I don't know, and they may be minor leaguers knocking at the door. Ultimately, I'm worried about castillo continuing to lose velocity, and if they don't resign kirby and Gilbert, then get something out of them. I'd prefer to keep gilbert of the 2.
Donn Beach wrote: ↑Tue Aug 19, 2025 5:15 pmsorry but that just isn't accurate, his velocity had been reducing for years when he was still an effective pitcher. He was using his changeup effectively, which is very much being a pitcher. What he finally lost was the ability to locate consistently. He also didn't trust the Mariners coaching, they were replacing pitching coaches constantly during his career. That's where he got the reputation for being difficult to coach, and I don't blame him
So, I decided....why not look at his stats prior to 2015 and then after. I'll let you decide, but they looked considerably better BEFORE the velocity decrease.Felix Hernandez's fastball velocity declined throughout his career. His average fastball velocity dropped from around 96 mph in his prime to below 90 mph in later seasons. Despite this, his changeup, a signature pitch, remained effective, even with a smaller velocity gap compared to his fastball.
Here's a more detailed look:
Early Career: Hernandez was known for a fastball that could reach the mid-to-high 90s.
Decline: Starting around 2015, his fastball velocity began to decrease noticeably.
Changeup Effectiveness: Despite the fastball decline, Hernandez's changeup continued to be a potent weapon.
Velocity Gap: The gap between his fastball and changeup velocity narrowed, but his changeup remained effective, sometimes even fooling hitters with its speed.
Adaptation: Hernandez adapted his pitching style, relying more on off-speed pitches and movement as his fastball velocity decreased.
Effective Velocity: While his fastball velocity dropped, his effective velocity (how the ball is perceived by the hitter) was sometimes higher due to movement and location
Yeah, his velocity was diminishing, and this is what he was doing to compensate, he was in fact a pitcher. Sorry but i am going to speak up when the narrative that felix wasn't interested in pitching gets tossed out, I think its disrespectful to the man. He was trying to compensate, I think the deterioration affected his location as well as his velocityMichael K. wrote: ↑Tue Aug 19, 2025 5:50 pmDonn Beach wrote: ↑Tue Aug 19, 2025 5:15 pmsorry but that just isn't accurate, his velocity had been reducing for years when he was still an effective pitcher. He was using his changeup effectively, which is very much being a pitcher. What he finally lost was the ability to locate consistently. He also didn't trust the Mariners coaching, they were replacing pitching coaches constantly during his career. That's where he got the reputation for being difficult to coach, and I don't blame himSo, I decided....why not look at his stats prior to 2015 and then after. I'll let you decide, but they looked considerably better BEFORE the velocity decrease.Felix Hernandez's fastball velocity declined throughout his career. His average fastball velocity dropped from around 96 mph in his prime to below 90 mph in later seasons. Despite this, his changeup, a signature pitch, remained effective, even with a smaller velocity gap compared to his fastball.
Here's a more detailed look:
Early Career: Hernandez was known for a fastball that could reach the mid-to-high 90s.
Decline: Starting around 2015, his fastball velocity began to decrease noticeably.
Changeup Effectiveness: Despite the fastball decline, Hernandez's changeup continued to be a potent weapon.
Velocity Gap: The gap between his fastball and changeup velocity narrowed, but his changeup remained effective, sometimes even fooling hitters with its speed.
Adaptation: Hernandez adapted his pitching style, relying more on off-speed pitches and movement as his fastball velocity decreased.
Effective Velocity: While his fastball velocity dropped, his effective velocity (how the ball is perceived by the hitter) was sometimes higher due to movement and location
https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... fe02.shtml
2010 2.27 ERA 1.057 WHIP
2011 3.47 1.220
2012 3.06 1.142
2013 3.14 1.131
2014 2.14 0.915
2015 3.53 1.180
2016 3.82 1.324
2017 4.36 1.292
2018 5.55 1.400
2019 6.40 1.535
Yeah, velo dropped and he was the same fucking guy. Jesus Donn.
Fastball
Once his primary weapon, Hernandez now throws it less than one-third of the time. His fastball velocity has dropped from an average of 96.3 mph in 2007 to 92.1 mph in 2015. But if located properly, it’s still an effective pitch because of its natural movement. The pitch occasionally will cut toward left-handed hitters.
Whiff rate 7.63%
Balls in play 19.38%
Balls 35.31%
Strikes 25.81%
Strikeouts 28%
Batting average against .230
Slugging percentage .352
Sinker
Hernandez calls it his sinker, and it does have strong sinking motion. It’s a favorite pitch for situations in which he needs a ground ball. He also uses it to pitch to contact and keep his pitch count low.
Whiff rate 5.57%
Balls in play 21.30%
Balls 33.74%
Strikes 26.18%
Strikeouts 11%
Batting average against .299
Slugging percentage .429
Changeup
Latin players refer to it as “cambio,” and it is his best pitch. Unlike many pitchers, Hernandez throws his changeup nearly as hard as a fastball in terms of velocity. But his arm speed and the pitch’s sinking motion leave hitters guessing. It’s his best pitch for getting a swing and a miss with two strikes.
Whiff rate 20.31%
Balls in play 17.58%
Balls 34.90%
Strikes 28.47%
Strikeouts 39%
Batting average against .163
Slugging percentage .241
Slider
Hernandez throws this breaking pitch harder and with sharper break than his curveball. He likes to get some depth with the pitch and looks for swings and misses.
Whiff rate 20.73%
Balls in play 14.41%
Balls 35.74%
Strikes 37.07%
Strikeouts 35%
Batting average against .230
Slugging percentage .350
Curveball
It’s a pitch Hernandez grew more comfortable with during the 2015 season. He used it more than his other secondary pitches last year. It’s his slowest pitch and it changes eye level with its big, 12-to-6 break.
Whiff rate 12.62%
Balls in play 11.86%
Balls 28.84%
Strikes 36.23%
Strikeouts 35%
Batting average against .200
Slugging percentage .270
Source: Brooks Baseball, MLB
And yet? When the velocity dimenished, so did his production. Yet you want to pretend he was the same. He didn't want to be a Pitcher. There have been tons of reports on how hard he "worked" at becoming a different Pitcher. He had no interest. I'm not saying it would be easy, because it would be extremely difficult. But to pretend that it was his location and not loss of Velo? He probably had the same location as before, just couldn't throw it by anyone. You can work on location....why is it that as he lost velo he also couldn't locate?Donn Beach wrote: ↑Tue Aug 19, 2025 5:58 pm\
Yeah, his velocity was diminishing, and this is what he was doing to compensate, he was in fact a pitcher. Sorry but i am going to speak up when the narrative that felix wasn't interested in pitching gets tossed out, I think its disrespectful to the man. He was trying to compensate, I think the deterioration affected his location as well as his velocity
this is from 2015Fastball
Once his primary weapon, Hernandez now throws it less than one-third of the time. His fastball velocity has dropped from an average of 96.3 mph in 2007 to 92.1 mph in 2015. But if located properly, it’s still an effective pitch because of its natural movement. The pitch occasionally will cut toward left-handed hitters.
Whiff rate 7.63%
Balls in play 19.38%
Balls 35.31%
Strikes 25.81%
Strikeouts 28%
Batting average against .230
Slugging percentage .352
Sinker
Hernandez calls it his sinker, and it does have strong sinking motion. It’s a favorite pitch for situations in which he needs a ground ball. He also uses it to pitch to contact and keep his pitch count low.
Whiff rate 5.57%
Balls in play 21.30%
Balls 33.74%
Strikes 26.18%
Strikeouts 11%
Batting average against .299
Slugging percentage .429
Changeup
Latin players refer to it as “cambio,” and it is his best pitch. Unlike many pitchers, Hernandez throws his changeup nearly as hard as a fastball in terms of velocity. But his arm speed and the pitch’s sinking motion leave hitters guessing. It’s his best pitch for getting a swing and a miss with two strikes.
Whiff rate 20.31%
Balls in play 17.58%
Balls 34.90%
Strikes 28.47%
Strikeouts 39%
Batting average against .163
Slugging percentage .241
Slider
Hernandez throws this breaking pitch harder and with sharper break than his curveball. He likes to get some depth with the pitch and looks for swings and misses.
Whiff rate 20.73%
Balls in play 14.41%
Balls 35.74%
Strikes 37.07%
Strikeouts 35%
Batting average against .230
Slugging percentage .350
Curveball
It’s a pitch Hernandez grew more comfortable with during the 2015 season. He used it more than his other secondary pitches last year. It’s his slowest pitch and it changes eye level with its big, 12-to-6 break.
Whiff rate 12.62%
Balls in play 11.86%
Balls 28.84%
Strikes 36.23%
Strikeouts 35%
Batting average against .200
Slugging percentage .270
Source: Brooks Baseball, MLB
similar to Felix. He started losing Velo on the FB and refused to admit it, and as his FB slowed, his changeup seemed to increase in velocity. Bad combo...and his pride would never let him become a Pitcher instead of someone who over powered hitters. Game over.
So Felix’s reported pitch velocities undershoot his perceived velocities. Batters see him throwing harder than he actually throws, by a small but significant margin, and though I can’t prove it I’m going to go ahead and assume that this works to Felix’s benefit. His stuff is already wicked. He also releases it closer to home plate than most pitchers do.
This shouldn’t be something that fluctuates much over time. It has to do with pitcher deliveries, and pitcher deliveries seldom change. Long story short, while Felix’s fastball velocity is down this year, it looks slower to us than it does to the hitters. He might be sitting at 90-93, but he might look like 91-94, or 92-95. With the movement. You know, the obscene sink and run movement that Felix is able to generate. Felix’s fastball is still a very good fastball. And the other pitches are all very good too.
