Adding contact, and doing it cheaply. Off Szn Plan 1.0

[Lamda]

It was the extreme lack of contact that drove fans nuts during the postseason. The game 7 with Toronto - if we had just decent contact guys we have 6-7 runs in that game - at the very least 4 so we're still playing that game, lol. Guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs I think they said we were the worst in league at getting that guy in - why? Cause people weren't thinking hey I just gotta hit a fly ball to CF to get that guy in or even a lazy ground ball to 2nd - they were doing their impression of Casey at the Bat and giving big upper cut swings trying to hit the ball to the moon. That irritates me about our hitters as well - you see a 98 or 100 mph fb - you don't need to give the most violent swing you ever swung to hit it out - just put a quick/good swing on it and it will travel. That's why people want to see Randy/JP gone.
The frustration with Randy wasn't just the postseason but the last month leading up to it - he was just awful ever since he moved to the leadoff spot.

I like the trade idea for Duran - I floated that at the trade deadline - either way we need a legit leadoff bat next year.

[Captain 97]

Sad that most of the plans end up with the Mariners going downhill position-wise at several positions.
Suarez>Williamson
Polanco>Young, Rivas, Bliss or whoever
Naylor>Whoever they think can replace him
etc.

What it comes down to is that unless Stanton and Jerry want to make the team better by spending so money or by trading prospects for proven talent that can help them win now, the Mariners are likely to sink back into the middle of the pack. But the M's made money this year, so we are supposed to live the next 20 years reliving the glory days of 2025...

Suarez hit .189 in an M's uniform this season. I am not so sure that Williamson is a downgrade. He is a significant upgrade with the glove for sure.

[Michael K.]

Williamson slashed .253/.294/.310/.604

Geno's last year here, you know, the one where he had to go because he struck out too much? Just so we could bring him back at the deadline?

.232/.323/.391/.714

Yeah, pretty bad. Still better than Ben.

Geno's full season last year?

.228/.298/.526/.824 That's with the late season collapse while here. Not sure what makes anyone believe Ben is going to be even close to the presence at the plate other than just wanting to believe what they are being told by Jerry. Ben hit 1 dinger in 85 games! You want your every day 3rd Baseman to slug .310?

[D-train]

Sad that most of the plans end up with the Mariners going downhill position-wise at several positions.
Suarez>Williamson
Polanco>Young, Rivas, Bliss or whoever
Naylor>Whoever they think can replace him
etc.

What it comes down to is that unless Stanton and Jerry want to make the team better by spending so money or by trading prospects for proven talent that can help them win now, the Mariners are likely to sink back into the middle of the pack. But the M's made money this year, so we are supposed to live the next 20 years reliving the glory days of 2025...

Yep and everyone thinks of spending money is just spending in FA but when you trade for established players that almost always significantly increases payroll as well and that is why the almost never do it in the off season and wait until the deadline.

[D-train]

Williamson slashed .253/.294/.310/.604

Geno's last year here, you know, the one where he had to go because he struck out too much? Just so we could bring him back at the deadline?

.232/.323/.391/.714

Yeah, pretty bad. Still better than Ben.

Geno's full season last year?

.228/.298/.526/.824 That's with the late season collapse while here. Not sure what makes anyone believe Ben is going to be even close to the presence at the plate other than just wanting to believe what they are being told by Jerry. Ben hit 1 dinger in 85 games! You want your every day 3rd Baseman to slug .310?

They will hype up his post deadline PCL stats and roll with him at 3B imo.

[Michael K.]

Yep and everyone thinks of spending money is just spending in FA but when you trade for established players that almost always significantly increases payroll as well and that is why the almost never do it in the off season and wait until the deadline.

Which is what I expect to be repeated, and why I believe that at least two of Cole Young, Ben Williamson or Luke Raley will be in the lineup replacing Polanco (who moves to DH), Suarez and Naylor. There is a chance we resign both Polanco and Naylor, but that still, IMO, puts Young and Williamson in the lineup. The bottom gets much weaker, and all the talk about lineup length and keeping pressure on the opposing pitcher goes out the window. A bottom of the order of JP, Williamson and Young scares absolutely no one.

Maybe if they decide that they can incorporate some small ball? But even to play small ball with the bottom of the order, you need baserunners. I had a parent ask me once why I bunted more than the guy that I replaced. Funny thing is? I was on staff before as well, so had some context. I told them that first of all, we have better bunters and better athletes on this team. We also have less power. There were several times I watched a kid strike out and kicked myself for not bunting, but that kid was also third or fourth on the team in HRs.

I don't see a team of -

Julio
Cal
Naylor
Polanco
Randy
Canzone
Williamson
JP
Young

Being anywhere close to as good as the team we finished the season with. I love the idea that BPJ had of Schwarber, but doesn't that seem like a very un-Mariner thing to have happen? It's too early to give up, but my heart was broken when we lost, because I truely have no faith that Jerry is going to come into March with a starting 9 that is a WS contender, and expect him to save money and hope to add at the deadline. That has basically been the theory for the past, what, five years. Two playoff appearances later? Do we really look at the lineup I posted above as being a dramatic improvement from the first team that traded Gravey and missed the playoffs by a game?

[Captain 97]

Williamson slashed .253/.294/.310/.604

Geno's last year here, you know, the one where he had to go because he struck out too much? Just so we could bring him back at the deadline?

.232/.323/.391/.714

Yeah, pretty bad. Still better than Ben.

Geno's full season last year?

.228/.298/.526/.824 That's with the late season collapse while here. Not sure what makes anyone believe Ben is going to be even close to the presence at the plate other than just wanting to believe what they are being told by Jerry. Ben hit 1 dinger in 85 games! You want your every day 3rd Baseman to slug .310?

There is clearly a difference between hitting in Arizona and hitting at T-mobile park. Geno's OPS at Chase Field was 1.011. His OPS at T-mobile was .479. I don't see any reason to think that looking at his overall numbers from 2025 is relevant to how he would perform if he was in an M's uniform for a full year. Geno's last year here before they moved on was 3 years ago. He will be 35 next season. Its not reasonable to expect him to even return to that form. He's cooked its time to move on, especially with all the young infielders coming up.

Williamson should have at least incremental improvement with more experience and body maturation. He was on pace for a 2.4 WAR season over 162 games. He will be fine as a stop gap until Emmerson is ready.

[Seattle or Bust]

Williamson slashed .253/.294/.310/.604

Geno's last year here, you know, the one where he had to go because he struck out too much? Just so we could bring him back at the deadline?

.232/.323/.391/.714

Yeah, pretty bad. Still better than Ben.

Geno's full season last year?

.228/.298/.526/.824 That's with the late season collapse while here. Not sure what makes anyone believe Ben is going to be even close to the presence at the plate other than just wanting to believe what they are being told by Jerry. Ben hit 1 dinger in 85 games! You want your every day 3rd Baseman to slug .310?

There is clearly a difference between hitting in Arizona and hitting at T-mobile park. Geno's OPS at Chase Field was 1.011. His OPS at T-mobile was .479. I don't see any reason to think that looking at his overall numbers from 2025 is relevant to how he would perform if he was in an M's uniform for a full year. Geno's last year here before they moved on was 3 years ago. He will be 35 next season. Its not reasonable to expect him to even return to that form. He's cooked its time to move on, especially with all the young infielders coming up.

Williamson should have at least incremental improvement with more experience and body maturation. He was on pace for a 2.4 WAR season over 162 games. He will be fine as a stop gap until Emmerson is ready.

What sort of a team with WS aspirations accepts mediocrity as a stop gap in favor of hoping that a rookie will be ready?

[Captain 97]

Williamson slashed .253/.294/.310/.604

Geno's last year here, you know, the one where he had to go because he struck out too much? Just so we could bring him back at the deadline?

.232/.323/.391/.714

Yeah, pretty bad. Still better than Ben.

Geno's full season last year?

.228/.298/.526/.824 That's with the late season collapse while here. Not sure what makes anyone believe Ben is going to be even close to the presence at the plate other than just wanting to believe what they are being told by Jerry. Ben hit 1 dinger in 85 games! You want your every day 3rd Baseman to slug .310?

There is clearly a difference between hitting in Arizona and hitting at T-mobile park. Geno's OPS at Chase Field was 1.011. His OPS at T-mobile was .479. I don't see any reason to think that looking at his overall numbers from 2025 is relevant to how he would perform if he was in an M's uniform for a full year. Geno's last year here before they moved on was 3 years ago. He will be 35 next season. Its not reasonable to expect him to even return to that form. He's cooked its time to move on, especially with all the young infielders coming up.

Williamson should have at least incremental improvement with more experience and body maturation. He was on pace for a 2.4 WAR season over 162 games. He will be fine as a stop gap until Emmerson is ready.

What sort of a team with WS aspirations accepts mediocrity as a stop gap in favor of hoping that a rookie will be ready?

Teams that are spending their resources on other things. It's not like 3b is their only hole. They need a 1B, 2B, RF, DH and Relief Pitching. You might as well face the fact that they aren't going to pay what it takes to get an above average player at all of those spots. I am willing to put up with a 2 WAR 3rd baseman if it means we get better players at those other spots.

[D-train]

Yep and everyone thinks of spending money is just spending in FA but when you trade for established players that almost always significantly increases payroll as well and that is why the almost never do it in the off season and wait until the deadline.

Which is what I expect to be repeated, and why I believe that at least two of Cole Young, Ben Williamson or Luke Raley will be in the lineup replacing Polanco (who moves to DH), Suarez and Naylor. There is a chance we resign both Polanco and Naylor, but that still, IMO, puts Young and Williamson in the lineup. The bottom gets much weaker, and all the talk about lineup length and keeping pressure on the opposing pitcher goes out the window. A bottom of the order of JP, Williamson and Young scares absolutely no one.

Maybe if they decide that they can incorporate some small ball? But even to play small ball with the bottom of the order, you need baserunners. I had a parent ask me once why I bunted more than the guy that I replaced. Funny thing is? I was on staff before as well, so had some context. I told them that first of all, we have better bunters and better athletes on this team. We also have less power. There were several times I watched a kid strike out and kicked myself for not bunting, but that kid was also third or fourth on the team in HRs.

I don't see a team of -

Julio
Cal
Naylor
Polanco
Randy
Canzone
Williamson
JP
Young

Being anywhere close to as good as the team we finished the season with. I love the idea that BPJ had of Schwarber, but doesn't that seem like a very un-Mariner thing to have happen? It's too early to give up, but my heart was broken when we lost, because I truely have no faith that Jerry is going to come into March with a starting 9 that is a WS contender, and expect him to save money and hope to add at the deadline. That has basically been the theory for the past, what, five years. Two playoff appearances later? Do we really look at the lineup I posted above as being a dramatic improvement from the first team that traded Gravey and missed the playoffs by a game?

Great post brother. To borrow Naylor's nickname, absolute Naylz.....