2025 Prospects Thread
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
156 days until draft
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
This article is by Keith Law of the Athletic. It actually came out Wednesday. I know some of you think Law is not a good judge of talent but he goes to games and watches the players whereas some who are posted here do not. I think it goes a little bit deeper than just the top 10. Besides it helps pass the time waiting for spring training 
The Mariners have the best farm system in baseball, and if you really want to know why, it’s because they have the best top 10 in baseball. They probably have nine players in the top 125, most of whom have some kind of star or elite ceiling, and then it dwindles a little bit after their No. 11 prospect — although there are still a few athletes down there who might need some more time to cook. The value of their top nine or 10 or 11, depending on where you want to put the dividing line, is so high that I put them at the No. 1 spot even over a couple of systems that look a little deeper.
(Note: Tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale; ages as of July 1, 2025.)
1. Colt Emerson, SS (No. 5 on the top 100)
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
If Emerson had stayed healthy all year, he would have been close to the very top of this list, just based on how good he looked and how well he performed when he was able to take the field. The 22nd pick in 2023, Emerson went to Low A to start last year as an 18-year-old — his birthday is in late July — and hit .293/.440/.427 in 40 games, walking more than he struck out. The Mariners bumped him up to High A in early August, and he hit .225/.331/.317 in 29 games there — but still made plenty of contact — and then hit .370/.436/.537 as one of the youngest players in the Arizona Fall League. The bad news is that he played a total of 83 games between the regular season and the AFL, hitting the IL in April with an oblique strain, breaking a bone in his foot by fouling a ball off it in mid-May, and then leaving Arizona in early November after straining a hamstring.
He’s played about 80 percent of his pro innings at shortstop and has shown the range and instincts to stay there, even though he’s just an average runner; if his propensity to get hurt continues as he matures, he may be better served moving to third or second, but he’s so much more valuable at short that he’ll probably stay there at least through the high minors. He has all of the ingredients to be a hitter for a high average and OBP, with a short path to the ball, excellent bat speed and a strong approach for his age. He might only lack the power to get to the upper echelons of MLB position players, but he also has an extra year (so to speak) to develop that when compared to other elite shortstop prospects.
2. Felnin Celesten, SS (No. 24 on the top 100)
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
Celesten might be a superstar, if he can stay on the field and make the most of his prodigious physical abilities. Signed in January 2023 for a $4.2 million bonus, Celesten missed all of the 2023 complex season with a hamstring strain, then went to the Arizona Complex League (skipping the DSL) to start 2024 and hit .352/.431/.568, which put him in the top 10 in the league in average and slugging among all players with at least 100 PA. He missed a month with wrist pain, returned for one game in late July, and then shut it down, eventually undergoing surgery to repair a broken hamate bone. The team said it was an old injury, so he did all that at the plate while playing through an injury that typically saps a ton of power from a hitter. He’s a true switch-hitter with plus speed, an above-average to plus arm, and good actions at shortstop, lagging behind in some of the less tangible aspects like his internal clock and getting better reads off the bat. If he has the work ethic to match his tools, he’s going to be a superstar.
3. Cole Young, SS (No. 45 on the top 100)
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 180 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 21
Young had another very solid year at the plate while being young for his level, hitting .271/.369/.390 as a 20-year-old in Double A, all comfortably above the averages for the Texas League (.240/.327/.374) even though he was the fourth-youngest regular at the level. He’s always been an advanced hitter for his age with exceptional feel for contact; data from Synergy Sports show him with a whiff rate of just 19 percent last year, and nothing over 22 percent on any of the big four pitch types. His swing is handsy and doesn’t generate much power, although he does make hard enough contact to keep his average up, and gets the ball in the air enough to maybe see him as a 40-doubles, 10-homer guy in the majors. He can play shortstop but probably will end up superseded by a plus defender, while he’s played extremely well at second and might be a plus defender himself at that spot. He’s a no-doubt big leaguer, with the floor of a very good platoon infielder who can play multiple spots but maybe sits against good lefties, and a strong probability that he’s at least a solid-average regular at one of the two middle infield positions.
4. Lazaro Montes, 1B (No. 66 on the top 100)
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 20
Montes is a huge, lumbering prospect from Cuba who hits the ball exceptionally hard, so the natural comparison is to a young Yordan Alvarez, who was older than Montes when he first played in full-season ball but reached the majors days before his 22nd birthday. Montes is extremely strong and has produced exit velocities well north of 110 mph, with clear 40 homer upside as long as he hits enough to get to it. He’s not as natural of a hitter as Alvarez, although the Mariners worked with him on pitch selection and a two-strike approach last year and he did see better swing decisions overall. He raked in Low A as a 19-year-old, hitting .309/.411/.527 with just a 19.1 percent strikeout rate, then moved up to High A around the midpoint and hit .260/.378/.427 there with a 29.6 percent strikeout rate, still making hard contact but a lot more whiffs on stuff in the zone. He’s going to end up at first base, as he’s already really big for an outfield corner and doesn’t have much range, but there’s a pretty good chance he hits for enough power and takes enough walks to be an above-average regular there. I don’t think Montes is really the next Yordan; he doesn’t have the same kind of hit tool, but he also doesn’t have Yordan’s knees, which both required surgery when he was 23 and made him even less mobile than he was before.
5. Harry Ford, C (No. 79 on the top 100)
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 200 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 22
Ford had a mixed year in 2024, moving up to Double A and continuing to get on base, albeit with slightly worse results across the board at the plate, while his defense behind the plate was worse and there’s more chance now that he ends up at DH than there was a year ago. He still has very strong plate discipline, chasing pitches out of the zone just 19 percent of the time, about one-third of those were pitches just one ball’s width outside of the zone. He has shown he can lay off many right-handers’ sliders down and away. He has more raw power than his .367 slugging percentage would imply, but last year he just didn’t square the ball up anywhere near as consistently as he had before, and his tendency to pop up pitches a little above the belt got worse. He’s a plus runner and great athlete who moves well behind the dish, but he’s a 45 receiver right now and his plus arm hasn’t translated into even average caught-stealing rates. The Mariners did try him a few games in left field this year, but the early returns weren’t promising. He’s 21, knows the strike zone, has untapped power, and is very athletic, all reasons to still believe there’s upside here, but Ford’s 2024 season was kind of a disappointment, and if he doesn’t stay behind the plate I’m not sure the bat will profile as a regular at any other spot.
6. Michael Arroyo, SS (No. 81 on the top 100)
Height: 5-8 | Weight: 160 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20
Arroyo needed to get to more power, and he did in 2024, repeating Low A and boosting his slugging percentage by 127 points, then heading up to High A and hitting .290/.397/.519 — all before his 20th birthday. He signed in January 2022 with the reputation of being an advanced hitter, and that’s been true, as he has a great approach that has him aggressive within the strike zone without expanding outside of it too often. He’s short with a stockier build, with really no chance to stay at shortstop, so there was more pressure on him to hit the ball harder, and he did so, with big improvements in his batted-ball data and his power output. He hit five homers total in 61 games in 2023, then hit 23 in 120 games last year. He barrels the ball very consistently and puts it in the air over 60 percent of the time. In the field, he has a plus arm and good enough hands to stay on the dirt somewhere, playing almost all of his reps at second base last year but with third base also a possibility as long as he doesn’t get much bigger. We’ve seen plenty of undersized infielders become All-Stars in recent years because they could square the ball up for frequent hard contact, including José Ramírez and Alex Bregman. That’s Arroyo’s absolute best-case scenario, of course, but as long as he stays on the dirt he should be at least an everyday player.
7. Jonny Farmelo, OF (Just missed)
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 20
Farmelo’s first full pro season was off to a great start — he hit .264/.398/.421 through 46 games in Low A — when he tore the ACL in his right knee while making a play in the outfield, ending his season in early June and possibly keeping him out for the start of the 2025 regular season. Before the injury, he was a 70 runner and plus defender in center with a strong eye at the plate and good feel for contact despite an arm bar that often leaves a hitter exposed on tough pitches inside. He showed excellent command of the strike zone for his age, and had the usual challenges ahead like picking up better sliders and changeups. If his speed returns to full strength, he’s a top 50-60 prospect again, but there’s always uncertainty around an injury like this when the player depends on his speed for a hefty chunk of his value. He’s one of three Mariners in the next 25 names after the top 100, along with two of their 2024 draftees, switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and right-hander Ryan Sloan.
8. Jurrangelo Cijntje, SHP
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 200 | Bats: S | Throws: S | Age: 22
That’s not a typo — Cijntje is an actual switch-pitcher, although he’s much better as a right-handed pitcher and I assume eventually he’ll give up pitching left-handed. His right-handed delivery and arsenal are clearly that of a starter, with the upside of a No. 2. He’s 95-97, touching 99, with a 55 slider and solid-average changeup that has good fading action, although it might be a little too close to the fastball in velocity. His right-handed arm action is compact and repeatable, with a three-quarters slot and good use of his lower half. When he throws left-handed, he comes across his body, lowers his slot, and throws about 2 mph softer. He often kept throwing right-handed even to left-handed batters in college, so it seems like he understands he’s better from that side. He’s very athletic and moves extremely well on the mound, throwing strikes from both sides, and seems likely to be able to make adjustments to his pitches as he moves up given the athleticism and reports on his makeup.
9. Ryan Sloan, RHP
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 19
The Mariners took Sloan with their second-round pick in 2024, landing one of the best high school arms in the entire class. He’s been up to 100 with an above-average slider that projects to plus and a 55/60 changeup with good fade to it. He extends well over his front side and stays online to the plate, allowing him to throw strikes with everything. He does need to show he can work more to his glove side, and of course, as with any teenager pitching throwing this hard, he has to be able to stay healthy in the next few years. He has all the ingredients to be a No. 2 starter if he can stay healthy.
10. Logan Evans, RHP
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Evans was the Mariners’ 12th-round pick in 2023 out of Pitt despite a total lack of success in college and a fastball that sat in the low 90s, but they were on to something, as he’s 95-97 now, added a sweeper with Seattle’s help, and has clear starter upside. He’s working with six distinct pitches, throwing more sliders than four-seamers last year, as the fastball doesn’t miss bats and is more of a get-ahead pitch for him. He may need to ramp up use of the two-seamer, which he doesn’t throw a ton, as he moves up the ladder. He’s a little cross-body and will have to keep using and refining his changeup to continue to get lefties out, which he did well in 2024. He went straight to Double A to start the season, posting a 3.20 ERA in 107 innings, with a 48 percent groundball rate but just a 22 percent strikeout rate, so one of those numbers has to improve a little to make him an above-average starter. He’s at least a No. 4, though, and I’ll bet on any pitcher who’s already shown this kind of capacity to make adjustments.
11. Brandyn Garcia, LHP
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 235 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 24
Another late-round find for the Mariners’ amateur scouting department, Garcia was their 11th-round pick in 2023 out of Texas A&M, where he had a 5.56 ERA as a reliever. Seattle saw a starter, and it looks like they were right, as he threw 116 innings between High A and Double A last year, posting a 2.25 ERA and striking out 27 percent of batters while posting a 53.4 percent groundball rate — although that did come down quite a bit after his promotion. His fastball doesn’t look like a sinker, but the results say it is one, and he has a very sweepy slider and a cutter as his pitches to get swings and misses. He comes from a lower slot and the development of his changeup is going to determine his ultimate role; it has some action to it but he gets on the side of it and doesn’t seem to have a lot of feel for the pitch yet. If he throws that more this year and also gets his groundball rate back up over 50 percent, he could be a fourth starter and wouldn’t be too far from the majors.
12. Tyler Locklear, 1B
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 210 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Locklear reached the majors last year, two years after Seattle took him in the second round out of VCU, although he didn’t hit in his brief time in the big leagues. He’s first base only now, as third base was always rough, and is power over hit, topping out at 113.3 mph in Triple A last year and 111.7 in the majors. He should be on Seattle’s bench this year, backing up at first and DH and serving as an all-around pinch hitter. I don’t think there’s any ceiling beyond that, though.
13. Tai Peete, SS/3B/OF
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 193 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
Peete was the Mariners’ third pick in the 2023 draft (No. 30 selection), the last of their three selections in the top 30. He spent all of last year in Low A, where he showed some positives and also showed that he’s going to take much longer than his draftmates Emerson and Farmelo. Peete hit .269/.343/.408 for Modesto, with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate, still drawing plenty of walks (10.4 percent), with a wide platoon split across his walk and strikeout numbers. He’s not going to stick at shortstop, showing the arm and athleticism for third base but not the instincts, and he may end up in the outfield in the long term. He was 18 for the majority of the 2024 season, younger than most of his league mates, and will need the extra time that affords to develop a lot of the fundamentals — like his overall feel for the game — that guys like Emerson and Farmelo already had.
14. Teddy McGraw, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
McGraw returned in August from 2023 Tommy John surgery, made four reasonably promising appearances, but then re-injured the elbow and had to be shut down. It’s so tantalizing when he’s healthy, with a lively mid-90s fastball, a slider that might be a 70, and a changeup that was average when he was a sophomore at Wake Forest and looked even better last summer. He should be back pitching again at some point in the spring, after the start of the regular season; I just don’t know how much he can pitch given his history of elbow issues. It is premium stuff, better than mid-rotation level, if he can handle the workload.
15. Michael Morales, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
This is a lot closer to the Morales the Mariners thought they were getting when they paid him an over-slot bonus in the third round back in 2021. He threw 149 innings last year, by far a career high, and his command and control were also the best he’d shown, with a walk rate of 6.2 percent that held even after his promotion to Double A. His velocity still hasn’t really come on, as he’s mostly 90-93, and when he got to the higher level he became homer-prone, allowing 11 longballs in 65 innings, seven of them coming off the fastball. He could still develop into more than a fourth/fifth starter if he finds some more velocity or maybe tries a sinker or cutter to keep hitters from squaring up the four-seamer.
16. Jeter Martinez, RHP
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 19
Martinez has a very quick arm, up to 96 and sitting 92-94 as a starter, showing an above-average changeup in the mid-80s and a fringy slider, although in 2024 he was much better against righties. He also walked 31 in 39 2/3 innings in the Arizona Complex League, 16.8 percent of batters he faced, so there’s clearly some high reliever risk here — and the fact that his arm is late relative to his landing leg may explain the lack of an average breaking ball and the 40 control. He’s also very young and the Mariners haven’t done much with him yet given his youth, so he retains starter upside — he’d have been in the 2024 draft class as a high school senior, for comparison’s sake.
17. Josh Caron, C
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 21
The Mariners went very heavy on their first two picks in the 2024 draft, going under slot for most of their remaining picks in the top 10, but they did go full slot for Caron, a Nebraska catcher with plus power and enough skills behind the plate to project as at least a backup. His pitch recognition is his real weakness, as he didn’t hit non-fastballs well in college or even in his 54 PA in Low A after he signed. If he tightens that up at all, he could end up a regular because he has 15-20 homer power and the strength to hit .240 or so, even without much beyond that in his OBP
18. Hunter Cranton, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Cranton was a redshirt senior at Kansas last spring, moving to the bullpen full-time and watching his velocity jump to 96-98. The Mariners took him in the third round, signing him to a well below-slot $50,000 bonus (which helped provide the bonus pool space to pay Sloan). He went out to Low-A Modesto for a spell after he signed and struck out 14 of 35 batters he faced. His fastball has serious hop as it reaches the plate, and he has a solid-average slider that would be a 55 if he could get it down in or below the zone more often. Given his age and present stuff, the Mariners are almost certainly going to move him quickly and see if they can get him to the majors before he gets hurt again (he missed the 2020 season in college after shoulder surgery).
19. Ashton Izzi, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 165 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 21
Izzi had a so-so year as a 20-year-old in Low A, working in the low- to mid-90s with an average slider and changeup, walking too many, but also taking the ball every time and getting to 116 innings. He still has room for growth, both in velocity and in developing his secondaries, needing to throw more strikes and find something to miss more bats.
20. Tyler Gough, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Bats: S | Throws: R | Age: 21
Gough had a solid comeback year in 2024 after missing a big chunk of 2023 to an oblique injury, throwing strikes and showing progress on the fastball and changeup. He made 23 starts, throwing 95 2/3 innings, while repeating Low A. He cut his ERA by over a run and boosted his K rate from 18 percent to 24 percent. Unfortunately he tore his UCL and had to have surgery that will keep him off the mound until 2026. Even before the injury, he had lost the curveball he’d flashed in high school and was trying to develop a slider as his primary breaking pitch. Check back in a year.
Others of note
Acquired from Atlanta in the Jarred Kelenic trade, right-hander Cole Phillips had to undergo a second Tommy John surgery shortly after the deal and still has yet to throw a professional pitch. He was Atlanta’s second-round pick in 2022, hitting 100 mph that spring before he blew out his elbow the first time, and was back throwing again in the fall, so we might see him in games again in the late summer of 2025. … Right-hander Jimmy Joyce moved to the bullpen in June of last year and saw his walk rate come down to 10.9 percent, pitching well enough in stretches to see him as a possible middle reliever in the majors. He works 93-94 in relief with a 55 changeup. He had three absolute disaster outings where he couldn’t get out of an inning, allowing 17 runs in 1 1/3 innings total in those games; in his other 16 relief appearances, he had a 0.87 ERA in 31 innings, with 11 walks and 34 strikeouts. I have no idea what to even make of that. Agenbite of inwit! … Right-hander Taylor Dollard had labrum surgery just three starts into 2023 and hasn’t returned to the mound yet. He had excellent control of a below-average fastball and 55ish curveball before then, and any further hit to his velocity probably ends his chance of a big-league career. … Third baseman Ben Williamson has above-average plate discipline with an ugly swing that doesn’t produce any power; he hit .273/.365/.374 in Double A last year, but I think better pitchers are going to pound the inner third and he doesn’t have the swing to get to those pitches. … A couple of the Mariners’ recent big international signees had rough years in 2024. Shortstop Dawel Joseph, signed in January of last year for $3 million, hit .133/.274/.173 in the Dominican Summer League. He was very young, only turning 17 in May, two weeks before the DSL schedule started, and was clearly not ready for even that level. He has a solid right-handed swing that puts the ball in the air and projects to stay at shortstop — if he hits .200 at some point, I guess. … Right-hander Dylan Wilson, signed from Curaçao in January 2023, sits in the low 90s and can spin a 55 curveball, but walked 29 in 32 innings in the ACL as an 18-year-old.
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2025 impact
If someone on this top 20 has a significant impact in the major leagues in 2025, it’ll be because Seattle traded him somewhere else. Locklear probably spends some time on their bench, but barring a significant injury somewhere on the diamond, even Cole Young, who’s the closest of their top prospects to the majors, probably doesn’t get anything more than a cup of coffee this season.
The fallen
Outfielder Zach DeLoach, the No. 43 pick in the 2020 draft, has struggled with contact in the high minors, with a 27 percent strikeout rate in Triple A over the last two years. The Mariners traded him to the White Sox one year ago this week to acquire pitcher Gregory Santos, who then spent most of the year on the injured list, so I guess they got what they paid for? DeLoach was designated for assignment by the White Sox on Monday.
Sleeper
If Sloan just stays healthy and continues to throw strikes, he’s going to be the talk of Low A this year given his size and stuff. I’m just bearish as a philosophy on high school pitchers who were just drafted because the attrition rate of the group as a whole is so high
The Mariners have the best farm system in baseball, and if you really want to know why, it’s because they have the best top 10 in baseball. They probably have nine players in the top 125, most of whom have some kind of star or elite ceiling, and then it dwindles a little bit after their No. 11 prospect — although there are still a few athletes down there who might need some more time to cook. The value of their top nine or 10 or 11, depending on where you want to put the dividing line, is so high that I put them at the No. 1 spot even over a couple of systems that look a little deeper.
(Note: Tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale; ages as of July 1, 2025.)
1. Colt Emerson, SS (No. 5 on the top 100)
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
If Emerson had stayed healthy all year, he would have been close to the very top of this list, just based on how good he looked and how well he performed when he was able to take the field. The 22nd pick in 2023, Emerson went to Low A to start last year as an 18-year-old — his birthday is in late July — and hit .293/.440/.427 in 40 games, walking more than he struck out. The Mariners bumped him up to High A in early August, and he hit .225/.331/.317 in 29 games there — but still made plenty of contact — and then hit .370/.436/.537 as one of the youngest players in the Arizona Fall League. The bad news is that he played a total of 83 games between the regular season and the AFL, hitting the IL in April with an oblique strain, breaking a bone in his foot by fouling a ball off it in mid-May, and then leaving Arizona in early November after straining a hamstring.
He’s played about 80 percent of his pro innings at shortstop and has shown the range and instincts to stay there, even though he’s just an average runner; if his propensity to get hurt continues as he matures, he may be better served moving to third or second, but he’s so much more valuable at short that he’ll probably stay there at least through the high minors. He has all of the ingredients to be a hitter for a high average and OBP, with a short path to the ball, excellent bat speed and a strong approach for his age. He might only lack the power to get to the upper echelons of MLB position players, but he also has an extra year (so to speak) to develop that when compared to other elite shortstop prospects.
2. Felnin Celesten, SS (No. 24 on the top 100)
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
Celesten might be a superstar, if he can stay on the field and make the most of his prodigious physical abilities. Signed in January 2023 for a $4.2 million bonus, Celesten missed all of the 2023 complex season with a hamstring strain, then went to the Arizona Complex League (skipping the DSL) to start 2024 and hit .352/.431/.568, which put him in the top 10 in the league in average and slugging among all players with at least 100 PA. He missed a month with wrist pain, returned for one game in late July, and then shut it down, eventually undergoing surgery to repair a broken hamate bone. The team said it was an old injury, so he did all that at the plate while playing through an injury that typically saps a ton of power from a hitter. He’s a true switch-hitter with plus speed, an above-average to plus arm, and good actions at shortstop, lagging behind in some of the less tangible aspects like his internal clock and getting better reads off the bat. If he has the work ethic to match his tools, he’s going to be a superstar.
3. Cole Young, SS (No. 45 on the top 100)
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 180 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 21
Young had another very solid year at the plate while being young for his level, hitting .271/.369/.390 as a 20-year-old in Double A, all comfortably above the averages for the Texas League (.240/.327/.374) even though he was the fourth-youngest regular at the level. He’s always been an advanced hitter for his age with exceptional feel for contact; data from Synergy Sports show him with a whiff rate of just 19 percent last year, and nothing over 22 percent on any of the big four pitch types. His swing is handsy and doesn’t generate much power, although he does make hard enough contact to keep his average up, and gets the ball in the air enough to maybe see him as a 40-doubles, 10-homer guy in the majors. He can play shortstop but probably will end up superseded by a plus defender, while he’s played extremely well at second and might be a plus defender himself at that spot. He’s a no-doubt big leaguer, with the floor of a very good platoon infielder who can play multiple spots but maybe sits against good lefties, and a strong probability that he’s at least a solid-average regular at one of the two middle infield positions.
4. Lazaro Montes, 1B (No. 66 on the top 100)
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 20
Montes is a huge, lumbering prospect from Cuba who hits the ball exceptionally hard, so the natural comparison is to a young Yordan Alvarez, who was older than Montes when he first played in full-season ball but reached the majors days before his 22nd birthday. Montes is extremely strong and has produced exit velocities well north of 110 mph, with clear 40 homer upside as long as he hits enough to get to it. He’s not as natural of a hitter as Alvarez, although the Mariners worked with him on pitch selection and a two-strike approach last year and he did see better swing decisions overall. He raked in Low A as a 19-year-old, hitting .309/.411/.527 with just a 19.1 percent strikeout rate, then moved up to High A around the midpoint and hit .260/.378/.427 there with a 29.6 percent strikeout rate, still making hard contact but a lot more whiffs on stuff in the zone. He’s going to end up at first base, as he’s already really big for an outfield corner and doesn’t have much range, but there’s a pretty good chance he hits for enough power and takes enough walks to be an above-average regular there. I don’t think Montes is really the next Yordan; he doesn’t have the same kind of hit tool, but he also doesn’t have Yordan’s knees, which both required surgery when he was 23 and made him even less mobile than he was before.
5. Harry Ford, C (No. 79 on the top 100)
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 200 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 22
Ford had a mixed year in 2024, moving up to Double A and continuing to get on base, albeit with slightly worse results across the board at the plate, while his defense behind the plate was worse and there’s more chance now that he ends up at DH than there was a year ago. He still has very strong plate discipline, chasing pitches out of the zone just 19 percent of the time, about one-third of those were pitches just one ball’s width outside of the zone. He has shown he can lay off many right-handers’ sliders down and away. He has more raw power than his .367 slugging percentage would imply, but last year he just didn’t square the ball up anywhere near as consistently as he had before, and his tendency to pop up pitches a little above the belt got worse. He’s a plus runner and great athlete who moves well behind the dish, but he’s a 45 receiver right now and his plus arm hasn’t translated into even average caught-stealing rates. The Mariners did try him a few games in left field this year, but the early returns weren’t promising. He’s 21, knows the strike zone, has untapped power, and is very athletic, all reasons to still believe there’s upside here, but Ford’s 2024 season was kind of a disappointment, and if he doesn’t stay behind the plate I’m not sure the bat will profile as a regular at any other spot.
6. Michael Arroyo, SS (No. 81 on the top 100)
Height: 5-8 | Weight: 160 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20
Arroyo needed to get to more power, and he did in 2024, repeating Low A and boosting his slugging percentage by 127 points, then heading up to High A and hitting .290/.397/.519 — all before his 20th birthday. He signed in January 2022 with the reputation of being an advanced hitter, and that’s been true, as he has a great approach that has him aggressive within the strike zone without expanding outside of it too often. He’s short with a stockier build, with really no chance to stay at shortstop, so there was more pressure on him to hit the ball harder, and he did so, with big improvements in his batted-ball data and his power output. He hit five homers total in 61 games in 2023, then hit 23 in 120 games last year. He barrels the ball very consistently and puts it in the air over 60 percent of the time. In the field, he has a plus arm and good enough hands to stay on the dirt somewhere, playing almost all of his reps at second base last year but with third base also a possibility as long as he doesn’t get much bigger. We’ve seen plenty of undersized infielders become All-Stars in recent years because they could square the ball up for frequent hard contact, including José Ramírez and Alex Bregman. That’s Arroyo’s absolute best-case scenario, of course, but as long as he stays on the dirt he should be at least an everyday player.
7. Jonny Farmelo, OF (Just missed)
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 20
Farmelo’s first full pro season was off to a great start — he hit .264/.398/.421 through 46 games in Low A — when he tore the ACL in his right knee while making a play in the outfield, ending his season in early June and possibly keeping him out for the start of the 2025 regular season. Before the injury, he was a 70 runner and plus defender in center with a strong eye at the plate and good feel for contact despite an arm bar that often leaves a hitter exposed on tough pitches inside. He showed excellent command of the strike zone for his age, and had the usual challenges ahead like picking up better sliders and changeups. If his speed returns to full strength, he’s a top 50-60 prospect again, but there’s always uncertainty around an injury like this when the player depends on his speed for a hefty chunk of his value. He’s one of three Mariners in the next 25 names after the top 100, along with two of their 2024 draftees, switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and right-hander Ryan Sloan.
8. Jurrangelo Cijntje, SHP
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 200 | Bats: S | Throws: S | Age: 22
That’s not a typo — Cijntje is an actual switch-pitcher, although he’s much better as a right-handed pitcher and I assume eventually he’ll give up pitching left-handed. His right-handed delivery and arsenal are clearly that of a starter, with the upside of a No. 2. He’s 95-97, touching 99, with a 55 slider and solid-average changeup that has good fading action, although it might be a little too close to the fastball in velocity. His right-handed arm action is compact and repeatable, with a three-quarters slot and good use of his lower half. When he throws left-handed, he comes across his body, lowers his slot, and throws about 2 mph softer. He often kept throwing right-handed even to left-handed batters in college, so it seems like he understands he’s better from that side. He’s very athletic and moves extremely well on the mound, throwing strikes from both sides, and seems likely to be able to make adjustments to his pitches as he moves up given the athleticism and reports on his makeup.
9. Ryan Sloan, RHP
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 19
The Mariners took Sloan with their second-round pick in 2024, landing one of the best high school arms in the entire class. He’s been up to 100 with an above-average slider that projects to plus and a 55/60 changeup with good fade to it. He extends well over his front side and stays online to the plate, allowing him to throw strikes with everything. He does need to show he can work more to his glove side, and of course, as with any teenager pitching throwing this hard, he has to be able to stay healthy in the next few years. He has all the ingredients to be a No. 2 starter if he can stay healthy.
10. Logan Evans, RHP
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Evans was the Mariners’ 12th-round pick in 2023 out of Pitt despite a total lack of success in college and a fastball that sat in the low 90s, but they were on to something, as he’s 95-97 now, added a sweeper with Seattle’s help, and has clear starter upside. He’s working with six distinct pitches, throwing more sliders than four-seamers last year, as the fastball doesn’t miss bats and is more of a get-ahead pitch for him. He may need to ramp up use of the two-seamer, which he doesn’t throw a ton, as he moves up the ladder. He’s a little cross-body and will have to keep using and refining his changeup to continue to get lefties out, which he did well in 2024. He went straight to Double A to start the season, posting a 3.20 ERA in 107 innings, with a 48 percent groundball rate but just a 22 percent strikeout rate, so one of those numbers has to improve a little to make him an above-average starter. He’s at least a No. 4, though, and I’ll bet on any pitcher who’s already shown this kind of capacity to make adjustments.
11. Brandyn Garcia, LHP
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 235 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 24
Another late-round find for the Mariners’ amateur scouting department, Garcia was their 11th-round pick in 2023 out of Texas A&M, where he had a 5.56 ERA as a reliever. Seattle saw a starter, and it looks like they were right, as he threw 116 innings between High A and Double A last year, posting a 2.25 ERA and striking out 27 percent of batters while posting a 53.4 percent groundball rate — although that did come down quite a bit after his promotion. His fastball doesn’t look like a sinker, but the results say it is one, and he has a very sweepy slider and a cutter as his pitches to get swings and misses. He comes from a lower slot and the development of his changeup is going to determine his ultimate role; it has some action to it but he gets on the side of it and doesn’t seem to have a lot of feel for the pitch yet. If he throws that more this year and also gets his groundball rate back up over 50 percent, he could be a fourth starter and wouldn’t be too far from the majors.
12. Tyler Locklear, 1B
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 210 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Locklear reached the majors last year, two years after Seattle took him in the second round out of VCU, although he didn’t hit in his brief time in the big leagues. He’s first base only now, as third base was always rough, and is power over hit, topping out at 113.3 mph in Triple A last year and 111.7 in the majors. He should be on Seattle’s bench this year, backing up at first and DH and serving as an all-around pinch hitter. I don’t think there’s any ceiling beyond that, though.
13. Tai Peete, SS/3B/OF
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 193 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
Peete was the Mariners’ third pick in the 2023 draft (No. 30 selection), the last of their three selections in the top 30. He spent all of last year in Low A, where he showed some positives and also showed that he’s going to take much longer than his draftmates Emerson and Farmelo. Peete hit .269/.343/.408 for Modesto, with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate, still drawing plenty of walks (10.4 percent), with a wide platoon split across his walk and strikeout numbers. He’s not going to stick at shortstop, showing the arm and athleticism for third base but not the instincts, and he may end up in the outfield in the long term. He was 18 for the majority of the 2024 season, younger than most of his league mates, and will need the extra time that affords to develop a lot of the fundamentals — like his overall feel for the game — that guys like Emerson and Farmelo already had.
14. Teddy McGraw, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
McGraw returned in August from 2023 Tommy John surgery, made four reasonably promising appearances, but then re-injured the elbow and had to be shut down. It’s so tantalizing when he’s healthy, with a lively mid-90s fastball, a slider that might be a 70, and a changeup that was average when he was a sophomore at Wake Forest and looked even better last summer. He should be back pitching again at some point in the spring, after the start of the regular season; I just don’t know how much he can pitch given his history of elbow issues. It is premium stuff, better than mid-rotation level, if he can handle the workload.
15. Michael Morales, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
This is a lot closer to the Morales the Mariners thought they were getting when they paid him an over-slot bonus in the third round back in 2021. He threw 149 innings last year, by far a career high, and his command and control were also the best he’d shown, with a walk rate of 6.2 percent that held even after his promotion to Double A. His velocity still hasn’t really come on, as he’s mostly 90-93, and when he got to the higher level he became homer-prone, allowing 11 longballs in 65 innings, seven of them coming off the fastball. He could still develop into more than a fourth/fifth starter if he finds some more velocity or maybe tries a sinker or cutter to keep hitters from squaring up the four-seamer.
16. Jeter Martinez, RHP
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 19
Martinez has a very quick arm, up to 96 and sitting 92-94 as a starter, showing an above-average changeup in the mid-80s and a fringy slider, although in 2024 he was much better against righties. He also walked 31 in 39 2/3 innings in the Arizona Complex League, 16.8 percent of batters he faced, so there’s clearly some high reliever risk here — and the fact that his arm is late relative to his landing leg may explain the lack of an average breaking ball and the 40 control. He’s also very young and the Mariners haven’t done much with him yet given his youth, so he retains starter upside — he’d have been in the 2024 draft class as a high school senior, for comparison’s sake.
17. Josh Caron, C
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 21
The Mariners went very heavy on their first two picks in the 2024 draft, going under slot for most of their remaining picks in the top 10, but they did go full slot for Caron, a Nebraska catcher with plus power and enough skills behind the plate to project as at least a backup. His pitch recognition is his real weakness, as he didn’t hit non-fastballs well in college or even in his 54 PA in Low A after he signed. If he tightens that up at all, he could end up a regular because he has 15-20 homer power and the strength to hit .240 or so, even without much beyond that in his OBP
18. Hunter Cranton, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Cranton was a redshirt senior at Kansas last spring, moving to the bullpen full-time and watching his velocity jump to 96-98. The Mariners took him in the third round, signing him to a well below-slot $50,000 bonus (which helped provide the bonus pool space to pay Sloan). He went out to Low-A Modesto for a spell after he signed and struck out 14 of 35 batters he faced. His fastball has serious hop as it reaches the plate, and he has a solid-average slider that would be a 55 if he could get it down in or below the zone more often. Given his age and present stuff, the Mariners are almost certainly going to move him quickly and see if they can get him to the majors before he gets hurt again (he missed the 2020 season in college after shoulder surgery).
19. Ashton Izzi, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 165 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 21
Izzi had a so-so year as a 20-year-old in Low A, working in the low- to mid-90s with an average slider and changeup, walking too many, but also taking the ball every time and getting to 116 innings. He still has room for growth, both in velocity and in developing his secondaries, needing to throw more strikes and find something to miss more bats.
20. Tyler Gough, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Bats: S | Throws: R | Age: 21
Gough had a solid comeback year in 2024 after missing a big chunk of 2023 to an oblique injury, throwing strikes and showing progress on the fastball and changeup. He made 23 starts, throwing 95 2/3 innings, while repeating Low A. He cut his ERA by over a run and boosted his K rate from 18 percent to 24 percent. Unfortunately he tore his UCL and had to have surgery that will keep him off the mound until 2026. Even before the injury, he had lost the curveball he’d flashed in high school and was trying to develop a slider as his primary breaking pitch. Check back in a year.
Others of note
Acquired from Atlanta in the Jarred Kelenic trade, right-hander Cole Phillips had to undergo a second Tommy John surgery shortly after the deal and still has yet to throw a professional pitch. He was Atlanta’s second-round pick in 2022, hitting 100 mph that spring before he blew out his elbow the first time, and was back throwing again in the fall, so we might see him in games again in the late summer of 2025. … Right-hander Jimmy Joyce moved to the bullpen in June of last year and saw his walk rate come down to 10.9 percent, pitching well enough in stretches to see him as a possible middle reliever in the majors. He works 93-94 in relief with a 55 changeup. He had three absolute disaster outings where he couldn’t get out of an inning, allowing 17 runs in 1 1/3 innings total in those games; in his other 16 relief appearances, he had a 0.87 ERA in 31 innings, with 11 walks and 34 strikeouts. I have no idea what to even make of that. Agenbite of inwit! … Right-hander Taylor Dollard had labrum surgery just three starts into 2023 and hasn’t returned to the mound yet. He had excellent control of a below-average fastball and 55ish curveball before then, and any further hit to his velocity probably ends his chance of a big-league career. … Third baseman Ben Williamson has above-average plate discipline with an ugly swing that doesn’t produce any power; he hit .273/.365/.374 in Double A last year, but I think better pitchers are going to pound the inner third and he doesn’t have the swing to get to those pitches. … A couple of the Mariners’ recent big international signees had rough years in 2024. Shortstop Dawel Joseph, signed in January of last year for $3 million, hit .133/.274/.173 in the Dominican Summer League. He was very young, only turning 17 in May, two weeks before the DSL schedule started, and was clearly not ready for even that level. He has a solid right-handed swing that puts the ball in the air and projects to stay at shortstop — if he hits .200 at some point, I guess. … Right-hander Dylan Wilson, signed from Curaçao in January 2023, sits in the low 90s and can spin a 55 curveball, but walked 29 in 32 innings in the ACL as an 18-year-old.
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2025 impact
If someone on this top 20 has a significant impact in the major leagues in 2025, it’ll be because Seattle traded him somewhere else. Locklear probably spends some time on their bench, but barring a significant injury somewhere on the diamond, even Cole Young, who’s the closest of their top prospects to the majors, probably doesn’t get anything more than a cup of coffee this season.
The fallen
Outfielder Zach DeLoach, the No. 43 pick in the 2020 draft, has struggled with contact in the high minors, with a 27 percent strikeout rate in Triple A over the last two years. The Mariners traded him to the White Sox one year ago this week to acquire pitcher Gregory Santos, who then spent most of the year on the injured list, so I guess they got what they paid for? DeLoach was designated for assignment by the White Sox on Monday.
Sleeper
If Sloan just stays healthy and continues to throw strikes, he’s going to be the talk of Low A this year given his size and stuff. I’m just bearish as a philosophy on high school pitchers who were just drafted because the attrition rate of the group as a whole is so high
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
I don't see any way Locklear makes the team as long as both Mitch's are still around. There are only 4 bench spots and one of them is Garver. The others are Bliss and Solano and Rivas.
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Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
JRam is a great comp for Arroyo. Odd that he didn't mention Altuve when talking about undersized INFers since he hits RH. JRam is a SH.
dt
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
This guy's fav Blue Jay prospect is Clase who we dumped for 2 months of Turner.
He might come back to haunt us. Had almost a 1.000 OPS in a tiny sample for the BJs.
He might come back to haunt us. Had almost a 1.000 OPS in a tiny sample for the BJs.
Ross Jensen
@RossJensen12
My personal favorite prospect from each MLB team!
AL East
Baltimore Orioles: Samuel Basallo
Boston Red Sox: Franklin Arias
New York Yankees: Engelth Urena
Tampa Bay Rays: Xavier Isaac
Toronto Blu Jays: Jonatan Clase
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Donn Beach
- Posts: 15997
- Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
Can't hoard prospects
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
Clase is interesting. I would say the odds are against him having a lot of success at the major league level, but he'll get some chances. It's really just a question if he hits enough so that his speed can play.
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
Re: 2025 Prospects Thread
I’m fine with it. It’s clear that they aren’t going big in free agency, so let’s just hope they strike gold with a few prospects and find a way to resign Raleigh, Kirby and Gilbert
The poster formerly known as Kingfelixk. With a new forum comes a new boardname. Julio is my guy, plus we share a birthday, so that's Culiooooo
Adopt a Mariner-Julio Rodriguez
Adopt a Mariner-Julio Rodriguez