Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

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Donn Beach
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by Donn Beach » Mon Nov 24, 2025 5:57 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 5:12 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 4:43 pm
I think its a series of contingency plans. I'm saying he's taking calls, it's got to be an interesting proposal for Castillo to begin with. He isn't just giving him away. And he isn't going to have to find a Castillo replacement. The replacement for Castillo is already on the team. What he's going to need to find is more depth as opposed to a replacement. And he'd have various different possibilities for how to do it.

Okay, if Castillo isn't the most likely MLer to get traded then who is in your mind? I had been thinking Miller but now I'd say Castillo. Terms of dipotos chips, that's his hottest. Its not his most valuable but it plays on multiple levels. Castillo has value, he's become more liquid without the no trade clause. Dipoto would be playing from a position of strength, their pitching depth and he can get out from under the contract obligation.
You are replacing Castillo with Evans? That is quite a downgrade. 2.1 WAR 3.54 ERA 1.19 WHIP vs -0.1 WAR 4.32 ERA and 1.39 WHIP

Raley is the most likely MLer to be thrown into a trade.
I'm saying wherever you happen to have Castillo slotted in the rotation dipoto will replace him with the guy below him. Then your bringing in a guy to add to the rotation. Your rotation is going to be Woo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and the new guy slotted somewhere in the middle. Castillo isn't at the top of the rotation and neither will be the addition. Im not doing it, dipoto is

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:37 pm

You are replacing Castillo, not his spot in the rotation, and you need to do it with someone not on the roster or the rotation will be weaker as a whole. That will require another trade or signing. Won't be a part of the Castillo trade obviously.
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by Donn Beach » Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:59 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:37 pm
You are replacing Castillo, not his spot in the rotation, and you need to do it with someone not on the roster or the rotation will be weaker as a whole. That will require another trade or signing. Won't be a part of the Castillo trade obviously.
I've already addressed it. Dipoto could trade Castillo for another pierce and then turn around and add an arm to the rotation. Whether or not that piece is an actual equivalent to Castillo could be open for debate. It wouldn't be some scrub but it wouldmt be Skubal either. That to me is a realistic possibity. I think he could take advantage of the opportunity to move Castillo while keeping the rotation at this past seasons value more or less. He could also point at improving current players to get there. He needs to get something out of the Castillo trade. He could add some other piece. But he isn't going to be improving the rotation. I suppose it comes down to adding up war

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 24, 2025 7:06 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:59 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:37 pm
You are replacing Castillo, not his spot in the rotation, and you need to do it with someone not on the roster or the rotation will be weaker as a whole. That will require another trade or signing. Won't be a part of the Castillo trade obviously.
I've already addressed it. Dipoto could trade Castillo for another pierce and then turn around and add an arm to the rotation. Whether or not that piece is an actual equivalent to Castillo could be open for debate. It wouldn't be some scrub but it wouldmt be Skubal either. That to me is a realistic possibity. I think he could take advantage of the opportunity to move Castillo while keeping the rotation at this past seasons value more or less. He could also point at improving current players to get there. He needs to get something out of the Castillo trade. He could add some other piece. But he isn't going to be improving the rotation. I suppose it comes down to adding up war
Well that Gore trade would come with a very slightly higher WAR projection but it would be worth all those moves for a slight incremental improvement unless you use the money for an impact bat. Their plan failed miserably at doing that.

I would say the odds of a Skubal trade to us or a Castillo trade are about the same. 10%
dt

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GL_Storm
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by GL_Storm » Mon Nov 24, 2025 7:10 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 4:01 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 3:40 pm
Castillo trade only makes sense IF they use the funds to trade for an impact bat like Marte AND replace him in the rotation with a comparable or better pitcher and they don't have that internally YET. So basically you would have to trade for Skubal and Marte AND find a taker for Castillo. Yeah that is a lot and you risk everything going off the rails if one of those deals fall through.
This is where I disagree, I think the decision to move Castillo would turn more on their overall attitude terms of carrying the rest of the contract than another particular move this season. My feeling is your going to need to pull the trigger on the Castillo trade and then see where you might be able to apply the savings. Or maybe decide to take on Ketels contract and then look to move Castillo. I think you need to be prepared to live with either move without the other happening. It begin with them being comfortable moving Castillo's contract
I think this is right. Moving the contract on it's own could make sense simply as risk management. You may think that there are other moves you can make to fill that hole, but unless you turn that deal into a 3-team trade to bring in a replacement, you have to be comfortable making that move in isolation and opening up that rotation spot to Hancock or Evans.

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 24, 2025 7:41 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 7:10 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 4:01 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 3:40 pm
Castillo trade only makes sense IF they use the funds to trade for an impact bat like Marte AND replace him in the rotation with a comparable or better pitcher and they don't have that internally YET. So basically you would have to trade for Skubal and Marte AND find a taker for Castillo. Yeah that is a lot and you risk everything going off the rails if one of those deals fall through.
This is where I disagree, I think the decision to move Castillo would turn more on their overall attitude terms of carrying the rest of the contract than another particular move this season. My feeling is your going to need to pull the trigger on the Castillo trade and then see where you might be able to apply the savings. Or maybe decide to take on Ketels contract and then look to move Castillo. I think you need to be prepared to live with either move without the other happening. It begin with them being comfortable moving Castillo's contract
I think this is right. Moving the contract on it's own could make sense simply as risk management. You may think that there are other moves you can make to fill that hole, but unless you turn that deal into a 3-team trade to bring in a replacement, you have to be comfortable making that move in isolation and opening up that rotation spot to Hancock or Evans.
I agree I would be shocked if he is comfortable doing that given his comments in 2024 and after the Naylor signing. Neither of those two are good options even a #5 starters.
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Seattle or Bust
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by Seattle or Bust » Mon Nov 24, 2025 8:21 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 7:06 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:59 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:37 pm
You are replacing Castillo, not his spot in the rotation, and you need to do it with someone not on the roster or the rotation will be weaker as a whole. That will require another trade or signing. Won't be a part of the Castillo trade obviously.
I've already addressed it. Dipoto could trade Castillo for another pierce and then turn around and add an arm to the rotation. Whether or not that piece is an actual equivalent to Castillo could be open for debate. It wouldn't be some scrub but it wouldmt be Skubal either. That to me is a realistic possibity. I think he could take advantage of the opportunity to move Castillo while keeping the rotation at this past seasons value more or less. He could also point at improving current players to get there. He needs to get something out of the Castillo trade. He could add some other piece. But he isn't going to be improving the rotation. I suppose it comes down to adding up war
Well that Gore trade would come with a very slightly higher WAR projection but it would be worth all those moves for a slight incremental improvement unless you use the money for an impact bat. Their plan failed miserably at doing that.

I would say the odds of a Skubal trade to us or a Castillo trade are about the same. 10%
A trade for Gore would probably mean they think they're tapping into some unrealized potential. He was a top 5 prospect in baseball.

Skubal followed a similar trajectory. Lots of injuries... struggles with command his first 4 years... then boom... turned 27 and won 2x straight Cy Youngs.

Not saying Gore does that... but he's got some really good seasons in the tank he probably hasn't realized yet.

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 24, 2025 8:33 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 8:21 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 7:06 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:59 pm


I've already addressed it. Dipoto could trade Castillo for another pierce and then turn around and add an arm to the rotation. Whether or not that piece is an actual equivalent to Castillo could be open for debate. It wouldn't be some scrub but it wouldmt be Skubal either. That to me is a realistic possibity. I think he could take advantage of the opportunity to move Castillo while keeping the rotation at this past seasons value more or less. He could also point at improving current players to get there. He needs to get something out of the Castillo trade. He could add some other piece. But he isn't going to be improving the rotation. I suppose it comes down to adding up war
Well that Gore trade would come with a very slightly higher WAR projection but it would be worth all those moves for a slight incremental improvement unless you use the money for an impact bat. Their plan failed miserably at doing that.

I would say the odds of a Skubal trade to us or a Castillo trade are about the same. 10%
A trade for Gore would probably mean they think they're tapping into some unrealized potential. He was a top 5 prospect in baseball.

Skubal followed a similar trajectory. Lots of injuries... struggles with command his first 4 years... then boom... turned 27 and won 2x straight Cy Youngs.

Not saying Gore does that... but he's got some really good seasons in the tank he probably hasn't realized yet.
Sure I would be good with him for sure but you would be saving $18M and you only need $6 of it for Donovan so used the other $12 for Yandy or all $18 of it for Marte. Not on freakin Mitch Garver, Willi Castro and the Horrible Herrin BP arm.
dt

Captain 97
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by Captain 97 » Mon Nov 24, 2025 10:19 pm

I think you guys are massively overestimating the market for Castillo. He is about to turn 33. He has lost velo. He has been only slightly better than League average over the past two seasons with a 104 OPS+. He is terrible away from T-mobile park. 4.71 ERA and a 1.456 Whip in 2025. I don't think anyone takes on that contract. I think your going to have to eat close to half of it if you want to move him.

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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Mon Nov 24, 2025 11:03 pm

Captain 97 wrote:
Mon Nov 24, 2025 10:19 pm
I think you guys are massively overestimating the market for Castillo. He is about to turn 33. He has lost velo. He has been only slightly better than League average over the past two seasons with a 104 OPS+. He is terrible away from T-mobile park. 4.71 ERA and a 1.456 Whip in 2025. I don't think anyone takes on that contract. I think your going to have to eat close to half of it if you want to move him.
I am thinking of it purely as a salary dump and you would have to send significant prospects for the other team to consider paying all of his salary. He isn't part of my off season plan.
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