Trade!

GL_Storm
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Re: Trade!

Post by GL_Storm » Tue Jul 04, 2023 11:02 pm

Seems like Mike Ford could go at the deadline if some team needs a hitter and is willing to give up their #21 prospect. Then he'll probably be with the M's again in spring training.

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D-train
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Re: Trade!

Post by D-train » Tue Jul 04, 2023 11:04 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Tue Jul 04, 2023 10:07 pm
So they saved roughly half of Flexen's 2023 salary ($4 mil) and half of Trevor Gott's as well ($600K). In exchange, both roster spots can be filled by minimum salary pitchers for the rest of the year or roughly $720K. So the combined savings for the year is $3.8-3.9 million. I expect we'll see Teoscar traded at the first opportunity. No doubt they're looking at falling revenues from declining ticket sales and people canceling their Fubo subscriptions, so there will be pressure on Jerry to cut costs where he can. But beyond Teoscar, it's hard to see who can be moved. Maybe someone could use Suarez, but they're unlikely to want to pick up next year's salary. Wong and Pollock are sunk costs at this point.

I think it's possible Sewald and France could be moved. Both are on very affordable salaries this year, but are arb eligible next year, so you never know. This will be an interesting test to see how much power Jerry has to keep his team together in the face of the team wanting to lower costs.
Trading France would signal of full rebuild. Fans would finally revolt and burn down T Mobile.
dt

GL_Storm
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Re: Trade!

Post by GL_Storm » Tue Jul 04, 2023 11:26 pm

D-train wrote:
Tue Jul 04, 2023 11:04 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Tue Jul 04, 2023 10:07 pm
So they saved roughly half of Flexen's 2023 salary ($4 mil) and half of Trevor Gott's as well ($600K). In exchange, both roster spots can be filled by minimum salary pitchers for the rest of the year or roughly $720K. So the combined savings for the year is $3.8-3.9 million. I expect we'll see Teoscar traded at the first opportunity. No doubt they're looking at falling revenues from declining ticket sales and people canceling their Fubo subscriptions, so there will be pressure on Jerry to cut costs where he can. But beyond Teoscar, it's hard to see who can be moved. Maybe someone could use Suarez, but they're unlikely to want to pick up next year's salary. Wong and Pollock are sunk costs at this point.

I think it's possible Sewald and France could be moved. Both are on very affordable salaries this year, but are arb eligible next year, so you never know. This will be an interesting test to see how much power Jerry has to keep his team together in the face of the team wanting to lower costs.
Trading France would signal of full rebuild. Fans would finally revolt and burn down T Mobile.
I think most fans would just shrug and roll their eyes a bit. But an offseason trade is more likely than a mid-season deal, given that he does have some real value. I could see both Sewald and France go in the offseason.

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D-train
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Re: Trade!

Post by D-train » Tue Jul 04, 2023 11:51 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Tue Jul 04, 2023 11:26 pm
D-train wrote:
Tue Jul 04, 2023 11:04 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Tue Jul 04, 2023 10:07 pm
So they saved roughly half of Flexen's 2023 salary ($4 mil) and half of Trevor Gott's as well ($600K). In exchange, both roster spots can be filled by minimum salary pitchers for the rest of the year or roughly $720K. So the combined savings for the year is $3.8-3.9 million. I expect we'll see Teoscar traded at the first opportunity. No doubt they're looking at falling revenues from declining ticket sales and people canceling their Fubo subscriptions, so there will be pressure on Jerry to cut costs where he can. But beyond Teoscar, it's hard to see who can be moved. Maybe someone could use Suarez, but they're unlikely to want to pick up next year's salary. Wong and Pollock are sunk costs at this point.

I think it's possible Sewald and France could be moved. Both are on very affordable salaries this year, but are arb eligible next year, so you never know. This will be an interesting test to see how much power Jerry has to keep his team together in the face of the team wanting to lower costs.
Trading France would signal of full rebuild. Fans would finally revolt and burn down T Mobile.
I think most fans would just shrug and roll their eyes a bit. But an offseason trade is more likely than a mid-season deal, given that he does have some real value. I could see both Sewald and France go in the offseason.
Then who is our 1st baseman? It would just be opening up another hole.
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Trade!

Post by Donn Beach » Wed Jul 05, 2023 12:18 am

And that would reduce ticket sales even more

Big_Maple
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Re: Trade!

Post by Big_Maple » Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:00 pm

OK - here's a summer blockbuster trade that will never happen. On paper, the trade makes sense for both sides by giving them what they both need, but it is also costly in the sense that it immediately weakens both teams in their respective areas of strength.

Here's the proposal followed by the rationale:
Screenshot 2023-07-06 at 8.43.10 AM.png
There have been a lot of rumors swirling around about the Cardinals being big sellers at the deadline, and they have been linked to the M's a lot lately. I think Trader Jerry has something in the works with them, but who knows. If they are talking, Kirby appears to be off the table, but everyone else could be fair game. For the Cards, it is likely that second baseman Nolan Gorman and outfielder Jordan Walker will be the cornerstones of their franchise moving forward, so they would be off the table.

The Cards have tons of young offensive talent, but they need pitching. Badly. We have tons of pitching, but we need help offensively. Obviously 2B and DH are our biggest areas of need. Losing Gilbert hurts - a lot. But with Woo and Miller up and coming, we still have lots of talent to spare.

My proposal is a doozy - a lot of talent switching uniforms. But the M's get immediate - and controllable - upgrades at 2B and 1B/DH. The Cards get an immediate TOR starter - KWong is a throw in, and we may have to eat his salary to make it happen. The Cards shed a ton of salary by trading Goldie, but they are losing a key part of their lineup. Obviously this impacts our own starting rotation, so this trade hurts. A lot. But consider the upside:

Brendan Donovan: 26 years old, in year 1 of pre-arb and controllable until 2026. A versatile infielder who can immediately take over 2B, and he's a Gold Glove winner, so he's a defensive stud. Donovan bats left which we could use in our lineup. There are NO 2B of any value in next year's FA class - the ONLY way we get one is through trade, and this guy is a stud. 1.7 WAR this season, .288/.378/.419

Paul Goldschmidt: We get him for the rest of this season and all of next season after which he becomes a free agent. He'll be expensive ($26MM/season), but the M's can afford it. And he is an absolute beast this season: 2.7 WAR, 15 HRs, and .284/.370/.482

We can rotate Goldie and France at DH and 1B duties which makes a huge upgrade at DH.

We get a ton of talent, but give up a ton of talent. The questions are whether the Cards would go for it, and whether we could be a better team with these offensive additions AND minus Gilbert in the rotation. It may be that it helps us this year, but makes us scary good next year if we can get a FA replacement for Gilbert in free agency.

So there you go - feel free to shred it up.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: Trade!

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Jul 06, 2023 4:29 pm

Only way I'm trading Gilbert is for a significant bat with control in return. Donovan is basically a poor-man's Ian Happ with the bat... doesn't move the needle enough. Goldschmidt is fine, but I'm not off loading a top-tier starting pitcher when half the return haul is for 1.4 seasons of a 36-year-old 1B.

I still say the M's look to add some veteran contracts on teams that are selling so they can offload younger prospects. Give me Arenado... take on the cash.

M's really shouldn't be looking to trade any of their established core. Gotta be the younger guys.

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D-train
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Re: Trade!

Post by D-train » Thu Jul 06, 2023 5:02 pm

They aren't going to trade any starting pitching. That is Jerry's brand. He is more likely to fire his lap dog first.
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Trade!

Post by Donn Beach » Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:03 pm

He traded taijaun Walker

Big_Maple
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Re: Trade!

Post by Big_Maple » Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:18 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:03 pm
He traded taijaun Walker
James Paxton.

Swanson and Macko.

Kendall Graveman.

Justin Dunn.

Carson Smith.

Steve Cishek.

Juan Then.

Mike Montgomery.

Edwin Diaz.

Levi Stoudt.

Chris Flexen.

Jerry has a track record of trading all sorts of pitchers at all points of his rebuild. I see no reason why he would not move a big piece to acquire some offensive pop right now.

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