Postmortem: Sea v Lambs - The One That Got Away

[maoling]

Great write-up, aurora, as always. I agree, the Lambs have more to worry about after this one than the Seahawks do. Those picks were no fun, but the Hawks otherwise owned them all day.

Heard any good horse jokes lately?

Sincerely,

Joan Deutsch
Seattle Times

[trharder]

You know who else had a bad game? Matthew Stafford. 53.6% Completions and 130 yards. How come nobody is talking about how he crumbles under pressure?

I'm no fanboy of Stafford. I still think Detroit got the better end of that trade, but
Stafford, in the face of a defense even better than his own, didn't shit the bed. He was handed short fields.
He had a lead and didn't need to take chances. Zero picks. Zero bed shitting.

I'm not a perpetrator of the Sam big-game narrative. I just have zero arguments against it, especially after this game.
I'm not saying Sam can't shake the narrative. I just fear he won't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_9Ab4AQVyU&t=325s

[Donn Beach]

I too think the big game narrative is over blown. Making a sweeping generalization on a couple of games is weak. Especially since the two games against the Ram's were entirely different. Last year he was running for his life sacked 9 times. You really going to put 9 sacks completely on him not being able to handle big games? That was the second time they played the Rams that year and even though they lost he played very well in the first game with a rating of 128.7 (his second highest of the season).

This game this year was a case of making some bad decisions and trying to do too much. 4 picks is absolutely disastrous no doubt but if you put those aside it's not like he shrunk up into a wimpering ball and became completely ineffective. a 66% completion rate and 279 yards is totally respectable against a top defensive team like the Rams. The only team that has more passing yards on them this season is Santa Clara. Jalen Hurts completed 65% for 226 yards against them. Daniel Jones was 72% for 248 yards.

You know who else had a bad game? Matthew Stafford. 53.6% Completions and 130 yards. How come nobody is talking about how he crumbles under pressure?

Thank you for the more elegant explanation. Yeah, you do not get to be a NFL qb by curling up in a fetal position when faced with a big game. It's an unlikely narrative

He didnt curl up in a fetal position. He shit the bed. Learn the difference.

Yeah , he shit the bed, that's the result. The issue is why isn't it? He chokes in big games, that's the narrative? Okay, what does that mean exactly. Is he nervous? Anxious? Scared?. What is it about a big game makes him shit the bed? Terms of this last one. If anything I can discern he seemed overly aggressive. He was forcing things, too many risks, is that choking? I think the Rams took advantage of it, that's what good teams do.

If anything maybe he didn't take the game seriously enough. He went into it expecting to get away with passes you're not going to with the Rams. He should have been more nervous not less nervous, been more cautious.

And how much of it is how kubiak has been driving the offense. How much control does Kubiak have to apply. They do turn the ball over a lot. I've brought it up before, for a supposedly defensively minded team that negative TO ratio is rather strange. That is a pretty big difference between the Rams and seahawks, TO ratio. And it played a big factor in the game.

[auroraave]

Great write-up, aurora, as always. I agree, the Lambs have more to worry about after this one than the Seahawks do. Those picks were no fun, but the Hawks otherwise owned them all day.

Heard any good horse jokes lately?

Sincerely,

Joan Deutsch
Seattle Times

Why did the horse cross the road?
To escape that Son of a Deutch Joan.
Oh, see what I did there???

Anyone remember the offending joke that got us banned? Mr. Chairman? DT?

[auroraave]

It's so amusing to watch all the extreme reactions to the micro - rather than people having a balanced take over the macro.
First 9 games: OMG - The Darnold is an MVP candidate!
One shitty game: OMG it's fucking Rick Mirer 2.0!
Captain Obvious: Um, he probably falls somewhere in the middle.
Every single turd in any kind of 'media' or sports platform: "But, but, but, only extreme and utterly ridiculous takes get clicks!!!!"

Darnold doesn't have to carry the team - no one is expecting him to. This team also showed they are better than the Lambs despite losing. LA had to play a perfect game - and the 4 int's allowed them to not take any chances.

I would also like to take a moment to apologize for mentioning Rick Mirer - I know that will result in plenty of PTSD around here.

[Michael K.]

Yeah , he shit the bed, that's the result. The issue is why isn't it? He chokes in big games, that's the narrative? Okay, what does that mean exactly. Is he nervous? Anxious? Scared?. What is it about a big game makes him shit the bed? Terms of this last one. If anything I can discern he seemed overly aggressive. He was forcing things, too many risks, is that choking? I think the Rams took advantage of it, that's what good teams do.

Why is the issue why? The issue is that he can't seem to correct it. They don't need him to be a world beater, they need him to be a lot like Russ in the early days. At least three of those picks were horrible decisions, one was on first down. Just dumb. The game speeds up and he tries to do too much. Who cares why? I don't understand your point. Again, he has choked in three or four of the last "Big" games he's played in. Detroit in week 17, Rams in the playoffs, 49ers in week 1 and LA again. Hell, as well as he played against Tampa? It was a pick that ended the game. Of course, if they don't call Milroe's number?

He needs to realize that we don't need to score on every play. He forces shit, always has. Who cares why, the issue is he can't seem to correct it. There is a narrative that he can't get it done in Big Games, and that is NOT because he has gotten it done in big games. Stafford just took the plays that were there, his team won and he is getting all kinds of praise....for basically doing very little.

If anything maybe he didn't take the game seriously enough. He went into it expecting to get away with passes you're not going to with the Rams. He should have been more nervous not less nervous, been more cautious.

You watched him play and thought "that is a guy that is way to relaxed"? Holy Shit Donn, that is overly contrarian...even for you.

And how much of it is how kubiak has been driving the offense. How much control does Kubiak have to apply. They do turn the ball over a lot. I've brought it up before, for a supposedly defensively minded team that negative TO ratio is rather strange. That is a pretty big difference between the Rams and seahawks, TO ratio. And it played a big factor in the game.

Did you see a lot of route concepts that seemed to be why he turned the ball over? Did you question the run versus pass ratio? Did you honestly watch those four picks and think "fuck Kubiak, why'd you call that play"? We have had many moments like that over the years, but as much as I complained about Kubiak, specifically after game one? I haven't seen much. As a matter of fact...I've looked at my son several times this year and commented how creative or well called a play was. I'm having a real difficult time assigning blame to Kubiak.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Hugh Millen seemed to think two of the interceptions (if i heard him correctly) came on plays where Bradford missed his blocking assignment and Darnold had to hurry a throw under duress as a result. That is what i was getting at with how stuff like one player not holding his block or at least slowing down the pass rusher can cost you games and why i was so adamant about upgrading RG before the trade period ended.

[Michael K.]

Hugh Millen seemed to think two of the interceptions (if i heard him correctly) came on plays where Bradford missed his blocking assignment and Darnold had to hurry a throw under duress as a result. That is what i was getting at with how stuff like one player not holding his block or at least slowing down the pass rusher can cost you games and why i was so adamant about upgrading RG before the trade period ended.

And if it was Williams or Murphy getting in Stafford's face? We'd be pumped about our D Line. LA is good, there is going to be pressure. Throw the fucking ball away, don't force it. Listening to Millen is sometimes like listening to Schlereth. They get it in their heads that the position they played is so incredibly difficult, that it can't be that guys fault. Jesus Christ, you mean an NFL QB was under pressure? Stop the presses and let's have a news release. Ask Geno about pressure.

NFL QBs need to deal with pressure, it's going to happen. You are making the point that Darnold can't deal with big moments. He gets a little pressure and he decides the best option is to throw it to the other team? I'm not down on Darnold, but the more excuses people make for why he throws picks? The less faith I have in him. Give him a completely clean pocket and wide open WRs and he is fine.

HORRIBLE decisions on throwing the football three different times. LA started four drives inside of our territory, and I believe two of those were in the Red Zone. Three of those drives resulted in TDs. What was the final score again? You want to blame Bradford because Darnold takes risks under pressure? Go for it, but if that is the case? We'd better start looking for another QB, because you can't lead the NFL in turnovers and then blame your Right Fucking Guard.

[Michael K.]

PFF has us tied for 20th in O Line with Texas. But I don't think that tells the entire story. Philly is 16th. They are a whopping 1.1 points ahead of our 69.8 grade. When is the last time someone talked about Philly's O Line and wasn't gushing about it? The Niners at 14 are only 3.2 points ahead of us. Again, everyone loves the 9ers O line. The Dolphins are 11th! Who has watched the Dolphins play and been envious of their offense? The Lions are tenth at 76.3. Oh, the Rams? Who we did a great job of pressuring and shut them down for three quarters? 81.9 and 5th in the NFL.

The Chicago Bears are 1st at 89.6. Do I watch the Bears a lot? No, but everytime I do? Williams is doing a magic act to escape pressure. I'm just not sold on these rankings.

But? If this is the be all end all? Look for Kubiak to get a Head Job soon, because he must be a fucking genius to work with such scarps up front.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best ... -rankings/

So? I went to ESPN and looked. Pass Block Win Rate? 67%, good for 7th in the NFL. Run Block Win Rate? 73% and good for 8th. So they win their blocking assignment enough times to make them 7th and 8th in the NFL, but PFF has them 20th because they have a bunch of ex insurance salesman watching tape and grading shit they have no clue about?

I found a metric I like, so I am now going to go on a cruisade for ESPN blocking win rate and boycott PFF.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/461 ... lock#teams

Sorry, the eye test tells me Darnold is far better than Geno and this line is LIGHT YEARS better than last year's.

Edit. ESPN does have the Bears at 2 and 5! But the Dolphins? 23 and 27. Philly? 19 and 10. The Niners at 18 and 19.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

What i am saying is that with an average RG there's a good chance Darnold throws two less picks because he doesn't hurry the throw and try to force it in to a covered receiver. But yeah, i'm trying to make excuses for the guy i've referred to as a turnover machine going back to the signing. He should have thrown it away but he just can't help himself, so that's why you need 5 lineman that can pass protectat least at a low end starter or high end backup level.