Without a doubt, the Astros tanked exactly how you're supposed to. From 2011-2014 the Astros put up a .358 winning %... winning 232 games and losing 416. They've gotten away with paying their cornerstone players absolutely nothing but that all stops in 2020 and 2021 will be the year(s) of reckoning when Correa/Springer demand huge sums for their services.
This allowed them to draft 3 cornerstone players super early:
George Springer (11th overall in 2011)
Carlos Correa (1st overall 2012)
Alex Bregman (2nd overall 2015)
Jose Altuve made his debut as a f/a signing in 2011
The Astros paid these guys this much during their recentplayoff runs:
Springer: $4.233 million on average per season
Correa: $595.4 thousand on average per season
Bregman: $571.6 thousand on average per season
Altuve: $4.125 million on average person season
What kind of stats have these guys put up making basically 0 cash?
Springer: .823 OPS and a 162 game average of around 170 hits, 33 HR's, 90 RBI's
Correa: .834 OPS and a 162 game average of around 171 hits, 29 HR's, 107 RBI's
Bregman: .848 OPS and 162 game average of around 170 hits, 29 HR's, 97 RBI's
Altuve: Career .814 OPS and a 162 game average of around 203 hits, 15 HR's, 68 RBI's (far higher averages over their playoff years)
$38 million dollars during their playoff runs bought them 1 ROY's, 1 MVP, 8 All Star Nods.
Paying these guys this money allowed them to sign/trade for or pay:
2017:
Justin Verlander $26 million-$33 million per season through 2021
Carlos Beltran at $16 million (left after 2017)
Josh Reddick at $13 million per season through 2020
Brian McCann at $17 million (left after 2018)
Charlie Morton at $8.75 million (left after 2018)
Paid Yuli Gurriel $14 million
Paid Dallas Keuchel $9.15 million
2018:
Garett Cole at $6.75 million
Paid Dallas Keuchel $13.2 million (left after 2018)
Paid Yuli Gurriel $12.4 million
Paid George Springer $12 million
Paid Collin McHugh $3.85 million
Paid Marwin Gonzales $5.125 million (left after 2018)
2019:
Garrett Cole at $13.5 million (UFA in 2020)
Michael Brantley at $16 million per season through 2020
Paid Yuli Gurriel $10.4 million (UFA in 2021)
Paid Collin McHugh $3.85 million (UFA in 2020)
Paid Lance McCullers $4.1 million (going to make close to $7 million in 2020)
So what happens in 2020?
We've already seen the Astros shed the contracts of Marwin Gonzales and Dallas Keuchel who were integral to their WS runs. Altuve and Bregman will make huge jumps in pay. Now here's the big question: How do they pay Carlos Correa, George Springer and Garrett Cole?
They are on the hook for around $132.75 million in just 9 players w.o paying Correa and Springer their due in Arb money.
Justin Verlander at $28 million
Jose Altuve at $29 million
Alex Bregman $12.6 million
Josh Reddick $13 million
Michael Brantley $16 million
Ryan Pressley $8.75 million
Yuli Gurriel $8.4 million
Roberto Osuna is due around $10 million in arb (maybe a little more or less)
Brad Peacock is due around $7 million in arb (maybe a little more or less)
Correa and Springer are going to make a killing in arbitration:
Carlos Correa is on pace for 183 hits, 38 HR's, 102 RBI's and a .926 OPS
George Springer is on pace for 204 hits, 57 HR's, 146 RBI's and a 1.052 OPS
Mookie Betts signed an Arb deal for $20 million for the Red Sox with a 180 hit, 32 HR, 80 RBI, 1.078 OPS season... so if these guys continue at this pace they'll earn that money easy next year meaning that the Astros will be on the hook for around$172 million in just 11 players (maybe a little less or more).
So what will happen? They won't be able to sign multiple, key arms in their pitching staff (which is huge)
Garrett Cole is 100% gone... no way they can afford him... he'll be making somewhere around $25 million a season.
Collin McHugh is likely gone. A quality 4 or 5 arm in the rotation.
Will Harris is 100% gone... one of the better relievers in baseball and UFA in 2020 due for a big pay day.
Hector Rondon is 100% gone... also one of the better relievers in baseball and UFA in 2020 due for a big pay day.
+ Robinson Chirinos is likely gone... he's one of the better offensive catchers in baseball... due for a big pay day.
The Astros are on the hook for Altuve at a clip of $29 million until 2024. In 2023 they pay Alex Bregman $28.5 million a year for 2 seasons. My guess is this will handcuff them when it comes to signing long term deals w/ Correa and Springer. My guess is Springer walks in 2021 and Correa walks in 2022. They aren't going to pay 3 or 4 players $28 million + a year during 2023 and 2024... that's suicide.
My guess is 2022 will be the end of the Astros run. Just in time to see the M's take advantage of the tanking window they are currently taking part in.
Tanking and the Astros Payroll
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AT Funchal-Madeira
- Posts: 4436
- Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:02 pm
Re: Tanking and the Astros Payroll
Wouldn't that be nice.... but the M's have a tough time identifying talent, are horrible at developing talent, and even worse at keeping talent...
Re: Tanking and the Astros Payroll
Strike 1. Strike 2. Strike 3. That's the most right on and succinct statement re: the M's I've ever heard, Terry.
Rocky Colavito is a Hall of Famer in my book!
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IStillLoveTheMs
- Posts: 5244
- Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 11:29 pm
Re: Tanking and the Astros Payroll
Here's to hoping it changes Terry *clink*
By 2021/2022 we'll have shed almost all our payroll and players like Lewis, Kellenic, Dunn, Gilbert, Sheffield, JRod will hopefully be ready lead a similar run. Our misery can't last forever.
Guys like Marco and Haniger will be at similar places contract wise to Keuchel and Marwin...
And we'll have a ton of money to splurge on a TOR arm, key vets and bullpen arms like the Astros have done during their run.