Fair warning to all of you fans.

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D-train
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by D-train » Thu Dec 04, 2025 8:36 pm

DavidGee24 wrote:
Thu Dec 04, 2025 8:29 pm
D-train wrote:
Tue Dec 02, 2025 10:27 pm
DavidGee24 wrote:
Tue Dec 02, 2025 7:14 pm


Interesting situation with those two. Robles had a big second half in 2024, Canzone had a big second half in 2025. Robles had an awful 2025 (to be fair, that injury probably messed up his season). Both of them were black holes in the postseason.

Hopefully they can be at least close to what they've shown us and didn't sell us a big bill of goods. I do think that at least Canzone will have a strong 2026.
And Raley repeats his 2023 or 2024.
That's a hard sell considering how awful he was this year. With him and Robles one would like to sum it up to injury, but they had to be healthy when they did play...right? I mean, one would like to think that management didn't say well these guys seem to be at about 75%, put 'em out there!
Yeah I agree for the most part but they had to start over. Also, the same could be said of Polanco and his 2024 but he proved me wrong. Believe me I would rather have Kyle Tucker in RF but we know that isn't happening.
dt

Michael K.
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by Michael K. » Fri Dec 05, 2025 12:51 am

D-train wrote:
Thu Dec 04, 2025 4:13 pm

lol that is quite the prediction given a 90% chance Ben will be in AAA.

Dom hit .300 with a .840 OPS and 1.5 fWAR in 268 PAs (3.4 fWAR/600)

Ben hit .253 with a .604 OPS and 0.4 fWAR in 295 PAs (.8 fWAR/600)
It's just hard to forget pretty much every playoff plate appearance where he looked like a Junior High kid facing Prime Randy Johnson! It was real bad. The moment was WAY too big for him.

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D-train
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by D-train » Fri Dec 05, 2025 1:11 am

Michael K. wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 12:51 am
D-train wrote:
Thu Dec 04, 2025 4:13 pm

lol that is quite the prediction given a 90% chance Ben will be in AAA.

Dom hit .300 with a .840 OPS and 1.5 fWAR in 268 PAs (3.4 fWAR/600)

Ben hit .253 with a .604 OPS and 0.4 fWAR in 295 PAs (.8 fWAR/600)
It's just hard to forget pretty much every playoff plate appearance where he looked like a Junior High kid facing Prime Randy Johnson! It was real bad. The moment was WAY too big for him.
The Toronto Blue Jays primarily exploited Dominic Canzone's weakness to pitches low and/or away during their 2025 ALCS series against the Seattle Mariners.
Canzone's Weakness: A Defined Strike Zone
Despite a highly productive 2025 regular season where Canzone was one of the league's top hitters in his hot zone, he was described as average or worse on pitches outside of it. The Blue Jays (and the Detroit Tigers in an earlier playoff round) targeted this vulnerability by consistently pitching him outside the strike zone, especially low and away.
Blue Jays' Strategy and Results
This pitching strategy was effective. Canzone struggled in the postseason, going just 3-for-27 during the playoffs, a performance that led to his absence from the Mariners' starting lineup in the decisive Game 7 of the ALCS.
Key aspects of the strategy included:
Targeting the Edges: Pitches that ended Canzone's at-bats were frequently located low and/or away.
Limiting Walks: Canzone has historically swung at many pitches both in and out of the zone, and the Blue Jays capitalized on this aggressive approach, limiting his walks.
Strategic Lineup Decisions: The Mariners ultimately benched Canzone for Game 7 against a right-handed pitcher, a testament to the Blue Jays' success in neutralizing his offensive impact.
By focusing on these specific areas, the Blue Jays were able to effectively shut down one of the Mariners' key hitters during the crucial playoff series.
dt

Michael K.
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by Michael K. » Fri Dec 05, 2025 6:17 pm

So, is that good or bad? He can't hit low and away, so if you throw him there he looks like a junior high kid? That doesn't make me feel any better. Throwing low and away is not hard. It's not like his weakness isn't exploitable....every hitter has them, but when you have one that makes you look like he did? It's not like the entire league doesn't have that same scouting report.

Maybe he recognizes his weakness and fixes it, but if it was that easy? I mean, do you think that after the Blue Jay series was the first time someone said "hey dude, you should get better at hitting the ball down and away because that is were guys are getting you out."

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GL_Storm
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:01 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 6:17 pm
So, is that good or bad? He can't hit low and away, so if you throw him there he looks like a junior high kid? That doesn't make me feel any better. Throwing low and away is not hard. It's not like his weakness isn't exploitable....every hitter has them, but when you have one that makes you look like he did? It's not like the entire league doesn't have that same scouting report.

Maybe he recognizes his weakness and fixes it, but if it was that easy? I mean, do you think that after the Blue Jay series was the first time someone said "hey dude, you should get better at hitting the ball down and away because that is were guys are getting you out."
That's the adjustment that Canzone needs to make over the offseason and going into spring. He'll either do it or he won't.

Michael K.
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by Michael K. » Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:42 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:01 pm

That's the adjustment that Canzone needs to make over the offseason and going into spring. He'll either do it or he won't.
I get that, but I also have a hard time believing that October of last year was the first time someone saw this as his weakness.

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GL_Storm
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:55 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:42 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:01 pm

That's the adjustment that Canzone needs to make over the offseason and going into spring. He'll either do it or he won't.
I get that, but I also have a hard time believing that October of last year was the first time someone saw this as his weakness.
I'm looking at his zone charts and to be honest I don't see a particular weakness low and away. Now that's for the regular season and it's for all pitchers and all pitches. It might be worth looking through the postseason matchups to see what they got him with.

Michael K.
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by Michael K. » Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:04 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:55 pm

I'm looking at his zone charts and to be honest I don't see a particular weakness low and away. Now that's for the regular season and it's for all pitchers and all pitches. It might be worth looking through the postseason matchups to see what they got him with.
Isn't that what DT posted above? Did he all of a sudden become unable to hit the ball down and away? That isn't what I felt was implied.

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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by D-train » Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:09 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:04 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:55 pm

I'm looking at his zone charts and to be honest I don't see a particular weakness low and away. Now that's for the regular season and it's for all pitchers and all pitches. It might be worth looking through the postseason matchups to see what they got him with.
Isn't that what DT posted above? Did he all of a sudden become unable to hit the ball down and away? That isn't what I felt was implied.
Yeah I agree that it is weird. Maybe since it was the ALCS they did a much deeper dive on every hitter than the regular season. Who knows. But he clearly needs to fix it. I am sure a few other teams watched the ALCS and took not of his flailing failings.
dt

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GL_Storm
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Re: Fair warning to all of you fans.

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:33 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:09 pm
Michael K. wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 8:04 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Dec 05, 2025 7:55 pm

I'm looking at his zone charts and to be honest I don't see a particular weakness low and away. Now that's for the regular season and it's for all pitchers and all pitches. It might be worth looking through the postseason matchups to see what they got him with.
Isn't that what DT posted above? Did he all of a sudden become unable to hit the ball down and away? That isn't what I felt was implied.
Yeah I agree that it is weird. Maybe since it was the ALCS they did a much deeper dive on every hitter than the regular season. Who knows. But he clearly needs to fix it. I am sure a few other teams watched the ALCS and took not of his flailing failings.
They probably got him on particular pitch types and maybe even on particular sequences of pitches. This is part of the analytics game now.

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