Playoffs

[douche]

I believe they will prevail over the Jets. That said, I sure hope they don't take the day off or look past it. New York is a mess, sure, but the Jets players may decide to ramp it up in spite of all the chaos that's been happening within their organization. And SEA can't let them do that.

ESPN expert picks this week...

picks.png (5.5 KiB) Viewed 188 times

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Obviously not closely but I appreciated what they were attempting to do as opposed to PFF. PFF is qualitative, it's based on opinion. It's someone giving an opinion that's given a numerical ranking. Football outsiders on the other hand was quantitative. It's analysis was based on statistics not observation, it was analytics

It is impossible to quantify O Line and D line play.

Attempts have been made...

ADJUSTED LINE YARDS (ALY) EXPLAINED
One of the most difficult goals of statistical analysis in football is isolating the degree to which each of the 22 men on the field is responsible for the result of a given play. Nowhere is this as significant as the running game, in which one player runs while up to nine other players—including not just linemen but also wideouts and tight ends—block in different directions. None of the statistics we use for measuring rushing—yards, touchdowns, yards per carry—differentiate between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line. Neither do our advanced metrics DVOA and DYAR.

We do, however, have enough play-by-play data amassed that we can try to separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effects of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the opposing defense. A team might have two running backs in its stable: RB A, who averages 3.0 yards per carry, and RB B, who averages 3.5 yards per carry. Who is the better back? Imagine that RB A doesn’t just average 3.0 yards per carry, but gets exactly 3 yards on every single carry, while RB B has a highly variable yardage output: sometimes 5 yards, sometimes minus-2 yards, sometimes 20 yards. The difference in variability between the runners can be exploited not only to determine the difference between the runners, but the effect the offensive line has on every running play.

At some point in every long running play, the running back passes all of his offensive line blocks as well as additional blocking backs or receivers. From there on, the rest of the play is dependent on the runner’s own speed and elusiveness and the speed and tackling ability of the opposing defense. If Nick Chubb breaks through the line for 50 yards, avoiding tacklers all the way to the goal line, his offensive line has done a great job—but they aren’t responsible for the majority of the yards gained. The trick is figuring out exactly how much they are responsible for.

For each running back carry, we calculated the probability that the back involved would run for the specific yardage on that play based on that back’s average yardage per carry and the variability of their yardage from play to play. We also calculated the probability that the offense would get the yardage based on the team’s rushing average and variability using all backs other than the one involved in the given play, and the probability that the defense would give up the specific amount of yardage based on its average rushing yards allowed per carry and variability.

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-explainer
(You have to scroll way down the page to get to that part)

[Michael K.]

I believe they will prevail over the Jets. That said, I sure hope they don't take the day off or look past it. New York is a mess, sure, but the Jets players may decide to ramp it up in spite of all the chaos that's been happening within their organization. And SEA can't let them do that.

ESPN expert picks this week...


picks.png

This is honestly a bad time to get the Jets. They have nothing to lose, and we are coming off two big wins. I have this fear that we get last weeks offense and we leave Rodgers just enough time, and bus smug ass beats us!

[D-train]

Obviously not closely but I appreciated what they were attempting to do as opposed to PFF. PFF is qualitative, it's based on opinion. It's someone giving an opinion that's given a numerical ranking. Football outsiders on the other hand was quantitative. It's analysis was based on statistics not observation, it was analytics

It is impossible to quantify O Line and D line play.

Attempts have been made...

ADJUSTED LINE YARDS (ALY) EXPLAINED
One of the most difficult goals of statistical analysis in football is isolating the degree to which each of the 22 men on the field is responsible for the result of a given play. Nowhere is this as significant as the running game, in which one player runs while up to nine other players—including not just linemen but also wideouts and tight ends—block in different directions. None of the statistics we use for measuring rushing—yards, touchdowns, yards per carry—differentiate between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line. Neither do our advanced metrics DVOA and DYAR.

We do, however, have enough play-by-play data amassed that we can try to separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effects of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the opposing defense. A team might have two running backs in its stable: RB A, who averages 3.0 yards per carry, and RB B, who averages 3.5 yards per carry. Who is the better back? Imagine that RB A doesn’t just average 3.0 yards per carry, but gets exactly 3 yards on every single carry, while RB B has a highly variable yardage output: sometimes 5 yards, sometimes minus-2 yards, sometimes 20 yards. The difference in variability between the runners can be exploited not only to determine the difference between the runners, but the effect the offensive line has on every running play.

At some point in every long running play, the running back passes all of his offensive line blocks as well as additional blocking backs or receivers. From there on, the rest of the play is dependent on the runner’s own speed and elusiveness and the speed and tackling ability of the opposing defense. If Nick Chubb breaks through the line for 50 yards, avoiding tacklers all the way to the goal line, his offensive line has done a great job—but they aren’t responsible for the majority of the yards gained. The trick is figuring out exactly how much they are responsible for.

For each running back carry, we calculated the probability that the back involved would run for the specific yardage on that play based on that back’s average yardage per carry and the variability of their yardage from play to play. We also calculated the probability that the offense would get the yardage based on the team’s rushing average and variability using all backs other than the one involved in the given play, and the probability that the defense would give up the specific amount of yardage based on its average rushing yards allowed per carry and variability.

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-explainer
(You have to scroll way down the page to get to that part)

I didn't say that well. I meant you can't just use numbers. I have to watch plays of individual guys and then try to quantify them into numbers.

[Donn Beach]

I've posted about this before, NFL next generation stats is using imbedded sensors for their data, that with the application of AI analysis is going to make the PFF visual observation model a dinosaur. It's the same sort of thing that's happening in MLB with statcast. Both systems can generate massive amounts of data. And as Elon would tell you, data is the key

[Sibelius Hindemith]

I was looking at that a while ago. I?'m not sure how they'll be able to measure anything of use with regard to linemen.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

[Donn Beach]

They are doing it, the data is being collected, comes down to developing ways to analyse it

ESPN Analytics created revolutionary new metrics to measure performance in the trenches -- in both the run and pass game -- using player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats.

Our pass rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Likewise, our pass block win rate metric conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/383 ... yers-teams

[douche]

This is honestly a bad time to get the Jets. They have nothing to lose, and we are coming off two big wins.

Agreed. Lets hope that Macdonald has his troops ready and that the dumpster fire in NY continues.

[Donn Beach]

A trap game implies the Seahawks looking past the jets. The Seahawks aren't in position to look past anyone at this point. They've already had their trap game this season with the Giants. Honestly at this point if MM allows the Seahawks to play down to the jets I am questioning his ability to coach a football team

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Should be a low-scoring affair. The Jets have one of the best run-stopping D lines so expect another day similar to last week where they can't move the ball on the ground until late in the game if at all.