The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

DanielVogelbach
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by DanielVogelbach » Fri Oct 10, 2025 5:37 am

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 5:23 am

it would imply his decision to swing or not is pretty sound.
It just means he does well when he swings at the first pitch. It says nothing about his decision making process.

The entire decision to swing on the first pitch as a good or bad decision is a multi-layered complex question. Cano nearly always took the first pitch and was a good hitter. I think you have to at least offer at enough of them to keep them honest otherwise they could just always get ahead with a quick strike 1. But, I actually think a great hitter can kind of get away with that. Go ahead and take a look at one. See the delivery. Make him throw some pitches.

It's probably actually smart to mix it up. Sometimes make a conscience effort to be more aggressive, then other times try and watch more pitches and run pitch counts up. It's all part of the cat and mouse game. You can't be too predictable.

But the stat tells you none of that. You could get the exact same stats being very aggressive or very conservative.

DanielVogelbach
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by DanielVogelbach » Fri Oct 10, 2025 5:42 am

The stat also doesn't account for a swing and a miss am I wrong? Those are all tossed out. So, to summarize it

a) doesn't account for watching a good pitch go by on strike 1
b) doesn't account for swinging at a bad pitch on strike 1 unless you get out

I would say that total OPS tells you a lot more about decisions on first pitch than first pitch OPS does. First pitch OPS is a novelty stat.

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Donn Beach
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Oct 10, 2025 6:04 am

what difference does it make if he is letting a good pitch go by if he is hitting .376 on the ones that don't go by? I don't care if all he is doing is swinging at balls and letting every strike go by. I am not messing with it. Of course the nature of fans is to mess with it lol

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Donn Beach
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Oct 10, 2025 7:08 am

speaking of swing decisions, I had meant to post this article about Ben Williamson earlier, an analytical look at his offense. For all the debate about if he could manage to get stronger, here it says the issue isn't strength, its swing decisions. He is strong enough to drive a baseball, and its true he is good at making contact. The problem is he puts too many poorly hit balls into play by swinging out of the zone so often. He could be better off actually missing them and keeping at bats alive. He can crush strikes when he swings at them but he is basically a swinging slut. He needs to concentrate on swinging at pitches he can drive rather than trying to make contact with whatever the pitcher tosses
In any event, it turns out the extra contact Williamson is making is not good, and is actually making the situation worse. Because he puts so many of these balls in play, he’s getting a lot of weakly hit balls that end with outs rather than merely whiffing and ending up with a strike and living to fight another day. He’s getting an xBA of just .187 and an xSLG of a pathetic .212 on pitches outside the zone. To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcom, Ben Williamson was so preoccupied with whether he could make contact, he didn’t stop to think if he should.

Williamson is digging that hole deeper by not swinging at enough strikes, pitches he can and has been crushing, swinging at just 64.8% of pitches in the heart of the plate, compared to an MLB average of 72.1%. However, Williamson makes more contact than the average player. So when you look at it a different way, Williamson is making contact with 57.4% of pitches in the heart of the plate, which is in line with the league’s 59.1%. Thus, it’s more of a missed opportunity than it is a weakness. That’s another way of saying, there’s a lot of room to grow if he swung at more hitter’s pitches, especially since as noted above, the contact he makes on these pitches tends to be good contact.

But for now, the problem with his profile is that he’s gobbling up trash while avoiding cookies like he’s a rat on the Atkins Diet. This is basically the quantification of your observation that Williamson has looked lost at the plate lately. But it’s also a profile that suggests that he has a lot to gain simply by getting a better sense of the zone. Can he do that?
terms of fixing it, seems its not necessarily easy to fix. Its not something that tends to change a lot over a career. But we shall see, he is a hard worker

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2025/5/1 ... year-maybe

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desbcoach
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by desbcoach » Fri Oct 10, 2025 2:26 pm

I am hoping for the best but prepared to be Couged for this game with a broken heart

XpertDBA
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by XpertDBA » Fri Oct 10, 2025 2:36 pm

desbcoach wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 2:26 pm
I am hoping for the best but prepared to be Couged for this game with a broken heart
Now you really did it. Not putting the extra REALLY in the game thread title AND mentioning the Cougs. Are you trying to piss off the superstition Gods?

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:02 pm

The Mariners will win this easily. They have Scruball's number and several of the Mariner batters are due to break out. I'll bet anyone here $100 that the Ms win tonight.

There, now they'll have to overcome my jinx as well. :twisted:

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Donn Beach
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:21 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:02 pm
The Mariners will win this easily. They have Scruball's number and several of the Mariner batters are due to break out. I'll bet anyone here $100 that the Ms win tonight.

There, now they'll have to overcome my jinx as well. :twisted:
He certainly doesn't intimidate them, its not like facing a Rogers Clemens or Randy Johnson...there, have I jinxed it enough?


I am concerned about the BP, it not so much them performing badly but the Tigers can in fact hit and they have been facing those guys repeatedly now for days, I see them getting dialed in

Captain 97
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by Captain 97 » Fri Oct 10, 2025 4:08 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:21 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:02 pm
The Mariners will win this easily. They have Scruball's number and several of the Mariner batters are due to break out. I'll bet anyone here $100 that the Ms win tonight.

There, now they'll have to overcome my jinx as well. :twisted:
He certainly doesn't intimidate them, its not like facing a Rogers Clemens or Randy Johnson...there, have I jinxed it enough?


I am concerned about the BP, it not so much them performing badly but the Tigers can in fact hit and they have been facing those guys repeatedly now for days, I see them getting dialed in
I suspect that you are going to see Castillo come in and eat up the middle innings. If they have the lead I wouldn't be surprised to Speier and Munoz as the only relievers used.

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Donn Beach
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Re: The (REALLY) biggest game of the season Game Thread 10/10/25

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Oct 10, 2025 4:19 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 4:08 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:21 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Fri Oct 10, 2025 3:02 pm
The Mariners will win this easily. They have Scruball's number and several of the Mariner batters are due to break out. I'll bet anyone here $100 that the Ms win tonight.

There, now they'll have to overcome my jinx as well. :twisted:
He certainly doesn't intimidate them, its not like facing a Rogers Clemens or Randy Johnson...there, have I jinxed it enough?


I am concerned about the BP, it not so much them performing badly but the Tigers can in fact hit and they have been facing those guys repeatedly now for days, I see them getting dialed in
I suspect that you are going to see Castillo come in and eat up the middle innings. If they have the lead I wouldn't be surprised to Speier and Munoz as the only relievers used.
I was curious peoples opinions of that, do you approach this without any consideration for ALCS? Who your starter would be? Be interesting how Woo is feeling

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