Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[Seattle or Bust]

BY SHANNON DRAYER
Mariners Insider, Seattle Sports
Bring up the word “offseason” to a Seattle Mariners fan, and the most likely first thought is “offense” – as in much is needed.

Seattle Mariners Notebook: Catcher trade; no offer to Teoscar

Who wouldn’t want to see the lineup that ended the 2023 season – almost spot-on league average – vastly improved? The reality of the situation this winter, though, is the free-agent market for bats is thin. And as much as everyone loves to talk trade scenarios, there are very few teams that are looking to let go of impact bats. Mariners fans may very well deserve to see a Shohei Ohtani signed or a Juan Soto traded for, but the odds of landing either are low. Real talk.

So where do the Mariners turn?

There are a number of free-agent bats that could help. This week at MLB’s annual GM meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto pointed to right-handed hitters being of particular interest – perhaps even for a near full-time DH, which was refreshing to hear considering the Mariners’ .193/.292/.367 line from the position the past two seasons.

In order to significantly improve the offense, more than one bat will be needed. And even so, it is near impossible to envision the Mariners coming anywhere close to building an offense as potent as what the World Series champion Texas Rangers will roll out on opening day 2024. With that in mind, perhaps it would be productive to take a closer look at the pitching.

In light of what is or is not available in terms of bats, plus a more robust pitching market, could the Mariners doubling or even tripling down on their pitching be the way to go this winter?

Pitching was the strength of the 2023 team, yet in September it failed every bit as much as the offense. The staff as a whole in September posted the American League’s second-worst fWAR (1.0) and 12th-ranked FIP (4.77), with Seattle’s starting pitchers 13th in fWAR with a 4.69 FIP, and the bullpen coming in 14th in fWAR (minus-0.2) and 4.90 FIP.

The arms that had kept the Mariners in the chase all season could only do so much. It is here that one can find opportunity.



For most of ’23, the Mariners’ pitching was their shining star. Out of the gates, it appeared they had certainly enviable (if not tremendous) depth as they started the season with six proven MLB starters on the roster and four highly-regarded prospects close to being available.

By the time Bryan Woo made his debut on June 3, that depth was gone.

Two months later, relief was needed in a period where Seattle had planned to go to a six-man rotation. The sixth man, rookie Emerson Hancock, exited his third big league start early with a season-ending injury.

The bullpen didn’t fare much better with injuries to Penn Murfee, who filled a key swing role, and rookie Ty Adcock, who showed quick promise, leaving them short in the middle. The back of the bullpen took a huge hit as well with the trade of Paul Sewald, and Prelander Berroa apparently not ready.

As good as the pitching staff was, it’s not hard to see where help can be added. What does that look like?

Out of the box a bit, and a direction they did not want to go at the beginning of last season, is the possibility of a six-man rotation. Adding another quality starter would give the Mariners an opportunity to start one of Bryce Miller or (more likely) Woo in the minors, where their workload and development can be better managed. The six-man rotation would give them built-in depth they wouldn’t otherwise have, as you can’t just stash quality experienced arms at Triple-A. Those guys get big league jobs.

As for the argument of why you wouldn’t want to see your top arms every five days, the Mariners eventually would get to a five-man rotation, but taking a little off the workload early could pay dividends late in the season. One can’t help but wonder if that was the difference we saw from Luis Castillo in September 23 versus ’22, when he didn’t start his season until May 9.

Luis Castillo’s late-season numbers

• September 2023: 32.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 18 walks, 38 strikeouts
• September/October 2022 (including playoffs): 47.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 9 walks, 47 strikeouts

In regards to the ‘pen, the track record of the Mariners turning around relievers is tremendous, but if ever there was a time to spend a bit on an established arm, it would appear to be now. The discoveries and contributions of Justin Topa and Gabe Speier last season were great, but they best fit in the sixth and seventh innings. The better Mariners bullpens of late have had three high-leverage arms, and one of those (Sewald) is now in Arizona. Could the Mariners work their magic once again on a name we do not know? Sure. But do you want to bet on it in another critical, must-win year? Do you want to give yourself a better chance to have a better start out of the gates than you have the last two seasons? Then why not also add another swing-type reliever?

There are different ways to build a winning roster, and it must be noted that once again there’s potential for some of the bigger impact to come from improvement with players already on the roster – or perhaps even a spring training surprise from within. Ryan Bliss anyone?

That said, adding offense from the outside obviously will be important, but how much impact will they be able to make on the free agent and trade fronts? I think we all would love to be pleasantly surprised and see some of those dreamed-about bats. But if we don’t, further leaning in on the pitching could be the answer.

Shannon already setting up the excuses for Jerry...

[D-train]

I read that at lunch and nearly lost my lunch....

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Official water carrier for Jerry. Imagine that. We need a better Dh and some offence. She has given Jerry every escape route she could possibly give. To me she is completely irrelevant and needs to be ignored

[D-train]

I think RRS makes some great points about Teo. If by some miracle he accepts the QO at least that hole is filled. Let him play RF and then go get another Corner OF and DH or let Ford DH or DH him and get 2 Corner OFers but now they are desperate with multiple and teams and agents know that. If he doesn't then you get another precious draft pick that you can use on a college pitcher to get so much need SP depth in the system.

[Big_Maple]

Just read Jon Morosi's article about the GM Meetings and rumors. Read the whole article here:

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1769016/ ... -meetings/

Two interesting take aways. The first is that Morosi speculates the ever-frugal Rays may be ready to shed a little salary, and Morosi suggests that Yandy Diaz would be available. I would shit my pants if we made this deal happen. He was good for 5.2 WAR last season, and his bat was smokin with a .330/.410/.522 slash line. He hit 22 homers, and carried an OPS+ of 158

I mean...holy shit.

Morosi suggested a deal for Miller or Woo would be close. I checked the trade calculator, and it would likely cost a couple of top prospects as well, so this trade would hurt us immediately with the loss of Miller, and in the long term with Ford and and Locklear. Assuming the Rays would even pull the trigger. But this would be a huge upgrade, and we'd have Diaz through 2025 with a club option in 2026.

Second, Morosi reports that SportsNet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith indicated the Jays were interested in Suarez now that Chapman is gone. SodoMojo suggested this as well today, and proposed a trade for Geno to the Jays with Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson to the M's in return. I'm not a huge Biggio fan and I don't think he would add much since he's basically an infield utility guy which we have in spades. The Jays do have 3 solid major-league catchers, and of those, a trade for Daulton Varsho would be intriguig. He's not going to light it up offensively, but he's a great defensive catcher, and he can play other infield positions as well...and he's durable. This might not be a like-for-like trade, but we toss someone else into the mix and it mgith give us a potent combo behind the dish:

[D-train]

Just read Jon Morosi's article about the GM Meetings and rumors. Read the whole article here:

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1769016/ ... -meetings/

Two interesting take aways. The first is that Morosi speculates the ever-frugal Rays may be ready to shed a little salary, and Morosi suggests that Yandy Diaz would be available. I would shit my pants if we made this deal happen. He was good for 5.2 WAR last season, and his bat was smokin with a .330/.410/.522 slash line. He hit 22 homers, and carried an OPS+ of 158

I mean...holy shit.

Morosi suggested a deal for Miller or Woo would be close. I checked the trade calculator, and it would likely cost a couple of top prospects as well, so this trade would hurt us immediately with the loss of Miller, and in the long term with Ford and and Locklear. Assuming the Rays would even pull the trigger. But this would be a huge upgrade, and we'd have Diaz through 2025 with a club option in 2026.

Screenshot 2023-11-09 at 11.54.29 AM.png

Second, Morosi reports that SportsNet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith indicated the Jays were interested in Suarez now that Chapman is gone. SodoMojo suggested this as well today, and proposed a trade for Geno to the Jays with Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson to the M's in return. I'm not a huge Biggio fan and I don't think he would add much since he's basically an infield utility guy which we have in spades. The Jays do have 3 solid major-league catchers, and of those, a trade for Daulton Varsho would be intriguig. He's not going to light it up offensively, but he's a great defensive catcher, and he can play other infield positions as well...and he's durable. This might not be a like-for-like trade, but we toss someone else into the mix and it mgith give us a potent combo behind the dish:

Nice work BM! Swap Locklear with JK and I am all in!!!!

[Big_Maple]

Nice work BM! Swap Locklear with JK and I am all in!!!!

Gladly. The math works even better (if you accept MLB Trade Calculator values as accurate). The question is whether the Rays would want him.

[bpj]

Just read Jon Morosi's article about the GM Meetings and rumors. Read the whole article here:

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1769016/ ... -meetings/

Two interesting take aways. The first is that Morosi speculates the ever-frugal Rays may be ready to shed a little salary, and Morosi suggests that Yandy Diaz would be available. I would shit my pants if we made this deal happen. He was good for 5.2 WAR last season, and his bat was smokin with a .330/.410/.522 slash line. He hit 22 homers, and carried an OPS+ of 158

I mean...holy shit.

Morosi suggested a deal for Miller or Woo would be close. I checked the trade calculator, and it would likely cost a couple of top prospects as well, so this trade would hurt us immediately with the loss of Miller, and in the long term with Ford and and Locklear. Assuming the Rays would even pull the trigger. But this would be a huge upgrade, and we'd have Diaz through 2025 with a club option in 2026.

Screenshot 2023-11-09 at 11.54.29 AM.png

Second, Morosi reports that SportsNet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith indicated the Jays were interested in Suarez now that Chapman is gone. SodoMojo suggested this as well today, and proposed a trade for Geno to the Jays with Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson to the M's in return. I'm not a huge Biggio fan and I don't think he would add much since he's basically an infield utility guy which we have in spades. The Jays do have 3 solid major-league catchers, and of those, a trade for Daulton Varsho would be intriguig. He's not going to light it up offensively, but he's a great defensive catcher, and he can play other infield positions as well...and he's durable. This might not be a like-for-like trade, but we toss someone else into the mix and it mgith give us a potent combo behind the dish:

Good stuff Big Maple!

I think Diaz should be at the top of their list, but Dipoto probably views him as too one dimensional of a player.

Or, hopefully Dippy has learned his lesson that that dimension- the hitting- is what we actually need, not "versatility".

[Big_Maple]

I think Diaz should be at the top of their list, but Dipoto probably views him as too one dimensional of a player.

Or, hopefully Dippy has learned his lesson that that dimension- the hitting- is what we actually need, not "versatility".

Yes - Dippy's verbal diarrhea often comes back to bite him in the ass.

Curious, though. Is his emphasis on versatility just for this offseason? I mean, the big "get" last season was Teo who, to my way of thinking, is the antithesis of versatile. He's a one trick pony who couldn't even perform his one trick for half the season.

So is the versatility shit just something he got the giddies for recently? In fairness, I rarely pay attention to half the stuff he says because I don't think even he believes it. And...he bores me.

[bpj]

I think Diaz should be at the top of their list, but Dipoto probably views him as too one dimensional of a player.

Or, hopefully Dippy has learned his lesson that that dimension- the hitting- is what we actually need, not "versatility".

Yes - Dippy's verbal diarrhea often comes back to bite him in the ass.

Curious, though. Is his emphasis on versatility just for this offseason? I mean, the big "get" last season was Teo who, to my way of thinking, is the antithesis of versatile. He's a one trick pony who couldn't even perform his one trick for half the season.

So is the versatility shit just something he got the giddies for recently? In fairness, I rarely pay attention to half the stuff he says because I don't think even he believes it. And...he bores me.

Yeah, I think to Dipoto versatility just meant that the player actually has a position to play. He's averse to an "everyday DH".

Unfortunately, that's exactly what we need. The actual DH that gets the 400 plate appearances at DH and then backs up at 1B or COF. But he doesn't value that type of player.

He likes leaving the DH role open and sliding the next bench guy into the lineup instead.