Harmonious offseason plan

[D-train]

What risk does Okamoto carry other than he will be a rookie? He might have the highest floor of any Japanese position player EVER.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph

I saw a post that Murikami hit .105 on fastballs over 93mph. Not sure how credible but seems more credible then the guy with the 11% k rate. Who knows.

[D-train]

Would you consider Murakami instead?

I like the plan. I think the Rays would be willing to deal - but if we’re talking about a risky and untested move to deal with third base, I like the power that Murakami brings.

The past 8 seasons, Okamoto has average 35 HRs and this past season had an unreal K rate of only 11%. Murakami had a 27% K rate this past season.

In his career Murakami has hit and average of 39 HRs every 150 games. And word on the street he can't play 3B for shit so he will be a 1B/DH.

Also Murikami hit only .105 on fastballs over 93mph. So many red flags.

Besides no way Jerry goes there.

I think the appeal w. Murakami is that he's just 25. There's still some development in him and he's already shown insane raw power.

Ohtani was a little younger when he made the move, but he also had really high K rates in the Japanese league. Murakami is the better hitter at the time of posting and in his 2x best seasons his K rate was actually really good. He's also avg'd about 100 walks the last 4 seasons.

I'd rather the guy with the higher ceiling than the guy with a middling floor which I think Okamoto is. To me Okamoto is gonna be like Dae Ho.

First of all there is no way in hell we pay what it takes to get Murikami so what is the point of fawning over him. Second of all Dae Ho OPS was 100 points lower and he was 4 years older and he had almost double the K rate that Okamoto does. Assuming we sign Naylor, who is a better option at 3B than Okamoto at 3B. Your choices are Ben Williamson and Geno Suarez.

[D-train]

Murakami hand and amazing season at a 22 yo hitting 56 HRs and an 1.168 OPS but hasn't hit more than 33 since despite similar PAs in several seasons.

His HR rate was nuts last season but only 263 PAs.

[harmony]

What risk does Okamoto carry other than he will be a rookie? He might have the highest floor of any Japanese position player EVER.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph

From Just Baseball columnist Jay Staph:

There is some mixed feedback on how Okamoto has handled high velocity in NPB, leading to some potential concern regarding his ceiling in a harder-throwing league. I don’t see this being too much of an issue for him, though, as he’s posted a contact rate of 80% against fastballs 93 MPH or harder in NPB.

This even included a grand slam against one of Roki Sasaki’s 99 MPH heaters during a game in 2022.

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/landin ... ee-agency/

Scroll down for a discussion of the Mariners' potential entry into the Okamoto sweepstakes.

[Big_Maple]

Just for shits and giggle let’s throw Bregman into the mix. Here’s a quick summary of the 3, third base free agent's:

Alex Bregman: The highest floor and most complete player.

Career Metrics (MLB): Career .272 AVG / .365 OBP / .846 OPS with 209 HR and a massive 43.1 Career WAR (through 2025).

Defense/Value: Proven, elite Gold Glove third baseman. Commands the highest AAV (~$32M/year) for certainty, elite defense, and proven postseason success. Likely to demand 4 to 6 years.

Munetaka Murakami: The highest ceiling/highest risk power bat.

Career Metrics (NPB): Career .270 AVG / .394 OBP / .945 OPS with 246 HR in 892 games. Won the Triple Crown at age 22 (56 HR in 2022).

Risk/Value: Youngest player (Age 26) seeking the largest total contract ($180M-$200M) based on raw power. High 28%+ strikeout rate and defensive issues project him to 1B or DH, making his massive contract a significant financial gamble. Likely to demand 6 to 8+ years.

Kazuma Okamoto: The best value pick for a balanced approach.

Career Metrics (NPB): Career .277 AVG / .361 OBP / .521 SLG with 274 HR in his last 8 seasons. Notable for a very low K-rate (11-12%) for a power hitter.

Defense/Value: Significantly more affordable (~$64M-$85M). He is a 2x NPB Golden Glove winner and a more dependable defensive option than Murakami, offering a safer floor and better overall value relative to his cost. Likely to demand 4 to 5 years.


The ultimate decision for teams revolves around certainty vs. potential. Bregman provides elite, quantifiable, and proven MLB production across the board with a high Career WAR that justifies his high AAV.

Murakami is the costly bet on historic power and youth that could be game-changing, but his high-risk profile is tied to a steep price.

Okamoto is the most cost-effective and balanced option, offering disciplined power and the highest likelihood of successfully maintaining a defensive role at third base among the NPB imports.

I’m with harmony here - Okamoto makes the most sense.

[D-train]

What risk does Okamoto carry other than he will be a rookie? He might have the highest floor of any Japanese position player EVER.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph

From Just Baseball columnist Jay Staph:

There is some mixed feedback on how Okamoto has handled high velocity in NPB, leading to some potential concern regarding his ceiling in a harder-throwing league. I don’t see this being too much of an issue for him, though, as he’s posted a contact rate of 80% against fastballs 93 MPH or harder in NPB.

This even included a grand slam against one of Roki Sasaki’s 99 MPH heaters during a game in 2022.

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/landin ... ee-agency/

Scroll down for a discussion of the Mariners' potential entry into the Okamoto sweepstakes.

Great stuff. Thanks!

[Donn Beach]

What risk does Okamoto carry other than he will be a rookie? He might have the highest floor of any Japanese position player EVER.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph

I saw a post that Murikami hit .105 on fastballs over 93mph. Not sure how credible but seems more credible then the guy with the 11% k rate. Who knows.

I would be interested in some context, how other hitters have done in the past. Could be a common issue

[D-train]

What risk does Okamoto carry other than he will be a rookie? He might have the highest floor of any Japanese position player EVER.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph

From Just Baseball columnist Jay Staph:

There is some mixed feedback on how Okamoto has handled high velocity in NPB, leading to some potential concern regarding his ceiling in a harder-throwing league. I don’t see this being too much of an issue for him, though, as he’s posted a contact rate of 80% against fastballs 93 MPH or harder in NPB.

This even included a grand slam against one of Roki Sasaki’s 99 MPH heaters during a game in 2022.

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/landin ... ee-agency/

Scroll down for a discussion of the Mariners' potential entry into the Okamoto sweepstakes.

First I heard that he possibly has GG level Defense.

[harmony]

From Just Baseball columnist Jay Staph:

There is some mixed feedback on how Okamoto has handled high velocity in NPB, leading to some potential concern regarding his ceiling in a harder-throwing league. I don’t see this being too much of an issue for him, though, as he’s posted a contact rate of 80% against fastballs 93 MPH or harder in NPB.

This even included a grand slam against one of Roki Sasaki’s 99 MPH heaters during a game in 2022.

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/landin ... ee-agency/

Scroll down for a discussion of the Mariners' potential entry into the Okamoto sweepstakes.

First I heard that he possibly has GG level Defense.

Kazuma Okamoto has won three Golden Glove awards in Nippon Professional Baseball, two at third base (2021 and 2022) and one at first base (2024).This year Okamoto played roughly twice as many games at third base than at first base.

[GL_Storm]

I like Okamoto more than Murakami. I like the high level defense at third base and the low strikeout rate/high batting average.