So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Seattle or Bust
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by Seattle or Bust » Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:31 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:15 pm
So the talking heads over at MLBTR made some predictions about where the top FA will land.

It's a split ticket, but a couple of the prognosticators have us landing Gleyber Torres, and couple have us landing Hyeseong Kim, and one lone pundit has us landing Bregman. :roll:

Read more about it here:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/ ... tions.html
They are not wrong. The M's aren't going to do much of anything in free agency.

They'll get out from Haniger's $$ with prospects and then move money around in trades to account for the existing holes. They could move Castillo and go with a less expensive 3/4 in the rotation.

As it sits, they're projected to be at $148 million with the current roster and they ended '24 at $148 million. They've said payroll will increase, but only marginally. I'll say when all is said and done the M's go into '25 at no more than $155 million on the books. You can't fill 1B, 2B, 3B with $7 million. You're not adding any big free agents either. You've got to move money.

Big_Maple
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by Big_Maple » Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:12 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:31 pm

They are not wrong. The M's aren't going to do much of anything in free agency.

They'll get out from Haniger's $$ with prospects and then move money around in trades to account for the existing holes. They could move Castillo and go with a less expensive 3/4 in the rotation.

As it sits, they're projected to be at $148 million with the current roster and they ended '24 at $148 million. They've said payroll will increase, but only marginally. I'll say when all is said and done the M's go into '25 at no more than $155 million on the books. You can't fill 1B, 2B, 3B with $7 million. You're not adding any big free agents either. You've got to move money.
I would not be upset with any of these moves. But I don't see most of them as working.

Here's how I see it:

Colt Emerson is the heir apparent at SS. He will burst onto the scene in 2026 as JP's tenure with the M's is drawing to a close. That's assuming he doesn't flame out in the minors before then. So we don't need to go out and do something stupid like sign Kim or Willy Adames to some insanely long or insanely expensive contract at SS.

We desperately need a solid 2B. Again, we've got Cole Young who will likely be stepping up in 2025. What he need is a short term option at 2B until Young makes it to the bigs. Torres is going to want 3-4 years, and Kim is unlikely to take a 1 or even 2 year deal. So unless ownership knows something that we don't, they likely should have stuck with Polanco for a year. But they let the door hit him on the ass on the way out, so they are likely going to have to get someone through trade at 2B.

That's leaves 3B and 1B. I would be giddy if they decided to go all in on Bregman. But that doesn't seem like their style. But who knows? The last big contract they offered in free agency is pitching for the Giants now. JP's only got 2 more years left. That leaves JRod and Castillo as the long term, big money commitments. Maybe they are looking at the big picture rather than just the next year or so. As you say, SoB, maybe they can move the last year of Haniger, and maybe Castillo would agree to a trade to a more competitive team (like the Red Sox or Dodgers). That's frees up capital to go after Bregman, a 3/4 pitcher, and a decent 1B with Bregman being the marquis acquisition.

Question: would anyone take Carlos Santana on a 2-3 year deal? The dude still has pop (23 homers), and he just won a gold glove at 1B for crying out loud. He's league average in OPS and OPS+, but compared to the codswhallop we've trotted out...

Seattle or Bust
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by Seattle or Bust » Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:03 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:12 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:31 pm

They are not wrong. The M's aren't going to do much of anything in free agency.

They'll get out from Haniger's $$ with prospects and then move money around in trades to account for the existing holes. They could move Castillo and go with a less expensive 3/4 in the rotation.

As it sits, they're projected to be at $148 million with the current roster and they ended '24 at $148 million. They've said payroll will increase, but only marginally. I'll say when all is said and done the M's go into '25 at no more than $155 million on the books. You can't fill 1B, 2B, 3B with $7 million. You're not adding any big free agents either. You've got to move money.
I would not be upset with any of these moves. But I don't see most of them as working.

Here's how I see it:

Colt Emerson is the heir apparent at SS. He will burst onto the scene in 2026 as JP's tenure with the M's is drawing to a close. That's assuming he doesn't flame out in the minors before then. So we don't need to go out and do something stupid like sign Kim or Willy Adames to some insanely long or insanely expensive contract at SS.

We desperately need a solid 2B. Again, we've got Cole Young who will likely be stepping up in 2025. What he need is a short term option at 2B until Young makes it to the bigs. Torres is going to want 3-4 years, and Kim is unlikely to take a 1 or even 2 year deal. So unless ownership knows something that we don't, they likely should have stuck with Polanco for a year. But they let the door hit him on the ass on the way out, so they are likely going to have to get someone through trade at 2B.

That's leaves 3B and 1B. I would be giddy if they decided to go all in on Bregman. But that doesn't seem like their style. But who knows? The last big contract they offered in free agency is pitching for the Giants now. JP's only got 2 more years left. That leaves JRod and Castillo as the long term, big money commitments. Maybe they are looking at the big picture rather than just the next year or so. As you say, SoB, maybe they can move the last year of Haniger, and maybe Castillo would agree to a trade to a more competitive team (like the Red Sox or Dodgers). That's frees up capital to go after Bregman, a 3/4 pitcher, and a decent 1B with Bregman being the marquis acquisition.

Question: would anyone take Carlos Santana on a 2-3 year deal? The dude still has pop (23 homers), and he just won a gold glove at 1B for crying out loud. He's league average in OPS and OPS+, but compared to the codswhallop we've trotted out...
That's why Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Alec Bohm have to be compelling. They're all controlled for just one season. Diaz and Lowe have options for '26 if they perform well.
Last edited by Seattle or Bust on Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Big_Maple
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by Big_Maple » Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:07 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:03 pm

That's why Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Alec Bohm have to be compelling. They're all controlled for just one season. Diaz and Lowe have options for '26 if they perform well.

Get rid of Haniger... trade Castillo... add a pitcher like Erik Fedde... add a couple of these guys and that's the offseason.
Plus Bregman and Santana?

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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by Seattle or Bust » Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:10 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:07 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:03 pm

That's why Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Alec Bohm have to be compelling. They're all controlled for just one season. Diaz and Lowe have options for '26 if they perform well.

Get rid of Haniger... trade Castillo... add a pitcher like Erik Fedde... add a couple of these guys and that's the offseason.
Plus Bregman and Santana?
Haniger: -$15M total.
Castillo: -$24M total.
$29M total.

Diaz: +$10M total.
Lowe: +$10.5M total.
Bohm: +$8M total.
Fedde: +$8M total.
$36.5M total.

There's your $7 million increase to $155 million :lol:

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D-train
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by D-train » Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:45 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:12 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:31 pm

They are not wrong. The M's aren't going to do much of anything in free agency.

They'll get out from Haniger's $$ with prospects and then move money around in trades to account for the existing holes. They could move Castillo and go with a less expensive 3/4 in the rotation.

As it sits, they're projected to be at $148 million with the current roster and they ended '24 at $148 million. They've said payroll will increase, but only marginally. I'll say when all is said and done the M's go into '25 at no more than $155 million on the books. You can't fill 1B, 2B, 3B with $7 million. You're not adding any big free agents either. You've got to move money.
I would not be upset with any of these moves. But I don't see most of them as working.

Here's how I see it:

Colt Emerson is the heir apparent at SS. He will burst onto the scene in 2026 as JP's tenure with the M's is drawing to a close. That's assuming he doesn't flame out in the minors before then. So we don't need to go out and do something stupid like sign Kim or Willy Adames to some insanely long or insanely expensive contract at SS.

We desperately need a solid 2B. Again, we've got Cole Young who will likely be stepping up in 2025. What he need is a short term option at 2B until Young makes it to the bigs. Torres is going to want 3-4 years, and Kim is unlikely to take a 1 or even 2 year deal. So unless ownership knows something that we don't, they likely should have stuck with Polanco for a year. But they let the door hit him on the ass on the way out, so they are likely going to have to get someone through trade at 2B.

That's leaves 3B and 1B. I would be giddy if they decided to go all in on Bregman. But that doesn't seem like their style. But who knows? The last big contract they offered in free agency is pitching for the Giants now. JP's only got 2 more years left. That leaves JRod and Castillo as the long term, big money commitments. Maybe they are looking at the big picture rather than just the next year or so. As you say, SoB, maybe they can move the last year of Haniger, and maybe Castillo would agree to a trade to a more competitive team (like the Red Sox or Dodgers). That's frees up capital to go after Bregman, a 3/4 pitcher, and a decent 1B with Bregman being the marquis acquisition.

Question: would anyone take Carlos Santana on a 2-3 year deal? The dude still has pop (23 homers), and he just won a gold glove at 1B for crying out loud. He's league average in OPS and OPS+, but compared to the codswhallop we've trotted out...
Speak of the Devil. Shut down again due to injury. Finishes with ZERO HRs in the AFL and finishes 2024 with about 1 HR every 100 PAs.
dt

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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by GL_Storm » Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:19 pm

I think they will do very little this offseason. Maybe they'll move Haniger, but I kind of doubt it unless they eat most of the salary, and I don't think they want to do that. Maybe they can move him in a package deal but I don't think they have a prospect they're willing to move that will offset a major portion of that salary.

As a movable salary, I think Garver would make more sense because he can actually play a position and because it isn't as much money. I just think that would be an easier sell.

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D-train
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by D-train » Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:04 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:03 pm
Big_Maple wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:12 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:31 pm

They are not wrong. The M's aren't going to do much of anything in free agency.

They'll get out from Haniger's $$ with prospects and then move money around in trades to account for the existing holes. They could move Castillo and go with a less expensive 3/4 in the rotation.

As it sits, they're projected to be at $148 million with the current roster and they ended '24 at $148 million. They've said payroll will increase, but only marginally. I'll say when all is said and done the M's go into '25 at no more than $155 million on the books. You can't fill 1B, 2B, 3B with $7 million. You're not adding any big free agents either. You've got to move money.
I would not be upset with any of these moves. But I don't see most of them as working.

Here's how I see it:

Colt Emerson is the heir apparent at SS. He will burst onto the scene in 2026 as JP's tenure with the M's is drawing to a close. That's assuming he doesn't flame out in the minors before then. So we don't need to go out and do something stupid like sign Kim or Willy Adames to some insanely long or insanely expensive contract at SS.

We desperately need a solid 2B. Again, we've got Cole Young who will likely be stepping up in 2025. What he need is a short term option at 2B until Young makes it to the bigs. Torres is going to want 3-4 years, and Kim is unlikely to take a 1 or even 2 year deal. So unless ownership knows something that we don't, they likely should have stuck with Polanco for a year. But they let the door hit him on the ass on the way out, so they are likely going to have to get someone through trade at 2B.

That's leaves 3B and 1B. I would be giddy if they decided to go all in on Bregman. But that doesn't seem like their style. But who knows? The last big contract they offered in free agency is pitching for the Giants now. JP's only got 2 more years left. That leaves JRod and Castillo as the long term, big money commitments. Maybe they are looking at the big picture rather than just the next year or so. As you say, SoB, maybe they can move the last year of Haniger, and maybe Castillo would agree to a trade to a more competitive team (like the Red Sox or Dodgers). That's frees up capital to go after Bregman, a 3/4 pitcher, and a decent 1B with Bregman being the marquis acquisition.

Question: would anyone take Carlos Santana on a 2-3 year deal? The dude still has pop (23 homers), and he just won a gold glove at 1B for crying out loud. He's league average in OPS and OPS+, but compared to the codswhallop we've trotted out...
That's why Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Alec Bohm have to be compelling. They're all controlled for just one season. Diaz and Lowe have options for '26 if they perform well.
Bohm isn't an FA until 2026. They got lucky has hell to dump Marco and White. Also a miracle that the Braves were able to flip them. Odds of that serendipity repeating is slim to none. I bet Haniger will be on the OD roster because Jerry won't want to part with the top prospect needed to dump him and Stanton won't want to eat his salary.
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by Donn Beach » Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:33 pm

salary arbitration, here's a projected list
Sam Haggerty - $900K
Gabe Speier - $900K
Tayler Saucedo - $1M
JT Chargois - $1.7M
Trenton Thorton - $2.1M
Austin Voth - $2.2M
Josh Rojas - $4.3M
Luis Urias - $5M
George Kirby - $5.5M
Cal Raleigh - $5.6M
Logan Gilbert - $8.1M
Randy Arozarena - $11.7M

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D-train
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Re: So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

Post by D-train » Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:05 am

Donn Beach wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:33 pm
salary arbitration, here's a projected list
Sam Haggerty - $900K
Gabe Speier - $900K
Tayler Saucedo - $1M
JT Chargois - $1.7M
Trenton Thorton - $2.1M
Austin Voth - $2.2M
Josh Rojas - $4.3M
Luis Urias - $5M
George Kirby - $5.5M
Cal Raleigh - $5.6M
Logan Gilbert - $8.1M
Randy Arozarena - $11.7M
Another reason I want to trade Randy for an INFer
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