Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Dec 13, 2024 4:24 pm

What's up with bpj suddenly promoting a slap hitter anyway. I'm smelling a rat. Think you should check the credentials of that profile.

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D-train
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by D-train » Fri Dec 13, 2024 6:43 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 4:24 pm
What's up with bpj suddenly promoting a slap hitter anyway. I'm smelling a rat. Think you should check the credentials of that profile.
We need to ask him a question that only he would know the Answer to!
dt

GL_Storm
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:31 pm

bpj wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 11:19 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 4:01 am
bpj wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 3:21 am


He's essentially a bat-first 2B that gets hits and doesn't K. Exactly what we need. He's Ichiro without taking up a power position.

Even in 2024 he played 2B until he got traded to the Padres where they already had Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, and Ha-Seong Kim in the infield but wanted his bat in their lineup and were weak at 1B.

And in 2023 he played all but 12 games at 2B.

We have plenty of guys that can be late inning defensive replacements. Let's worry about getting the lead first.
I'd make the trade. He's got a pretty decent salary so it probably wouldn't cost that much in prospects. And if he can't play second the bat is still useful at DH, 1B or whatever, which isn't ideal but it's just the one year.

But my gut instinct is that they want Nico Hoerner. I think he's their first choice and if that doesn't work out then maybe they look to San Diego and Arraez. Probably though, Corbin Burnes has to sign first and then I think we could see Castillo traded very quickly thereafter and maybe several deals will go down within a few days of each other. They'll probably try to package Haniger or Garver with Castillo in some form or fashion.
I wish I could understand why. Are they after defense again? The only stat he's really better in is WAR, so it's probably defense related. Barfbags.

Arraez and Hoerner will both be 28 years old and Lowe will be 31. Their numbers since 2022-
Hoerner is a more well-rounded player that can do more for you, and while he isn't a great hitter, he isn't bad, and he has two years of control left.

I'm mostly onboard with this line of reasoning. I think I posted something to that effect in one of the other threads, that after years of pursuing offense-first players and watching them fail in this ballpark, maybe shift the focus to players with broader baseball skillsets. However, I would probably still take the chance on Arraez, even though he is more limited, just because the hit tool is so strong.

tehmc
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by tehmc » Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:53 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:31 pm
bpj wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 11:19 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 4:01 am


I'd make the trade. He's got a pretty decent salary so it probably wouldn't cost that much in prospects. And if he can't play second the bat is still useful at DH, 1B or whatever, which isn't ideal but it's just the one year.

But my gut instinct is that they want Nico Hoerner. I think he's their first choice and if that doesn't work out then maybe they look to San Diego and Arraez. Probably though, Corbin Burnes has to sign first and then I think we could see Castillo traded very quickly thereafter and maybe several deals will go down within a few days of each other. They'll probably try to package Haniger or Garver with Castillo in some form or fashion.
I wish I could understand why. Are they after defense again? The only stat he's really better in is WAR, so it's probably defense related. Barfbags.

Arraez and Hoerner will both be 28 years old and Lowe will be 31. Their numbers since 2022-
Hoerner is a more well-rounded player that can do more for you, and while he isn't a great hitter, he isn't bad, and he has two years of control left.

I'm mostly onboard with this line of reasoning. I think I posted something to that effect in one of the other threads, that after years of pursuing offense-first players and watching them fail in this ballpark, maybe shift the focus to players with broader baseball skillsets. However, I would probably still take the chance on Arraez, even though he is more limited, just because the hit tool is so strong.
Cubs just traded Parades to Houston for Kyle Tucker which means a trade for Hoerner is probably off the table now. However that might make Seiya Suzuki more available.

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D-train
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by D-train » Fri Dec 13, 2024 8:15 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 7:31 pm
bpj wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 11:19 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 4:01 am


I'd make the trade. He's got a pretty decent salary so it probably wouldn't cost that much in prospects. And if he can't play second the bat is still useful at DH, 1B or whatever, which isn't ideal but it's just the one year.

But my gut instinct is that they want Nico Hoerner. I think he's their first choice and if that doesn't work out then maybe they look to San Diego and Arraez. Probably though, Corbin Burnes has to sign first and then I think we could see Castillo traded very quickly thereafter and maybe several deals will go down within a few days of each other. They'll probably try to package Haniger or Garver with Castillo in some form or fashion.
I wish I could understand why. Are they after defense again? The only stat he's really better in is WAR, so it's probably defense related. Barfbags.

Arraez and Hoerner will both be 28 years old and Lowe will be 31. Their numbers since 2022-
Hoerner is a more well-rounded player that can do more for you, and while he isn't a great hitter, he isn't bad, and he has two years of control left.

I'm mostly onboard with this line of reasoning. I think I posted something to that effect in one of the other threads, that after years of pursuing offense-first players and watching them fail in this ballpark, maybe shift the focus to players with broader baseball skillsets. However, I would probably still take the chance on Arraez, even though he is more limited, just because the hit tool is so strong.
Now there is a guy set for a bounce back season.
dt

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bpj
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by bpj » Fri Dec 13, 2024 9:37 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2024 4:24 pm
What's up with bpj suddenly promoting a slap hitter anyway. I'm smelling a rat. Think you should check the credentials of that profile.
I never had a problem with Ichiro if he would have played 2B or CF.

If Arraez has to be a 1B, he wouldn't be worth going after because you could easily find a 1B with a better OPS. Same reason Ichiro wasn't good enough for RF after his first few years. Other RF's could put up better OPS without breaking a sweat.

And either way, Arraez has a significantly better OPS than Hoerner over the past few years. He's not the weak one.

There aren't many better 2B available, and we need a leadoff hitter because Julio, JP, and even Robles aren't best suited to do it.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by Donn Beach » Sat Dec 14, 2024 1:03 am

My issue is the defense, ichiro wàs a light hitter but he also had a heck of a glove. I've seen Arraez referred to as the worst second baseman in baseball. I don't know enough about him to have an opinion but it concerns me. I'd rather go with a heavy hitter with questionable defense than a light hitter. And for $14 mil, makes me nervous.

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bpj
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by bpj » Sat Dec 14, 2024 2:20 am

Donn Beach wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2024 1:03 am
My issue is the defense, ichiro wàs a light hitter but he also had a heck of a glove. I've seen Arraez referred to as the worst second baseman in baseball. I don't know enough about him to have an opinion but it concerns me. I'd rather go with a heavy hitter with questionable defense than a light hitter. And for $14 mil, makes me nervous.
Ichiro couldn't survive in RF without the defense because his bat didn't carry him there. Even with his defense he was in the way of a better bat.

You guys are acting like Arraez is a weak bat, but he has the 3rd highest OPS among qualified 2B since 2022.

That's why I don't care- at all- about his defense. Defense shmefense.
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Pharmabro
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by Pharmabro » Sun Dec 15, 2024 4:36 am

I have recently pivoted a possible alteration to my 1B-2B-3B improvements. The Padres have been looking to dump Cease and Luis Arreaz.

There are few 3B options and if we did this: Trade for Luiz A 3B, trade for Lowe 2B, sign Christian Walker.
Walker 3 for 60M 15, 20, 25M
In his last year of control Luiz is slotted for 14.6M
Lowe is at 10.5

But that is 40M added Jude said they only had about 16M,

Pack Haniger's 17.5M pay 5M and send him off with Tyler Locklear to the White Sox.

Pack up L. Castillo and do a three way with Boston, and the Rays Boston gets Castillo, Seattle gets Lowe, TB gets Boston's prospects #8 Sandlin RHP(5.3M MLBTC), #12 Romero (4.2M,) Seattle prospects to TB #13 M Morales RHP 2.1M, #14 RHP Teddy McGraw 2.7M

Castillo is at 22.5M vs Lowe @ 10.5 that is 12M saved (Sign Sasaki!)

Luis A 4.9M trade calc., for Ben Williamson 3B (7M)

There you go 40M added -24.5M in salary reduction = 15.5 M in net added salaries.

Is it perfect? No.

It is not even my ideal plan. But it is an improvement on not only what we had going into last season but an upgrade over what we had at the end of last year as well.

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Donn Beach
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Re: Based on Jerry's words, name the M's 1B, 2B, 3B next year.

Post by Donn Beach » Sun Dec 15, 2024 1:46 pm

Here's a topical fangraphs article titled, The Myth of Luis Arreaz. They use RE24 to argue he's basically an average hitter. The argument that singles or average aren't that valuable. It's Looking at last season, hIs doubles were reduced. I don't think TMobile be that kind to him. I understood it's where doubles go to die.

There's something else buried in it I found interesting. He argues Arreasz is a mediocre leadoff hitter. That it be better to hit him 3rd. That a single with the bases empty isn't really very valuable. It be more more valuable delivering singles with men on base. Takes me back to the deal about hitting ichiro 3rd, how everyone thought that was nuts.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-myth-of-luis-arraez/

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