirez away from them...

4. RHP Daniel Espino | 21 | A+ | 2023

Espino is the kind of guy you get questions about in the prospect writing game. The 24th overall pick in the 2019 draft, Espino was a celebrity in prospect circles before he graduated high school, with some projecting him as a top 5 pick. I liked him a lot heading into draft season and was surprised he fell to Cleveland deep in the round. He has repaid the club’s confidence, striking out his opponents at incredible rates since day one, never whiffing fewer than 30% and peaking at 45.1% across 49 innings at High-A this season, where he logged a 0.94 WHIP despite some gopher balls that ballooned his ERA to 4.04. He even cut the walk rate from 12.8% at Low-A to 8.2% at High-A. He’ll open 2022 in AA and figures to post similarly ridiculous rates thanks to a double-plus fastball that sits comfortably around 98 and a death-touch slider that means he could be pretty effective very early in his career a la Alek Manoah. And that’s not all he’s got. He’s a plus athlete at 6’2” 205 lbs and flashes solid curveballs and changeups if he ever needs to get that deep into his arsenal.



5. RHP Peyton Battenfield | 24 | AA | 2023

Acquired at the deadline from Tampa for OF Jordan Luplow and RHP DJ Johnson, Battenfield should flourish in Cleveland. At 6’4” 224 lbs, he brings an electric momentum to the mound via constant movement and consistent strikes from a brisk delivery. His heater eats up in the zone and tunnels well with his changeup and curveball, which he didn’t have to throw all that much in 103 innings that netted him a 0.825 WHIP across two levels. Tampa typically gets what it wants from its trades, but I’m a little stunned they bailed on Battenfield to add what they did. You want to sell Joe Ryan to add Nelson Cruz to the lineup? Sure, makes sense. Could’ve just signed him in the off-season but whatever. You want to trade a fire-breathing fastballer like this guy for Jordan Luplow? I mean, you’re the Rays so you do you and continue to be smarter than me and almost everyone else, but this is a weird one.




freestar
6. RHP Cody Morris | 25 | AAA | 2022

Like his dad Zach, Morris always looks cool and composed in the center of the frame, even holding a cordless phone twice the size of his head. He was a 7th round pick out of South Carolina in 2018 and follows a long line of big conference college arms through the Cleveland pipeline in that his pitches tunnel well, he has command of his off-speed arsenal and he’s added some velocity as a young Guardian. He dominated both upper levels last year, registering a 1.00 WHIP and 93 strikeouts in 61 innings. He was pitching around 96 mph with an 81 mph curveball in most of the outings I watched this season, so he’s not some finesse guy: we’re looking at a legitimate angle on some Cleveland pitching magic-slash-technology.

9. LHP Logan Allen | 23 | AA | 2022

A great athlete with plus balance and command who repeats his delivery with ease, Allen fits the Cleveland mold for pitchers who exceed their on-paper projections. He’s not an ideal candidate to add velocity at 6’0” 190 lbs, but Cleveland tends to find a way, not that Allen has needed more than his low-90’s fastball, plus changeup and average curveball to this point. He went 9-0 in 19 starts across two levels this season with a 0.93 WHIP and 143 strikeouts in 111.1 innings. He’ll open the season in AAA and could be in Cleveland by July.

[GL_Storm]

Jonatan Clase isn't on any of the M's Top 10 lists, but he's definitely Top 30 and probably Top 20 for some outlets. He's supposed to be the fastest player in the organization and one of the best overall athletes. His progress was stalled last year by some sort of injury, so that's probably helped to keep him under the radar.

But, the reason to take note of him is that apparently he's hit a growth spurt and is up around 6 foot now. If memory serves, I got that from the LL podcast. They're a bit biased towards him as he's one of their favorites, but they're also the ones that would know that sort of thing about him. Fangraphs had him listed at 5'8" a year ago but that was probably out of date at the time.

Anyway, if the growth spurt is true, then that changes the projection on him. It makes him one to watch for a breakout season.