2025 Prospects Thread

[D-train]

They're not full of shit, dt. Evaluating young talent is all about projection. Why don't you think Colt Emerson will grow into more power? Every fucking scout believes he will.

btw, Emerson was absolutely crushing the ball in the AFL

Because I have a brain which I use for more than parroting what others say. If he adjusts his swing to generate more loft it likely hurts his BA/OBP.

I was right about JK and Harry and all the experts were wrong weren't they.

Harry looks like a very good bet to be a quality major leaguer.

He is a good bet to be a quality BU catcher that can even pinch run. Even the experts have come to their senses and kicked him out of the top 100.

[GL_Storm]

Because I have a brain which I use for more than parroting what others say. If he adjusts his swing to generate more loft it likely hurts his BA/OBP.

I was right about JK and Harry and all the experts were wrong weren't they.

Harry looks like a very good bet to be a quality major leaguer.

He is a good bet to be a quality BU catcher that can even pinch run. Even the experts have come to their senses and kicked him out of the top 100.

He's still in Baseball America's Top 100. He's fallen in the rankings because of his home park and because the rankings tend to be biased towards players at lower levels. I think he'll turn out to be a good pick at #12 overall, but time will tell. The 2021 draft, so far, looks like a pretty good one.

[D-train]

Harry looks like a very good bet to be a quality major leaguer.

He is a good bet to be a quality BU catcher that can even pinch run. Even the experts have come to their senses and kicked him out of the top 100.

He's still in Baseball America's Top 100. He's fallen in the rankings because of his home park and because the rankings tend to be biased towards players at lower levels. I think he'll turn out to be a good pick at #12 overall, but time will tell. The 2021 draft, so far, looks like a pretty good one.

So you and I are aware of his home park but the experts have no idea? Locklear had a .933 OPS in that park.

[DavidGee24]

They're not full of shit, dt. Evaluating young talent is all about projection. Why don't you think Colt Emerson will grow into more power? Every fucking scout believes he will.

btw, Emerson was absolutely crushing the ball in the AFL

Because I have a brain which I use for more than parroting what others say. If he adjusts his swing to generate more loft it likely hurts his BA/OBP.

I was right about JK and Harry and all the experts were wrong weren't they.

Always remember one's Moneyball, "If he's such a good hitter, then why doesn't he hit good?" All the projections on Kelenic yet he put up on OPS of .908 in the minors which says "likely future major leaguer" but not "future All-Star". Right now Emerson's future is looking more Spike Owenish than anything. Hopefully that changes next season.

[GL_Storm]

He is a good bet to be a quality BU catcher that can even pinch run. Even the experts have come to their senses and kicked him out of the top 100.

He's still in Baseball America's Top 100. He's fallen in the rankings because of his home park and because the rankings tend to be biased towards players at lower levels. I think he'll turn out to be a good pick at #12 overall, but time will tell. The 2021 draft, so far, looks like a pretty good one.

So you and I are aware of his home park but the experts have no idea? Locklear had a .933 OPS in that park.

Which shows how power numbers in the minor leagues can fool you. Locklear is incredibly strong and has an all or nothing swing. It's likely he's a dead pull hitter, which is how Dicky Stephens plays for power. It's also interesting that his power numbers, while still good, actually declined in the PCL (a better hitting environment) over a larger sample size, which suggest to me that the AA pitchers would have likely adjusted to him in the second half of the season if he hadn't gotten promoted. And of course he was totally exposed in the majors. I'll be interested to see if Locklear comes into spring training with a new swing. He's still got a chance.

Harry Ford is a completely different type of hitter. He's much more selective and hits to all fields. He was also one of the youngest players in the league. He didn't dominate, but that's actually normal for a younger player hitting in AA for the first time. The pitchers at that level are getting pretty serious. They've all got experience, stuff, and command.

There's risk with all of these players, but Harry Ford ticks a lot of the boxes that you're looking for in a prospect. The power declined at AA, but we know he has elite bat speed, which is where power comes from, so it doesn't make sense to write him off there quite yet. There are questions about the defense. BA says he sort of sucks but MLB Pipeline and Eric Longenhagen both seem to like him and say nice things. Objectively, his passed ball numbers have gone way down, which is a good sign.

I'm just sort of guessing here, but I think it's likely that the difference between Locklear and Ford at this point is that Locklear has more of an ability to pounce on mistakes. It's also kind of interesting that Locklear hit most of his minor league home runs at Dickey Stephens and Cheney, both of which are more pitcher friendly parks, where pitchers were probably more willing to give the hitter something to hit.

[D-train]

He's still in Baseball America's Top 100. He's fallen in the rankings because of his home park and because the rankings tend to be biased towards players at lower levels. I think he'll turn out to be a good pick at #12 overall, but time will tell. The 2021 draft, so far, looks like a pretty good one.

So you and I are aware of his home park but the experts have no idea? Locklear had a .933 OPS in that park.

Which shows how power numbers in the minor leagues can fool you. Locklear is incredibly strong and has an all or nothing swing. It's likely he's a dead pull hitter, which is how Dicky Stephens plays for power. It's also interesting that his power numbers, while still good, actually declined in the PCL (a better hitting environment) over a larger sample size, which suggest to me that the AA pitchers would have likely adjusted to him in the second half of the season if he hadn't gotten promoted. And of course he was totally exposed in the majors. I'll be interested to see if Locklear comes into spring training with a new swing. He's still got a chance.

Harry Ford is a completely different type of hitter. He's much more selective and hits to all fields. He was also one of the youngest players in the league. He didn't dominate, but that's actually normal for a younger player hitting in AA for the first time. The pitchers at that level are getting pretty serious. They've all got experience, stuff, and command.

There's risk with all of these players, but Harry Ford ticks a lot of the boxes that you're looking for in a prospect. The power declined at AA, but we know he has elite bat speed, which is where power comes from, so it doesn't make sense to write him off there quite yet. There are questions about the defense. BA says he sort of sucks but MLB Pipeline and Eric Longenhagen both seem to like him and say nice things. Objectively, his passed ball numbers have gone way down, which is a good sign.

I'm just sort of guessing here, but I think it's likely that the difference between Locklear and Ford at this point is that Locklear has more of an ability to pounce on mistakes. It's also kind of interesting that Locklear hit most of his minor league home runs at Dickey Stephens and Cheney, both of which are more pitcher friendly parks, where pitchers were probably more willing to give the hitter something to hit.

You totally nailed Locklear so I will be fascinated to see if you nail Harry as well.

[Vogelbomb]

Because I have a brain which I use for more than parroting what others say. If he adjusts his swing to generate more loft it likely hurts his BA/OBP.

I was right about JK and Harry and all the experts were wrong weren't they.

How have you been right about Harry? He's going to absolutely crush in AAA and you know it.

Colt doesn't need to adjust his swing for more power. The MLB arms throw harder, which means he'll ramp up his swing speed and more swing speed + more velocity = more exit velocity. Not too mention the weight behind the ball as he grows into his frame, he's going to add 20-30 lbs.

[Vogelbomb]

So you and I are aware of his home park but the experts have no idea? Locklear had a .933 OPS in that park.

yeah, and yet you've written Locklear completely off b.c of 50 MLB PAs? lmao. You and your cherry-picking of stats to suit you. So a couple dudes tear it up down in ARK and you think everyone should. One year is different than another. Pitchers faced matters, too.

[Donn Beach]

I think it's less likely he develops into a Biggio kind of player, that was a reach but he still looks to me as a possible Russell Martin type of player. Russell Martin's minor league slash 281/ .391/ .419 ./.810, Harry Ford's 261/ .404/ .419/ .822. I believe they have similar types of tools. That to me seems like a reasonable ceiling which I'd be happy with

[D-train]

Because I have a brain which I use for more than parroting what others say. If he adjusts his swing to generate more loft it likely hurts his BA/OBP.

I was right about JK and Harry and all the experts were wrong weren't they.

How have you been right about Harry? He's going to absolutely crush in AAA and you know it.

Colt doesn't need to adjust his swing for more power. The MLB arms throw harder, which means he'll ramp up his swing speed and more swing speed + more velocity = more exit velocity. Not too mention the weight behind the ball as he grows into his frame, he's going to add 20-30 lbs.

fyi he gained 20lbs this last off season but didn't like it so lost it all during the season.

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