Seager

[Dr Naysay]

Just looking at Seager again the thing this season that directly correlates(imo) to his best season in 2016 is BB% and ISO and the ISO is a product of the walks he's taking. Interestingly he already has more walks this season than last season and hasn't been intentionally walked once.(he had 10 intentional walks in 2016) His strikezone heatmaps from Fangraphs.
2018


2019

[bpj]

Total MLB Homeruns
2000: 5,693
2001: 5,458
2002: 5,059
2003: 5,207
2004: 5,451
2005: 5,017
2006: 5,386
2007: 4,957
2008: 4,878
2009: 5,042
2010: 4,613
2011: 4,552
2012: 4,934
2013: 4,661
2014: 4,186
2015: 4,909
2016: 5,610
2017: 6,105
2018: 5,585
2019: 6,173 currently

With all the talk of "Moneyball", teams have simply become much more power-centric than ever. Whether it's the ball or not, chasing speed, defense and stolen bases in todays game is foolish. You can't defend against a homerun, so you'd better be able to hit some of your own.

Those numbers don't say it's the ball to me. More and more teams are adding power at every possible position because it's what works. We have the best talent from around the world reaching MLB these days more tham ever. This is the result imo.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

When it jumps by 1500 from one year to the next, it's mainly the ball. All you really need to do is look at individual players' velocity off the bat and fly ball percentages. I'm guessing the former went up this year while the latter didn't so much. And then there is the forensic evidence...

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Also, how would you explain the huge increase in AAA home runs this year where they use the ML balls made in Central America while the HR rates in AA and below, where they use balls made in China, actually went down, i believe.

[bpj]

When it jumps by 1500 from one year to the next, it's mainly the ball. All you really need to do is look at individual players' velocity off the bat and fly ball percentages. I'm guessing the former went up this year while the latter didn't so much. And then there is the forensic evidence...

Is it projected to finish at 7,000? It looks like it bounces several hundred either way each year.

What it looks more like to me is it's been steadily rising since 2014.

2018 appears to be the off year to me.

Maybe last year they used a mush ball which explains why it looked like Seager was hitting a nerf ball sometimes last season. Just died off the bat.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

To be sure, i think batters probably have changed their approach to hitting so as to get under the ball more, but i think that may be more of a reaction to how the balls have changed than to some revelation about the value of trying to hit home runs rather than line drives or whatever.

Is there any data out there so we could compare fly ball rates for individual hitters across this time span (2014-2019)? Also, can it be shown that players just entering the league during that time span are, on average, more oriented towards being sluggers than their older counterparts? Would be interesting to find out.

[Wishhiker]

Total MLB Homeruns
2000: 5,693
2001: 5,458
2002: 5,059
2003: 5,207
2004: 5,451
2005: 5,017
2006: 5,386
2007: 4,957
2008: 4,878
2009: 5,042
2010: 4,613
2011: 4,552
2012: 4,934
2013: 4,661
2014: 4,186
2015: 4,909
2016: 5,610
2017: 6,105
2018: 5,585
2019: 6,173 currently

With all the talk of "Moneyball", teams have simply become much more power-centric than ever. Whether it's the ball or not, chasing speed, defense and stolen bases in todays game is foolish. You can't defend against a homerun, so you'd better be able to hit some of your own.

Those numbers don't say it's the ball to me. More and more teams are adding power at every possible position because it's what works. We have the best talent from around the world reaching MLB these days more tham ever. This is the result imo.

I think this misses what the problem with the Mariners was this year. Hittable pitching and bad defense in combination with not just HR but hard hit balls rising. Yes, Kikuchi and Leake's HR issues were real (both top 5 still in MLB HR given up) but both are better with better defense behind them. You simply can't ignore defense.

Speed is a good tool if it's not the only tool a player has. I think you're thinking of Zduriencik rosters where players had 2 tools, speed and defense. Any 2 tool set is not good to fill a roster with if they're mostly lacking in the others. The problem isn't the tools that they have but rather the ones they don't.

Rosters loaded with speed and defense but mostly a lack of other skills have very, very few examples or histories of winning. Teams loaded with both but also having others skills have many championships among them.

[bpj]

Nobody wants to ignore defense. It's just at the bottom of my list of priorities instead of the top. Pretty much exactly the same thing you said.

A Vogelbach won't survive anywhere but DH or 1B. That much we can easily agree on.

On the other hand a Nola would be just fine at 3B/2B/C with close to an .800 OPS bat and average-ish defense, but is likely not a fit at 1B/DH because his OPS is likely to top out somewhere under .800 which doesnt fit the 1B profile without the gold glove defense.

[Wishhiker]

Nobody wants to ignore defense. It's just at the bottom of my list of priorities instead of the top. Pretty much exactly the same thing you said.

A Vogelbach won't survive anywhere but DH or 1B. That much we can easily agree on.

On the other hand a Nola would be just fine at 3B/2B/C with close to an .800 OPS bat and average-ish defense, but is likely not a fit at 1B/DH because his OPS is likely to top out somewhere under .800 which doesnt fit the 1B profile without the gold glove defense.

Looking at the prospects and team what we're looking at having a real good chance of around 21-22 is a team full of guys with speed and defense but also plenty of hit, power, arm and eye throughout. People will focus on the hit and power and give less credit to the other skills as per usual. Having a complete lack of speed kills teams. We've experienced base clogging at its ugliest before.
Having a lack of any skill does.

Whether I prefer defense or what kind of offense depends on their fielding position(s) and the roster around them. I want plus defense at 3 of 4 infield spots, C and CF. You just can't ignore the offense at more than 1 position in your starting 9.

[bpj]

Nobody wants to ignore defense.

But if they dont have a league average bat minimum, I don't care how good their defense is, they're not a starter. Those are black holes, especially when you have to pay up for them.

To start for a contender they have to be league average on defense and offense and plus in one or the other. Just speed will never work.

Too bad of a bat is a negative no matter how good the glove, Brendan Ryan.