How many Electoral College votes?

[Bil522]

How many electoral college votes will each candidate get? Closest to the pin wins bragging rights for the next 4 years.

Here is an Interactive Map that you can use to calculate what you think the vote totals will be. Contest closes at 4pm PST when the 1st count are reported.

https://www.270towin.com/

[Bil522]

My guess is

Trump 311

Harris 227


I picked New Jersey to flip and Michigan to go to Harris. All the rest of the battlegrounds go to Trump

[Captain 97]

I am going to say 291-247 in favor of Trump. I think Harris takes Nevada and Michigan. Trump takes Wisconsin Pennsylvania, N.C. Arizona and Georgia. I think Trump will take the popular vote by a smidge as well.

[D-train]

281. Same as Captain with Harris getting Wisconsin.

[Captain 97]

281. Same as Captain with Harris getting Wisconsin.

The polls in Wisconsin underestimated Trump by 7% and 6% in the last two elections. I think he takes Wisconsin fairly comfortably.

[D-train]

281. Same as Captain with Harris getting Wisconsin.

The polls in Wisconsin underestimated Trump by 7% and 6% in the last two elections. I think he takes Wisconsin fairly comfortably.

I am trying to not get too cocky and jinx it. lol

[mostonmike]

I am sticking with what I said in another thread. Democrat 270-268 Republican. It really does look that close.

[gil]

I'll be really surprised if the polls have underestimated Trump this much again. The pollsters have their reputations on the line, as well as their future income, so they have incentives to fix past mistakes in how they poll.

Nate Silver has noticed how there is what he calls "herding" among pollsters, with most agreeing that the 7 swing states are very close. He said that pollsters will sometimes self-censor a poll that is too far off the consensus. He expressed admiration for Ann Selzer (who he considers one of the 2 best pollsters in the business) coming out with the Harris ahead in Iowa by 3 points poll.

The New York Times has an article today that discusses 4 possible outcomes, including a Trump blowout and a Harris blowout. They argue that a shift of 2 percentage points in either direction is all that it would take.

My predictions:
1. Harris wins nation-wide popular vote by around 2.5 percent. (Less than Biden won by in 2020. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections - i.e., every year starting in 1992 with the exception of 2004).

2. Harris takes the "blue wall" of WI, MI, and PA, with the PA margin less than 0.5%. Harris takes Nevada with margin less than 0.5%. Trump wins Arizona by about 1%. Harris wins either North Carolina or Georgia, with a margin less than 0.5%.
Harris 292
Trump 246

[D-train]

I'll be really surprised if the polls have underestimated Trump this much again. The pollsters have their reputations on the line, as well as their future income, so they have incentives to fix past mistakes in how they poll.

Nate Silver has noticed how there is what he calls "herding" among pollsters, with most agreeing that the 7 swing states are very close. He said that pollsters will sometimes self-censor a poll that is too far off the consensus. He expressed admiration for Ann Selzer (who he considers one of the 2 best pollsters in the business) coming out with the Harris ahead in Iowa by 3 points poll.

The New York Times has an article today that discusses 4 possible outcomes, including a Trump blowout and a Harris blowout. They argue that a shift of 2 percentage points in either direction is all that it would take.

My predictions:
1. Harris wins nation-wide popular vote by around 2.5 percent. (Less than Biden won by in 2020. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections - i.e., every year starting in 1992 with the exception of 2004).

2. Harris takes the "blue wall" of WI, MI, and PA, with the PA margin less than 0.5%. Harris takes Nevada with margin less than 0.5%. Trump wins Arizona by about 1%. Harris wins either North Carolina or Georgia, with a margin less than 0.5%.
Harris 292
Trump 246

The polls have them tied. If they underestimate him at all he will win.

[Bil522]

Heck, if Trump takes everything that is still out there, and he is ahead in all 4, Trump will get 312 Electoral votes.