2/5* Game Thread Woo v Leiter

[Donn Beach]

But it's the relationship between performance at T-Mobile as opposed to other parks, if the Mariners had a crappy offense it be just as crappy on the road as it would at T-Mobile. And it's calculated with more than just the Mariners performance aren't they. I thought it was euvery team's performance at T-Mobile in relation to all the other parks

Park factors are calculated considering the performance of all teams, both home and away, at a specific ballpark. They are not just based on the home team's performance. The calculation compares offensive production (runs scored) in a team's home games to their offensive production on the road, and this calculation includes the opponents' performance as well.

[Seattle or Bust]

But it's the relationship between performance at T-Mobile as opposed to other parks, if the Mariners had a crappy offense it be just as crappy on the road as it would at T-Mobile. And it's calculated with more than just the Mariners performance aren't they. I thought it was euvery team's performance at T-Mobile in relation to all the other parks

Park factors are calculated considering the performance of all teams, both home and away, at a specific ballpark. They are not just based on the home team's performance. The calculation compares offensive production (runs scored) in a team's home games to their offensive production on the road, and this calculation includes the opponents' performance as well.

Yes, but that number (I think, could be wrong) is skewed by the fact that the M’s have had really good pitching and bad offenses.

Yes, T-Mobile suppresses offense. However, the M’s haven’t put forward many good offenses in the ballpark.

Again, how else do you explain T-Mobile suddenly being 22 and not dead last in ‘25? The pitching hasn’t been as good… the hitting has been a bit better… it’s those margins that cause a shift of 8 or spots that make me not trust it…

It is either the hardest park to hit in or it isn’t… there should never be a fluctuation. The weather, dimensions, attributes, what have you are more or less unchanging so the park factor should never change either.

[bpj]

Might be “overstated” but again you’re arguing C when I’m arguing B.

I’m saying nobody with a brain and eyes would say the M’s offense has been better than the M’s pitching the last 3 years.

If there's anything I've complained about "most", it's the "park adjusted stats" and all of the flaws with them.

It is pretty eye opening how much better they've been since making the coaching changes August 22nd. Whether that's that DeHart sucked bag, or just that Edgar and the new guys are that awesome, I don't know.

But if there's one thing I do (feel that I) know, it's that park adjusted stats suck giant donkey nuts.

I will fully admit that T-Mobile suppresses offense. But enough to say that from ‘22-‘24 the offense has been better than the pitching? Or even close? Utter lunacy.

Of course not. Our offense was a giant trashbag until August last year.

There's a good argument to be made that it was bad because of the strategy pushed by their hitting coach.

What they do with "park adjusted stats" is make excuses for why we were so bad, just as you pointed out about the Rockies.

Edgar and the new approach seem to prove it wasn't just the park at all.

[bpj]

In 2024, before Deharts firing on 8/22, the Mariners had a .666 OPS with a 97 wRC+.

People say they "heated up in August", or they heated up after signing Robles. But from 8/1 through 8/22 their OPS was .634 with a 91 wRC+.

After DeHart's firing, from 8/23 on the M's had a .764 OPS with a 127 wRC+.

This season they're sitting at a .769 OPS and a 129 wRC+.

They've been pretty much the same great team ever since DeHart got the boot.

[Donn Beach]

But it's the relationship between performance at T-Mobile as opposed to other parks, if the Mariners had a crappy offense it be just as crappy on the road as it would at T-Mobile. And it's calculated with more than just the Mariners performance aren't they. I thought it was euvery team's performance at T-Mobile in relation to all the other parks

Park factors are calculated considering the performance of all teams, both home and away, at a specific ballpark. They are not just based on the home team's performance. The calculation compares offensive production (runs scored) in a team's home games to their offensive production on the road, and this calculation includes the opponents' performance as well.

Yes, but that number (I think, could be wrong) is skewed by the fact that the M’s have had really good pitching and bad offenses.

Yes, T-Mobile suppresses offense. However, the M’s haven’t put forward many good offenses in the ballpark.

Again, how else do you explain T-Mobile suddenly being 22 and not dead last in ‘25? The pitching hasn’t been as good… the hitting has been a bit better… it’s those margins that cause a shift of 8 or spots that make me not trust it…

It is either the hardest park to hit in or it isn’t… there should never be a fluctuation. The weather, dimensions, attributes, what have you are more or less unchanging so the park factor should never change either.

But again how would it skew it, all it's measuring is the difference between performance at T-Mobile and performance in the other parks. Whether it's a good offense or a poor one all we are interested in is relative difference. And as I understand it it's every team's performance at T-Mobile.

Terms of it changing I think it's volatile, that's why they use 3-5 years of data, it's actually pretty small sample size.

Theres various methods to calculate it, the favored one I understand is fangraphs. I think someone would come up with a better system if fangraphs allowed the quality of the home teams offense to skew their results

[gil]

In 2024, before Deharts firing on 8/22, the Mariners had a .666 OPS with a 97 wRC+.

People say they "heated up in August", or they heated up after signing Robles. But from 8/1 through 8/22 their OPS was .634 with a 91 wRC+.

After DeHart's firing, from 8/23 on the M's had a .764 OPS with a 127 wRC+.

This season they're sitting at a .769 OPS and a 129 wRC+.

They've been pretty much the same great team ever since DeHart got the boot.

That's about as dramatic and "before and after" that I've ever seen.

[Donn Beach]

What I'm getting at is I believe DeHart was doing what he was instructed to do. Dipoto instituted an organizational wide approach to hitting just as he has done with pitching, DeHart was following the curriculum he was given. It reflects back to his issues with Mike Scioscia, firing mickey Hatcher because they weren't using the data dipotos staff was supplying them. They changed the system to a more traditional one and brought in Edgar to handle it. But I don't think it was about blaming DeHart for the system, it was dipotos system. That's why the Yankees didn't have a problem bringing DeHart in to run their system.

[bpj]

What I'm getting at is I believe DeHart was doing what he was instructed to do. Dipoto instituted an organizational wide approach to hitting just as he has done with pitching, DeHart was following the curriculum he was given. It reflects back to his issues with Mike Scioscia, firing mickey Hatcher because they weren't using the data dipotos staff was supplying them. They changed the system to a more traditional one and brought in Edgar to handle it. But I don't think it was about blaming DeHart for the system, it was dipotos system. That's why the Yankees didn't have a problem bringing DeHart in to run their system.

Agreed, it's Dipoto's fault.

And Servais.

And DeHart.

[Seattle or Bust]

But it's the relationship between performance at T-Mobile as opposed to other parks, if the Mariners had a crappy offense it be just as crappy on the road as it would at T-Mobile. And it's calculated with more than just the Mariners performance aren't they. I thought it was euvery team's performance at T-Mobile in relation to all the other parks

Yes, but that number (I think, could be wrong) is skewed by the fact that the M’s have had really good pitching and bad offenses.

Yes, T-Mobile suppresses offense. However, the M’s haven’t put forward many good offenses in the ballpark.

Again, how else do you explain T-Mobile suddenly being 22 and not dead last in ‘25? The pitching hasn’t been as good… the hitting has been a bit better… it’s those margins that cause a shift of 8 or spots that make me not trust it…

It is either the hardest park to hit in or it isn’t… there should never be a fluctuation. The weather, dimensions, attributes, what have you are more or less unchanging so the park factor should never change either.

But again how would it skew it, all it's measuring is the difference between performance at T-Mobile and performance in the other parks. Whether it's a good offense or a poor one all we are interested in is relative difference. And as I understand it it's every team's performance at T-Mobile.

Terms of it changing I think it's volatile, that's why they use 3-5 years of data, it's actually pretty small sample size.

Theres various methods to calculate it, the favored one I understand is fangraphs. I think someone would come up with a better system if fangraphs allowed the quality of the home teams offense to skew their results

I don't disagree that that's the methodology. Like I said, I believe T-Mobile limits offense. I just disagree that it limits offense so much and enhances pitching so much that anyone could reasonably say that the M's offense was better than the M's pitching from '22-'24.

To me the metric is flawed if that's the drawn conclusion because there is really ZERO way to come to that conclusion if you use any sort of common sense.

I struggle to see how park factors can be reliable when in the "moved fence era" T-Mobile ranked 21 ('15), 15 ('16), and 23 ('17) when the M's had their best offenses and weaker pitching staffs.

It seems to me that simply putting better offensive talent on the field and worse pitching talent on the field skews park factor on the margins to where you get weak results that Harmony shared that give you a totally unreasonable conclusion.

To me, T-Mobile in its current form is suppressive, but not as suppressive as people would have you believe. Go back to 2000-2002 when the M's had legit offenses and SafeCo still finished last in park factor? You bet your sweet ass that stadium hurt hitters.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

I'm not sure Safeco was last in park factor for offense from 2000-2002. There have been some years where it was above average if i recall correctly, though not many. Does anyone know if they did something with the batter's eye this past offseason?