Thread Thief GT 9/15

[Seattle or Bust]

And, Ichiro's numbers would be down in 2024 offensively just like everyone else's.

That's exactly why they use stats like wRC+ and OPS+ to show how your numbers stack up relative to your peers.

Ichiro was only 7% better than his average peers from 2005-2011 with a 107 wRC+. He's not suddenly going to outperform his peers now that the avg fastball is up several mph.

He had a good first 4 years. Good for Ichiro.

From 2005-2011 (he played until 2019) he was most comparable to these world beaters, ranked right there with the great David DeJesus and Lyle Overbay...:

I don't buy that.

If Luis Arraez can hit .350 in this era Ichiro certainly would.

But sure, Ichiro hitting .312/.352/.463/.788 in 2003 for a 112 OPS+ is worse than Justin Turner's .248/.347/.376/.723 114 OPS+ for the Mariners. Yeah fuckin' right.

OPS+ was majorly deflated to the middle by a bevy of high-end power hitters in the early 2000's... in 2001 you had 79 hitters with an OPS over .800... in 2024 you have 39. If you weren't a power hitter in that era your OPS+ was going to to suffer.

You're looking at batters now as if they just suck compared to then, instead of looking at the reality that it's the pitching that has improved to alter the game.

In 2007 (first yr velo data was available) there were 4 qualified SP's in MLB with 100+ innings that had an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2024 there are 33 SP's in MLB with 100+ innings that have an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2007 there were 22 qualified RP's in MLB with an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2024 there are 89 qualified RP's in MLB with an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2007 there were 38 SP's with an avg fastball velocity >92mph.

In 2024 there are 98 SP's with an avg fastball velocity >92mph.

That's an average of 3 per team now compared to 1 per team in 2007.

You get the idea.

It's a different ballgame now and Ichiro wouldn't be doing any better than anyone else imo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 7&qual=100

I agree pitching has gotten better.

I don't agree that hitters have gotten better. Certainly not going to even consider that a 41 year old Justin Turner is a better hitter than a 28 year old Ichiro.

Ichiro would be a star in today's game just like he was back then.

[bpj]

I don't buy that.

If Luis Arraez can hit .350 in this era Ichiro certainly would.

But sure, Ichiro hitting .312/.352/.463/.788 in 2003 for a 112 OPS+ is worse than Justin Turner's .248/.347/.376/.723 114 OPS+ for the Mariners. Yeah fuckin' right.

OPS+ was majorly deflated to the middle by a bevy of high-end power hitters in the early 2000's... in 2001 you had 79 hitters with an OPS over .800... in 2024 you have 39. If you weren't a power hitter in that era your OPS+ was going to to suffer.

You're looking at batters now as if they just suck compared to then, instead of looking at the reality that it's the pitching that has improved to alter the game.

In 2007 (first yr velo data was available) there were 4 qualified SP's in MLB with 100+ innings that had an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2024 there are 33 SP's in MLB with 100+ innings that have an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2007 there were 22 qualified RP's in MLB with an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2024 there are 89 qualified RP's in MLB with an average fastball velocity >95mph.

In 2007 there were 38 SP's with an avg fastball velocity >92mph.

In 2024 there are 98 SP's with an avg fastball velocity >92mph.

That's an average of 3 per team now compared to 1 per team in 2007.

You get the idea.

It's a different ballgame now and Ichiro wouldn't be doing any better than anyone else imo.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 7&qual=100

I agree pitching has gotten better.

I don't agree that hitters have gotten better. Certainly not going to even consider that a 41 year old Justin Turner is a better hitter than a 28 year old Ichiro.

Ichiro would be a star in today's game just like he was back then.

Ichiro was always overrated, some of you just have trouble grasping the fact that his style of play didn't help the team much.

He was a great singles hitter. Unfortunately there's not much value there.

Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh have both put up a 112 wRC+ this season, just like Ichiro did when he was 28.

Pretty good, but not great.

[D-train]

If he could have hit a lot more homers like many say but just didn't want to then either he didn't understand sabermetrics or he didn't care.

[Seattle or Bust]

I just disagree that "singles hitters" aren't important.

Both Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh would laugh at you if you asked them if they are as good as Ichiro in his prime this year.

[D-train]

I just disagree that "singles hitters" aren't important.

Both Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh would laugh at you if you asked them if they are as good as Ichiro in his prime this year.

So are a Flat Earther when it comes to advanced analytics.

[Seattle or Bust]

I just disagree that "singles hitters" aren't important.

Both Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh would laugh at you if you asked them if they are as good as Ichiro in his prime this year.

So are a Flat Earther when it comes to advanced analytics.

If you wanna make the claim that Justin Turner's 41 year old season with a .722 OPS is as good as Ichiro in his prime, you go ahead.

You'll be right up there with Harmony.

[bpj]

I just disagree that "singles hitters" aren't important.

Both Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh would laugh at you if you asked them if they are as good as Ichiro in his prime this year.

Comparing their wRC+ and OPS+ to other hitters shows you how important singles hitters are.

Ichiro was a little more valuable than John Olerud and Mike Cameron in 2003, good for him.

His contributions in 2003 were just as valuable to his team as Kevin Millar and AJ Pierzinski's were to theirs.

Not exactly world beaters. But fine players on both sides.

[Seattle or Bust]

I just disagree that "singles hitters" aren't important.

Both Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh would laugh at you if you asked them if they are as good as Ichiro in his prime this year.

Comparing their wRC+ and OPS+ to other hitters shows you how important singles hitters are.

Ichiro was a little more valuable than John Olerud and Mike Cameron in 2003, good for him.

His contributions in 2003 were just as valuable to his team as Kevin Millar and AJ Pierzinski's were to theirs.

Not exactly world beaters. But fine players on both sides.

Until you look at base running and hitting combined in the column on the right.

That's why his hitting singles was very impactful. And why he was an elite lead off hitter which is why I'm making the claim that OPS+ or wRC+ doesn't tell the full story w. Ichiro.

[Captain 97]

I just disagree that "singles hitters" aren't important.

Both Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh would laugh at you if you asked them if they are as good as Ichiro in his prime this year.

2024 Raleigh is better than 2003 Ichiro. I'll take the guy with 66 runs scored and 93 RBI on a team with 617 runs over the guy with 111 Runs scored and 62 RBI on a team that scored 795 runs. Put 2003 Ichiro in this putrid 2024 lineup and he probably has about 90 runs and 50 RBI.

[Seattle or Bust]

I just disagree that "singles hitters" aren't important.

Both Justin Turner and Cal Raleigh would laugh at you if you asked them if they are as good as Ichiro in his prime this year.

2024 Raleigh is better than 2003 Ichiro. I'll take the guy with 66 runs scored and 93 RBI on a team with 617 runs over the guy with 111 Runs scored and 62 RBI on a team that scored 795 runs. Put 2003 Ichiro in this putrid 2024 lineup and he probably has about 90 runs and 50 RBI.

I'm making the claim that 2003 Ichiro is not a 112 OPS+ hitter in 2024.

I don't see Ichiro's stats dropping if you had him in his prime in 2024 which means he'd be at like a 130 OPS+ with those stats today.

Like you're just not going to convince me that Victor Robles is so much more talented than Ichiro with a bat in his hands. Or Luis Arraez?

For Ichiro to be a 112 OPS+ hitter in 2024... he'd be hitting like .275/.330/.390... is anyone brave enough to make the claim that a 28 year old Ichiro is that bad?

No... pitching is better... but the bulk of hitters just suck in 2024. Offensive talent is down league wide IMO.