Off Season Plan

[Seattle or Bust]

Numbers since 6/1:

1. Victor Robles LF: .337/.404/.475/.879
2. Julio Rodriguez CF: .271/.334/.451/.785
3. Luke Raley 1B/OF: .235/.330/.498/.828
4. Randy Arozarena RF: .256/.377/.441/.818
5. Yandy Diaz 1B/DH: .310/.358/.469/.827
6. Cal Raleigh C: .214/.323/.422/.745
7. Brandon Lowe 2B: .254/.315/.495/.810
8. Yoan Moncada 3B: N/A... .950 OPS over 12 AAA games.
9. JP Crawford SS: .193/.309/.309/.618 ( )

4th OF: Andrew Benintendi .248/.329/.470/.799

Bench: Dylan Moore Util, Luis Rivas Util, Some catcher

1. Logan Gilbert
2. George Kirby
3. Luis Castillo
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo

CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, Collin Snider
ML: Troy Taylor, JT Chargois, Austin Voth
LL: Couple of no names off the street

SoB - thanks for putting this together. I know it took a lot of time, and frankly this is the kind of stuff I like reading...metaphysical navel gazing. Rosterbating. Whatever. I thought this was a fun read.

I saw Benintendi play this summer in Detroit. He struck me as a competent but not flashy LF. But looking at his stats, His best years seem to have been with the Red Sox, and his tenure with the White Sox was bumpy to say the least. Then again, he was surrounded by crap and maybe that affected him - it's hard to look around for inspiration when your team loses 120+ games in a season. IMHO, he'd be a risky bounce back candidate. I feel like this might be a trade of suckage for suckage...just shuffling the deck chairs.

The M's ought to shoot a little higher, in my opinion. My top "get" (after the un-getable Soto, that is) would be Rooker. But his asking price will be insanely high. The dude put up 5.5 WAR this season. My second (or third) choice would be BoSox's Wilyer Abreu. The dude is electric, and Boston has an embarassment of riches in the outfield. Abreu's name has been mentioned in several trade rumors. But it would likely take a Logan Gilbert or George Kirby to make that deal happen. I would be willing to part with Kirby, but not Logan to net Abreu.

I'd be happy with Diaz and Lowe. I'm not sure how even that trade proposal is, but it seems like it would work.

Thanks for the kind words. It really just is content in the face of, "SPEND MONEY OWNERS!!!"

This proposal is more in line with what I think they try to do. I'm over making off season plans with Soto, Judge, whoever in them.

[Pharmabro]

M's will non-tender: Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Trent Thorton, Tayler Saucedo...

And will not pick up the option for Jorge Polanco.

This saves about $25 million compared to 2024.

The M's would save $13 million against Haniger and Garver's contracts after picking up Benintendi's $17 million.

This gives the M's about $38 million (again this is all really loose) in cash compared to '24.

Diaz, Lowe, Moncada would all add about $26 million total.

Take arb increases into consideration, Robles and Julio's new money... and I'm eyeballing like a $20ish million increase from 2024's payroll.

I am going to offer my feedback because why else would you post it.

Trade 1
I have coveted Lowe for years even with the injury Hx. He has a 122 OPS+ on the year and a 125 career. He is another swipe at the 2B jackpot. with 2 friendly team options and even cheaper vs Polanco. And I love that he is left handed which offsets the all righty OF.
Yandy Diaz 1B is just a year removed from winning the batting title. ANd a 158 OPS+. He is just a 1-year guy 10M with a zero buyout of a 12M option for 2026.

I will start with a negative, Neither of these guys is "The straw that stirs the drink". These guys are good supporting actors.
But, they are ideal targets in 2 ways:

They are at positions of need (2B, 3B, 1B, DH)

And

They have both the ability to be kept up to 2 years or let go if fit/injury/performance dictates.

And another negative, the package is way too weak for TB. I would gladly go for Lowe with the three you put up. Double it at least.

1B Tyler Locklear, 2B Michael Arroyo, RHP Michael Morales 1 Fringe top 100 and 2 top 100 adjacent is not enough but a good start. All three are top 13 per MLB.com
TB would need to get at least: 2 more legit top 100's
M's #2 2B/SS Cole Young, M's #9 OF Farmello, #21 Dawel Joseph SS ( #1 IFA for his period) Age 17. That gets it done!

Trade 2: Just no.
A.B. has been a 90 OPS+ corner OF the last 2 years And he is owed 50+ Mil over 3 years
Haniger's owed 15.5M
Mitch G. is owed 12M And he is calls a good game as a catcher and makes a fine back-up which you would have to pay somebody to do and back-ups? Fk-all you could pay some bum like Seby to have a 46 OPS+. That kind of a black hole you can't afford to put in the game.
If you look at the last 8 years of Mich's career you have almost perfect alternating good and bad OPS+ 70, 104, 157, 42, 139, 98, 138, 85.
The last 2 years AB has been a 90 OPS+. I think of him as a speed guy but he doesn't really have that skill. He has some pop around 20HR is his max. But you are making a bad money problem worse not better.

You choose the right team the Chicago squad but you package up either a top 100 type or bulk with a hand-full of top 30 prospects +/- cash for Hanniger only.

#3 Moncada: It is almost a coin flip between rolling with the Rojas/Moore tandem or non tendering for Rojas and signing Yoan to a pillow 6-Million dollar make good. I think the performance over the last couple of months with Edgar and Dan would make this an attractive landing spot for him. He has a 106 OPS+ career and a 117 OPS+ on the year. He is a slightly better profile vs Rojas for the position.

But Rojas is a solid player who is should be due for a modest raise up to 3.6-4M +/- and he is at a 96 OPS+ in exactly 600 PAs with the M's, he plays excellent D and 3.1 WAR during that span. ANd the counting stats:
12 HR, 16/20 SB, 23 doubles 2 triples.

And Dilly has been a 108 OPS+ guy with 30+ bags, double digit HR pop.

But at the end of the day career #s push the scale if you dump 4M in salary (Rojas) and add 6M for Moncada and you bump the OPS+ average from 93 to 106 in the process and the max performance year from 110 OPS+ to 140 OPS+ you do it.

Numbers since 6/1:

1. Victor Robles LF: .337/.404/.475/.879
2. Julio Rodriguez CF: .271/.334/.451/.785
3. Luke Raley* 1B/OF: .235/.330/.498/.828
4. Randy Arozarena RF: .256/.377/.441/.818
5. Brandon Lowe* 2B: .254/.315/.495/.810
6. Cal Raleigh** C: .214/.323/.422/.745
7. Yandy Diaz 1B/DH: .310/.358/.469/.827
8. Yoan Moncada** 3B: N/A... .950 OPS over 12 AAA games.
9. JP Crawford SS: .193/.309/.309/.618 ( )

With Edgar as emperor that line-up looks like the Death-Star!

Oh, and add a power lefty to the pen and we would have #1 SP, top 5 Offense, and with Brash, Santos, TT, JT, Snider, and a power lefty that BP isn't #10 ranked like the current banged up BP. That BP is in the top 2 or 3!

Death-Star!

[Pharmabro]

M's will non-tender: Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Trent Thorton, Tayler Saucedo...

And will not pick up the option for Jorge Polanco.

This saves about $25 million compared to 2024.

We still do this!

The M's would save $13 million against Haniger and Garver's contracts after picking up Benintendi's $17 million.

The M's send $4M along with a prospect pack for getting rid of Hanniger.The M's save 28.3 M over 3 years my way vs. yours and a million +/- for the nameless catcher to replace Garver next year

This gives the M's about $38 million (again this is all really loose) in cash compared to '24.

2025 budget gets a 27.5 M Bump from those moves vs yours. But most of your impact is retained.

Diaz, Lowe, Moncada would all add about $26 million total.

26.5

Take arb increases into consideration, Robles and Julio's new money... and I'm eyeballing like a $20ish million increase from 2024's payroll.

I don't care to calculate any of this but mine is more short term $ and less long term $

[Seattle or Bust]

M's will non-tender: Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Trent Thorton, Tayler Saucedo...

And will not pick up the option for Jorge Polanco.

This saves about $25 million compared to 2024.

The M's would save $13 million against Haniger and Garver's contracts after picking up Benintendi's $17 million.

This gives the M's about $38 million (again this is all really loose) in cash compared to '24.

Diaz, Lowe, Moncada would all add about $26 million total.

Take arb increases into consideration, Robles and Julio's new money... and I'm eyeballing like a $20ish million increase from 2024's payroll.

I am going to offer my feedback because why else would you post it.

Trade 1
I have coveted Lowe for years even with the injury Hx. He has a 122 OPS+ on the year and a 125 career. He is another swipe at the 2B jackpot. with 2 friendly team options and even cheaper vs Polanco. And I love that he is left handed which offsets the all righty OF.
Yandy Diaz 1B is just a year removed from winning the batting title. ANd a 158 OPS+. He is just a 1-year guy 10M with a zero buyout of a 12M option for 2026.

I will start with a negative, Neither of these guys is "The straw that stirs the drink". These guys are good supporting actors.
But, they are ideal targets in 2 ways:

They are at positions of need (2B, 3B, 1B, DH)

And

They have both the ability to be kept up to 2 years or let go if fit/injury/performance dictates.

And another negative, the package is way too weak for TB. I would gladly go for Lowe with the three you put up. Double it at least.

1B Tyler Locklear, 2B Michael Arroyo, RHP Michael Morales 1 Fringe top 100 and 2 top 100 adjacent is not enough but a good start. All three are top 13 per MLB.com
TB would need to get at least: 2 more legit top 100's
M's #2 2B/SS Cole Young, M's #9 OF Farmello, #21 Dawel Joseph SS ( #1 IFA for his period) Age 17. That gets it done!

Trade 2: Just no.
A.B. has been a 90 OPS+ corner OF the last 2 years And he is owed 50+ Mil over 3 years
Haniger's owed 15.5M
Mitch G. is owed 12M And he is calls a good game as a catcher and makes a fine back-up which you would have to pay somebody to do and back-ups? Fk-all you could pay some bum like Seby to have a 46 OPS+. That kind of a black hole you can't afford to put in the game.
If you look at the last 8 years of Mich's career you have almost perfect alternating good and bad OPS+ 70, 104, 157, 42, 139, 98, 138, 85.
The last 2 years AB has been a 90 OPS+. I think of him as a speed guy but he doesn't really have that skill. He has some pop around 20HR is his max. But you are making a bad money problem worse not better.

You choose the right team the Chicago squad but you package up either a top 100 type or bulk with a hand-full of top 30 prospects +/- cash for Hanniger only.

#3 Moncada: It is almost a coin flip between rolling with the Rojas/Moore tandem or non tendering for Rojas and signing Yoan to a pillow 6-Million dollar make good. I think the performance over the last couple of months with Edgar and Dan would make this an attractive landing spot for him. He has a 106 OPS+ career and a 117 OPS+ on the year. He is a slightly better profile vs Rojas for the position.

But Rojas is a solid player who is should be due for a modest raise up to 3.6-4M +/- and he is at a 96 OPS+ in exactly 600 PAs with the M's, he plays excellent D and 3.1 WAR during that span. ANd the counting stats:
12 HR, 16/20 SB, 23 doubles 2 triples.

And Dilly has been a 108 OPS+ guy with 30+ bags, double digit HR pop.

But at the end of the day career #s push the scale if you dump 4M in salary (Rojas) and add 6M for Moncada and you bump the OPS+ average from 93 to 106 in the process and the max performance year from 110 OPS+ to 140 OPS+ you do it.

Numbers since 6/1:

1. Victor Robles LF: .337/.404/.475/.879
2. Julio Rodriguez CF: .271/.334/.451/.785
3. Luke Raley* 1B/OF: .235/.330/.498/.828
4. Randy Arozarena RF: .256/.377/.441/.818
5. Brandon Lowe* 2B: .254/.315/.495/.810
6. Cal Raleigh** C: .214/.323/.422/.745
7. Yandy Diaz 1B/DH: .310/.358/.469/.827
8. Yoan Moncada** 3B: N/A... .950 OPS over 12 AAA games.
9. JP Crawford SS: .193/.309/.309/.618 ( )

With Edgar as emperor that line-up looks like the Death-Star!

Oh, and add a power lefty to the pen and we would have #1 SP, top 5 Offense, and with Brash, Santos, TT, JT, Snider, and a power lefty that BP isn't #10 ranked like the current banged up BP. That BP is in the top 2 or 3!

Death-Star!

1) The M's can't afford players that stir the drink more. These are the type of players that are capable of acquiring and likely will acquire.

2) The package is in line with MLBTV values. Despite a strong finish to the season, Diaz still posted a .578 OPS in April. He's a 33 year old 1B with limited pop owed money the next 2 years. Lowe is a monster injury risk who has never played more than 110 games in a season. He's averaged around 80 games a year after debuting in 2018. Both of these guys have their warts which reduces their trade value. You could get a top 100 prospect for both of them... but as we've seen... Tampa takes more bulk packages back on guys they covet that other teams might not. You can make an argument that Arroyo had the best season of any player in the M's farm system. Locklear still has a ton of upside despite a slowish finish compared to his MiLB norms.

3) You sort of ignored everything I posted about Benintendi's last 4 months. He's been a top 40 OF hitter in baseball since 6/1. Since 6/1, he's posted a 128 wRC+ while the White Sox have posted a league-worst 75 wRC+ in that time. Without him, they'd be in the 60's so he's got 0 protection. I also talk about the money when discussing Benintendi. If he can be a 110-120 wRC+ bat like he's been on competitive teams, you could do worse paying a guy $9 million a year in the final 2 years of his deal.

[OLdvanDawg]

Hopefully, JD will let Wilson have a say in the construction of the team. Given what I would consider success, he deserves to set the team his way.

[Seattle or Bust]

Hopefully, JD will let Wilson have a say in the construction of the team. Given what I would consider success, he deserves to set the team his way.

I doubt that would happen. Coaches don't get much say.

The more I look... this trade plan makes more and more sense. Lowe, Diaz, Benintendi add a light salary increase and are impact bats.

Since 8/1 Benintendi has a 141 wRC+.

[Vogelbomb]

I think the pen should be about 75 percent of the offseason focus. It's where you have the most options and fell short the hardest. 10 blown saves in '24?

1-I'm picking up Polanco's option. It's one season at $12m. What's the point of quibbling over an extra $2-3m? My thought is this: Polanco is a switch-hitter, can move over and play 3b, can also back up at 2b and SS. What better option is there for 3b? and 2, what will that option cost? I think Polanco will rebound with a solid season especially with Edgar hanging around to help him mentally. And I want the flexibility to bring up our prospects at 3b and ss in 26 and beyond. You've got Arroyo, Young knocking on the door. Another year and Emerson, Celesten will be.
2-re-sign Yimi. As long as the meds check out, re-up this guy. He's lights out.
3-non-tender Saucedo; tender everyone else including Urias
4-re-sign Turner. 1 yr, $8m?
5-peg Ryan Bliss for 2B 162gm. No platoon. Let him do his thing. I think he should leadoff, too.
6-see if you can move Haniger, Canzone, Moore
7-execute your plan in the pen. I'm not a Munoz fan. I think he's not a strong enough/reliable enough closer. I would look at my other options. Maybe it's Taylor?
8-move Brash to the rotation. He's projected to return sometime in May according to my sources. And Brash is said to still want to be a starter. I think by doing this you keep him healthy (gives him regular 5-6 days off). His soggy arm wasn't bouncing back as a reliever. Put him in AAA with Hancock and Evans and you've got options when Woo hits the IL or you encounter a doubleheader. And you can slowly build him back up. Guys are never strong first year back from TJ. Takes about 100 innings to get back into form.

LINEUP
1 Bliss 2b
2 Robles rf
3 Rodriguez cf
4 Raleigh c
5 Arozarena lf
6 Raley 1b
7 Polanco 3b
8 Garver/Turner dh
9 Crawford ss

BENCH
Turner
Urias
Rivas
Samad Taylor

ROTATION
1 Kirby
2 Gilbert
3 Castillo
4 Miller
5 Woo

PEN
Munoz
Garcia
Santos
Taylor
Thornton
Chargois
Speier
? closer option?

I think that team is a juggernaut honestly. The rotation is nails. You've got burgeoning superstars in Robles, Julio, Cal; you've got solid, above avg wRC+ guys in Raley, Polanco, Turner, potentially Bliss and Garver (I think he bounces back to form w/ new hitting coach + philosophy). And then you've got speed all over the place, too. The pen is capable. I'm down to add a legit closer option if there's one to be had. I'd prefer an 7-man pen and 5-man bench, but that probably won't be how the team is shaped.

[Vogelbomb]

re Bliss at leadoff...

Probably not in April, but I think once he gets going, that lineup is the best lineup. You get Bliss on base, Robles' ability to hit and high obp gives Julio, Cal, Randy behind them multiple ducks on the pond. And more often than not, Bliss will steal 2b before Robles puts ball in play. Or you can hit and run. I just like that a lot.

[D-train]

I think the pen should be about 75 percent of the offseason focus. It's where you have the most options and fell short the hardest. 10 blown saves in '24?

1-I'm picking up Polanco's option. It's one season at $12m. What's the point of quibbling over an extra $2-3m? My thought is this: Polanco is a switch-hitter, can move over and play 3b, can also back up at 2b and SS. What better option is there for 3b? and 2, what will that option cost? I think Polanco will rebound with a solid season especially with Edgar hanging around to help him mentally. And I want the flexibility to bring up our prospects at 3b and ss in 26 and beyond. You've got Arroyo, Young knocking on the door. Another year and Emerson, Celesten will be.
2-re-sign Yimi. As long as the meds check out, re-up this guy. He's lights out.
3-non-tender Saucedo; tender everyone else including Urias
4-re-sign Turner. 1 yr, $8m?
5-peg Ryan Bliss for 2B 162gm. No platoon. Let him do his thing. I think he should leadoff, too.
6-see if you can move Haniger, Canzone, Moore
7-execute your plan in the pen. I'm not a Munoz fan. I think he's not a strong enough/reliable enough closer. I would look at my other options. Maybe it's Taylor?
8-move Brash to the rotation. He's projected to return sometime in May according to my sources. And Brash is said to still want to be a starter. I think by doing this you keep him healthy (gives him regular 5-6 days off). His soggy arm wasn't bouncing back as a reliever. Put him in AAA with Hancock and Evans and you've got options when Woo hits the IL or you encounter a doubleheader. And you can slowly build him back up. Guys are never strong first year back from TJ. Takes about 100 innings to get back into form.

LINEUP
1 Bliss 2b
2 Robles rf
3 Rodriguez cf
4 Raleigh c
5 Arozarena lf
6 Raley 1b
7 Polanco 3b
8 Garver/Turner dh
9 Crawford ss

BENCH
Turner
Urias
Rivas
Samad Taylor

ROTATION
1 Kirby
2 Gilbert
3 Castillo
4 Miller
5 Woo

PEN
Munoz
Garcia
Santos
Taylor
Thornton
Chargois
Speier
? closer option?

I think that team is a juggernaut honestly. The rotation is nails. You've got burgeoning superstars in Robles, Julio, Cal; you've got solid, above avg wRC+ guys in Raley, Polanco, Turner, potentially Bliss and Garver (I think he bounces back to form w/ new hitting coach + philosophy). And then you've got speed all over the place, too. The pen is capable. I'm down to add a legit closer option if there's one to be had. I'd prefer an 7-man pen and 5-man bench, but that probably won't be how the team is shaped.

I would rather have Julio Cruz' decaying corpse on this team than Polanco. You are basically promoting Ignorance is Bliss and calling it good to just run it back. Holy fuck man. How do you come up with this stuff.

[Seattle or Bust]

I think the pen should be about 75 percent of the offseason focus. It's where you have the most options and fell short the hardest. 10 blown saves in '24?

1-I'm picking up Polanco's option. It's one season at $12m. What's the point of quibbling over an extra $2-3m? My thought is this: Polanco is a switch-hitter, can move over and play 3b, can also back up at 2b and SS. What better option is there for 3b? and 2, what will that option cost? I think Polanco will rebound with a solid season especially with Edgar hanging around to help him mentally. And I want the flexibility to bring up our prospects at 3b and ss in 26 and beyond. You've got Arroyo, Young knocking on the door. Another year and Emerson, Celesten will be.
2-re-sign Yimi. As long as the meds check out, re-up this guy. He's lights out.
3-non-tender Saucedo; tender everyone else including Urias
4-re-sign Turner. 1 yr, $8m?
5-peg Ryan Bliss for 2B 162gm. No platoon. Let him do his thing. I think he should leadoff, too.
6-see if you can move Haniger, Canzone, Moore
7-execute your plan in the pen. I'm not a Munoz fan. I think he's not a strong enough/reliable enough closer. I would look at my other options. Maybe it's Taylor?
8-move Brash to the rotation. He's projected to return sometime in May according to my sources. And Brash is said to still want to be a starter. I think by doing this you keep him healthy (gives him regular 5-6 days off). His soggy arm wasn't bouncing back as a reliever. Put him in AAA with Hancock and Evans and you've got options when Woo hits the IL or you encounter a doubleheader. And you can slowly build him back up. Guys are never strong first year back from TJ. Takes about 100 innings to get back into form.

LINEUP
1 Bliss 2b
2 Robles rf
3 Rodriguez cf
4 Raleigh c
5 Arozarena lf
6 Raley 1b
7 Polanco 3b
8 Garver/Turner dh
9 Crawford ss

BENCH
Turner
Urias
Rivas
Samad Taylor

ROTATION
1 Kirby
2 Gilbert
3 Castillo
4 Miller
5 Woo

PEN
Munoz
Garcia
Santos
Taylor
Thornton
Chargois
Speier
? closer option?

I think that team is a juggernaut honestly. The rotation is nails. You've got burgeoning superstars in Robles, Julio, Cal; you've got solid, above avg wRC+ guys in Raley, Polanco, Turner, potentially Bliss and Garver (I think he bounces back to form w/ new hitting coach + philosophy). And then you've got speed all over the place, too. The pen is capable. I'm down to add a legit closer option if there's one to be had. I'd prefer an 7-man pen and 5-man bench, but that probably won't be how the team is shaped.

1. Word is that Polanco's body is a mess. No way I'm giving him $12 million. He never hit above .241 in a month and finished August/September about back where he started. Did you watch him play 2B this year? And you think the M's will give him reps at 3B and SS?

2. Yimi had an ERA of 6.00 and a FIP of 7.28 for the Mariners. He has a vesting option that might be a club option. Idk how it works.

3. Tender Rojas and Urias? Are you nuts? That's like $9 million in wasted money.

4. There's not a planet where Bliss plays 162 at 2B and Polanco is a Mariner.

5. Sure. Move Haniger... not sure how. Canzone should only be involved in a trade where you're getting something back b/c he costs you nothing. Why trade Moore? He put up 2.2 bWAR, was a 104 OPS+ bat, stole 32 bags, player stellar D, and did that all for $3 million.

6. You say you want to focus 75% of the effort on the pen and then just bring back back almost all of it besides Saucedo

7. Your idea for bringing one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball back from Tommy John is to convert him into a starter? Huh!? Talk about a snowball's chance in hell.