2024 Election.

[Seattle or Bust]

A very interesting poll just dropped:

The Selzer Poll of the Des Moines Register just posted Harris +3 as their final poll in Iowa.

The Selzer poll is considered the gold standard of state polls as the final poll has been within 1-2 points of the final results Iowa in the last 3 Presidential elections. Other polling done in Iowa was WELL off... mostly leaning toss up in 2012, and closer margins between Trump and Clinton/Biden in 2016 and 2020. Selzer was on record stating that the 2020 election would be a lot closer than polls were indicating. Selzer also pegged extremely close polling to actual results in gubernatorial and senate races over the years.

2020 President: R+7 (R+8)

2016 President: R+7 (R+9)

2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

The poll is drawing significant ire among GOP/MAGA talking heads who previously used the poll (+4 for Trump in September) as an indicator that he will perform well in the Rust Belt states. If this poll is indicative of Rust Belt trends in this election, it spells doom for Trump in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

I don't know if the poll will mean anything. But if Trump loses Iowa or it's even remotely close (within 5)... the trends point to very bad news for Trump.

[bpj]

I expect to see Kamala win with 90+ million votes.

The only thing I think is a certainty, regardless of who wins, is rioting and other nonsense afterwards.

Just hope it doesn't get too crazy out there.

[douche]

politics.png (611.3 KiB) Viewed 168 times

[XpertDBA]

I've heard SOB say repeatedly that lots of people on here HATE TRANS people. What basis or proof of that do you have? Any?

I believe 99.999999% of the people on here could give a rat's ass about trans people. If you want to destroy your body, mutilate your looks and change the pitch level of your voice when you're an adult, go do whatever you want. Nobody, and I mean nobody cares one iota.

Now when you start pushing your ideology on CHILDREN that don't know any better and put these crap ideas into their minds, that's a different story. Leave our fucking children alone.

And if you tell me I have to respect you and demand that I use your pronouns, go fuck yourself. If you look 99.99% like a man, I'm going to call you a HE/HIM and if you want to throw me in jail over it, go for it.

When you put males in female locker rooms or put them in a women's sporting event, I'm also going to say something. Is that HATE? No, that's love for real women which these fake "shemales" are compromising.

[D-train]

I've heard SOB say repeatedly that lots of people on here HATE TRANS people. What basis or proof of that do you have? Any?

I believe 99.999999% of the people on here could give a rat's ass about trans people. If you want to destroy your body, mutilate your looks and change the pitch level of your voice when you're an adult, go do whatever you want. Nobody, and I mean nobody cares one iota.

Now when you start pushing your ideology on CHILDREN that don't know any better and put these crap ideas into their minds, that's a different story. Leave our fucking children alone.

And if you tell me I have to respect you and demand that I use your pronouns, go fuck yourself. If you look 99.99% like a man, I'm going to call you a HE/HIM and if you want to throw me in jail over it, go for it.

When you put males in female locker rooms or put them in a women's sporting event, I'm also going to say something. Is that HATE? No, that's love for real women which these fake "shemales" are compromising.

The most insane thing nobody uses pronouns or gender when are talking to someone one on one and 95% of the time you use pronouns the subject of the pronoun isn't even present. Yet is is made to be so massive deal to the extent that normal men and woman are expected to put pronouns in their WORK email signatures.

[Captain 97]

A very interesting poll just dropped:

The Selzer Poll of the Des Moines Register just posted Harris +3 as their final poll in Iowa.

The Selzer poll is considered the gold standard of state polls as the final poll has been within 1-2 points of the final results Iowa in the last 3 Presidential elections. Other polling done in Iowa was WELL off... mostly leaning toss up in 2012, and closer margins between Trump and Clinton/Biden in 2016 and 2020. Selzer was on record stating that the 2020 election would be a lot closer than polls were indicating. Selzer also pegged extremely close polling to actual results in gubernatorial and senate races over the years.

2020 President: R+7 (R+8)

2016 President: R+7 (R+9)

2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

The poll is drawing significant ire among GOP/MAGA talking heads who previously used the poll (+4 for Trump in September) as an indicator that he will perform well in the Rust Belt states. If this poll is indicative of Rust Belt trends in this election, it spells doom for Trump in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

I don't know if the poll will mean anything. But if Trump loses Iowa or it's even remotely close (within 5)... the trends point to very bad news for Trump.

Really strange outlier, especially since Emerson released a poll on the same day showing Trump ahead by 10 points in Iowa. Don't know much about Selzer being a "gold standard". 538 has Emerson ranked ahead of Selzer based on Historical track record and methodological transparency.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[D-train]

Speaking of Gold Standard 538 is right up their right? Now gives Trump a 4 point lead in terms of who will win.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=rrpromo

[Walla Walla Dawg II]

I've heard SOB say repeatedly that lots of people on here HATE TRANS people. What basis or proof of that do you have? Any?

I believe 99.999999% of the people on here could give a rat's ass about trans people. If you want to destroy your body, mutilate your looks and change the pitch level of your voice when you're an adult, go do whatever you want. Nobody, and I mean nobody cares one iota.

Now when you start pushing your ideology on CHILDREN that don't know any better and put these crap ideas into their minds, that's a different story. Leave our fucking children alone.

And if you tell me I have to respect you and demand that I use your pronouns, go fuck yourself. If you look 99.99% like a man, I'm going to call you a HE/HIM and if you want to throw me in jail over it, go for it.

When you put males in female locker rooms or put them in a women's sporting event, I'm also going to say something. Is that HATE? No, that's love for real women which these fake "shemales" are compromising.

Beautifully said XpertDBA!!!

I wish you would have added that they can get gender reassignment surgery on their own nickel....not a tax payer funded process.
Nor should the federal or state government be paying for abortions of any level.

[Seattle or Bust]

I've heard SOB say repeatedly that lots of people on here HATE TRANS people. What basis or proof of that do you have? Any?

I believe 99.999999% of the people on here could give a rat's ass about trans people. If you want to destroy your body, mutilate your looks and change the pitch level of your voice when you're an adult, go do whatever you want. Nobody, and I mean nobody cares one iota.

Now when you start pushing your ideology on CHILDREN that don't know any better and put these crap ideas into their minds, that's a different story. Leave our fucking children alone.

And if you tell me I have to respect you and demand that I use your pronouns, go fuck yourself. If you look 99.99% like a man, I'm going to call you a HE/HIM and if you want to throw me in jail over it, go for it.

When you put males in female locker rooms or put them in a women's sporting event, I'm also going to say something. Is that HATE? No, that's love for real women which these fake "shemales" are compromising.

Ya, re-read your description of trans people in this post and tell me you don't hate them.

I'm glad the 1 in 1 million chance that a trans female plays against biological women in an athletic sport scares you so much that you're forced to think about it. Or that accidentally misgendering someone weighs so much on your mind that you feel compelled to share how you've rehearsed responding to it.

Manufactured BS.

[bpj]

Personally the only way I'd watch women's sports is if only men played in them.

Trannies misgender themselves. Lol at lecturing others about it.