Hot stove 2.0

[Pharmabro]

1st As per usual: No on Polanco's option, dump all the trashy arbitration guys:
Dump:
Austin Voth (5.115): $2.2MM
Luis Urias (5.014): $5MM
Trent Thornton (4.148): $2.1MM
Josh Rojas (4.126): $4.3MM
Sam Haggerty (4.036): $900K
Tayler Saucedo (3.112): $1MM
Gabe Speier (2.172): $900K

Keep:
Randy Arozarena (4.129): $11.7MM
Logan Gilbert (3.144): $8.1MM
Cal Raleigh (3.085): $5.6MM
George Kirby (2.151): $5.5MM
JT Chargois (5.101): $1.7MM

I am packing up -15.5M Mitch H.
Chicago WS get Mitch H. -15.6M, Tyler Locklear 12.4M, Walter Ford 2M, and 2.5M cash

The cutting of the chaff frees up about 45-50M in salary for 2025.

Trade for a 1B:
M's get Yandy Diaz 10M for 2025, 12M for 2026 0$ buyout. He had a 116 OPS+ after a slow start. He has a 126 OPS+ career and was the batting-average crown winner in 2023.His peak year was a 157 OPS+. He is more of a contributor than the main guy his max output was 22HR and 78 RBI. He does has some positional flexibility in that he can also play 3B.

The deal M's get Yandy Diaz 15.4M 1B/3B

Rays get 2B/SS Arroyo 13.5M, RHP Teddy McGraw 2.7M

M's trade for 2B Brandon Lowe. He is an oft injured player with a career 125 OPS+. He had a 121 OPS+ in 2024. His max year was 39 HR and a 154 OPS+. He is a lefty who helps balance out that line-up. He is owed 10.5M in 2025 with an 11.5M option in 2026. One of my thoughts on this acquisition is that even if he gets injured the M's have D. Moore who can more than fill in for his absence. Not to mention Ryan Bliss who is a great speed/power prospect who has had a decent little sample performance in MLB.

M's get: Brandon Lowe 2B/OF/1B 8.3m

Rays get: Ben Williamson 6.8M, M. Morales 2.3M, Jimmy Joyce 2.1M

Sign F.A. LHBP stud Tanner Scott 4 for 64M . He is that dominant lefty to pair with a fleet of dominant RH BP parts. I really want a dominant LH BP guy and he is among the best. That is Sport trac's estimate. He has been better than 200 ERA+ in the last 2 years. He was at 4 WAR this year.
FA options include A. Chapman but I am told Seattle would never sign a guy with his criminal history.
Tanner Scott 4/64M was one estimate
AJ Minter: 131 ERA+ career (Might be a more realistic target but let's go big)

Trade for 3B Jake Burger.

Miami is not looking to compete, but Burger is locked in as pre-arb. He has hit as many as 34 HR in a season and has been as high as a 125 OPS+. He has not displayed good defense at 3B but Mr. Perry has improved so many players including guys like Saurez that they should make the investment.

Miami gets

M's get: Jake Burger 15.1M
Miami: Cole Young 22.1M

My goal for the offseason was to:

Add an elite LH to the BP.
Add a combo of contributors who turn the lineup over in guys like Diaz, and add RBI producers AKA "base Sweepers" in guys like Burger, and Lowe:

Name, Position, OPS+ in 2024/ Career
1. Robles RF 155 / 90
2. JRod CF 116 / 130
3. Raley* DH 129 / 117
4. Randy LF 118 / 122
5. Cal** C 119 / 112
6. Yandy 1B 116 / 126
7. Lowe* 2B 121 / 125
8. Burger 3B 103 / 111
9. JP* SS 86 /102

Bench Garver C(85), Moore (104) Ut, Bliss Ut (102), Canzone* OF (91)

BP
Closer: Munoz, Tanner*
Set-up: Brash, Santos, Snider, JTC
Mid: TT, Buzardo
And noodles thrown at the wall plus the farm.

The starting rotation was the #1 unit and should continue to get better.

The BP as constructed should be better from getting back Santos and Brash but also adds an elite lefty in Scott? That has the makings for the #1 squad in all of baseball.

The line-up is solid top to bottom. Julio is your MVP candidate but FFS Burger has hit as many as 34 HR in a year and is your #8 hitter. JP is your #9 hitter and has a 131 OPS+ season under his belt.

I did trade 8 top 30 prospects. including 3 of what I consider top 100's .

[Pharmabro]

The 5 Arb guys = 32.6M
7 guys under contract = 80.125M
Top 12 + Haniger 2.%m and Jorge's buyout= 112.7M
14 other guys (.760K) = 10.6M
123.3M+/-
Yandy +10M
Lowe +10.5M
Tanner +16M
Total 157.5M

[Big_Maple]

I am packing up -15.5M Mitch H.
Chicago WS get Mitch H. -15.6M, Tyler Locklear 12.4M, Walter Ford 2M, and 2.5M cash

Super thorough - thanks! Lots to chew on.

Per above - what do we get in return from Chicago? Or am I missing something?

[Seattle or Bust]

Diaz and Lowe are fine.

I don't see the M's ever giving that kind of money for a reliever. If they wanted Scott that bad, they woulda traded for him over Yimi.

Burger is a nothing burger to me. I don't get the hype. .5 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR while hanging 29 homers is concerning.

[tehmc]

I am packing up -15.5M Mitch H.
Chicago WS get Mitch H. -15.6M, Tyler Locklear 12.4M, Walter Ford 2M, and 2.5M cash

Super thorough - thanks! Lots to chew on.

Per above - what do we get in return from Chicago? Or am I missing something?

This looks like a straight salary dump on our end and "buying" prospects on the Chicago end

[D-train]

Diaz and Lowe are fine.

I don't see the M's ever giving that kind of money for a reliever. If they wanted Scott that bad, they woulda traded for him over Yimi.

Burger is a nothing burger to me. I don't get the hype. .5 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR while hanging 29 homers is concerning.

.5 bWAR and 29 bombs is almost impossible to do. His D is HORRID. btw Rojas had 2.1 bWAR. lol

[D-train]

I am packing up -15.5M Mitch H.
Chicago WS get Mitch H. -15.6M, Tyler Locklear 12.4M, Walter Ford 2M, and 2.5M cash

Super thorough - thanks! Lots to chew on.

Per above - what do we get in return from Chicago? Or am I missing something?

This looks like a straight salary dump on our end and "buying" prospects on the Chicago end

MLB doesn't allow trades that don't have return of at least one player from both sides....Isn't this common knowledge???

[Pharmabro]

I am packing up -15.5M Mitch H.
Chicago WS get Mitch H. -15.6M, Tyler Locklear 12.4M, Walter Ford 2M, and 2.5M cash

Super thorough - thanks! Lots to chew on.

Per above - what do we get in return from Chicago? Or am I missing something?

Salary dump!

[Pharmabro]

Super thorough - thanks! Lots to chew on.

Per above - what do we get in return from Chicago? Or am I missing something?

This looks like a straight salary dump on our end and "buying" prospects on the Chicago end

MLB doesn't allow trades that don't have return of at least one player from both sides....Isn't this common knowledge???

No, I did not know this. Insert the name of some random dude:

[Pharmabro]

Diaz and Lowe are fine.

I don't see the M's ever giving that kind of money for a reliever. If they wanted Scott that bad, they woulda traded for him over Yimi.

Burger is a nothing burger to me. I don't get the hype. .5 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR while hanging 29 homers is concerning.

.5 bWAR and 29 bombs is almost impossible to do. His D is HORRID. btw Rojas had 2.1 bWAR. lol

On Rojas vs Burger it is combined runs and RBI the last 2 years.
Burger RBI=156, Runs 139 /278 games (91 RBI/162 & 81 runs/162)
Rojas RBI= 71, Runs = 95,/247 games (47 RBI/162 & 62 runs/162)

Rojas drives in runs at 1/2 the rate. It is closer than the raw #'s because Rojas only double dipped on HR RBI + a run but even so. And, IF Perry Hill is unable to improve his keystone corner D like he did with Geno, Rojas, and others you could slide over Dilly and DH Burger. Burger is actually much faster than he looks (27.9 FPS) which is equal to JK.
I think Perry could mold him into at least passable defense and you would get a 3-4 WAR-guy for doing so.

I admit it is far-fetched to see the organization spring for an elite left-handed guy instead of trying to do their find them and fix them routine. But I have not seen them be able to get premium performing lefties: Saucedo's 106 ERA+ was the only one with his head above water at all this year.
You have to go back to 2018 when Roenis Elias tossed a 154 ERA+, and James Pazos had a 142 to find a lefty having a good year in our pen. That is 6 years with out a lefty having a 125 ERA+ or better in the top dozen or so BP guys.

So, yes go get a good lefty AJ Minter, or find a lefty version of the Gregory Santos deal but get it done.

Oh, and Josh Rojas has a 27 FPS time on the year.