The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Pharmabro
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by Pharmabro » Sun Jan 18, 2026 4:29 am

D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 1:14 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 1:09 am
I think owners will push hard for a cap but may not be willing to go far enough to get it, and as a consequence we could wind up losing most or even all of the 2027 season.
What is going far enough to get it??? 2 seasons? 3? 5???
Maybe they can do a floor and just increase the lux tax?

But these high end salaries just took a huge bump up. For about 20 years it was basically the Arod deal was about the max. AAV Now 60M to Tucker, 42M for Bo, 765M for Soto, 700M for Ohtani. That is a crazy jump up in terms of how much the top guys make.

Mesully11
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by Mesully11 » Sun Jan 18, 2026 3:02 pm

These big salaries also cause salary inflation for smaller market teams.
The low spending teams are playing catch up and the price of doing business keeps going up for them.
The dodgers are now spending 4 times as more than several teams and more than twice as much as the Mariners, and there appears to be no end in sight.

I don't think it is sustainable for a lot of teams who don't appear to have a way to win in that environment.
Baseball used to be the national pastime but the NFL has taken that title away.

Big_Maple
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by Big_Maple » Sun Jan 18, 2026 5:47 pm

Pharmabro wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 4:29 am
D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 1:14 am
GL_Storm wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 1:09 am
I think owners will push hard for a cap but may not be willing to go far enough to get it, and as a consequence we could wind up losing most or even all of the 2027 season.
What is going far enough to get it??? 2 seasons? 3? 5???
Maybe they can do a floor and just increase the lux tax?

But these high end salaries just took a huge bump up. For about 20 years it was basically the Arod deal was about the max. AAV Now 60M to Tucker, 42M for Bo, 765M for Soto, 700M for Ohtani. That is a crazy jump up in terms of how much the top guys make.
Agree with all of this. This is unsustainable.

Floor. Cap/ceiling. Stiff penalties for exceeding the cap and close loopholes like Ohtani’s deferred contract.

The popularity if the sport is waning and viewership has plummeted. These bloated contracts for the top 1% of pro ball guys is great for them, but this kind of spending is going to doom the sport. Why would you ever become a fan of a small market team like the Rockies or White Sox or Marlins? What’s the point? Unless you just like sitting in the sun and munching on peanuts, there is literally no reason to get excited about your team, and zero chance they will win a World Series. Fans will eventually figure out that you can sit in the sun and drink $14 pilsners without paying $75 just to get into the bar.

Baseball needs to save itself from itself.

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bpj
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by bpj » Sun Jan 18, 2026 7:37 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 5:47 pm
Pharmabro wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 4:29 am
D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 1:14 am


What is going far enough to get it??? 2 seasons? 3? 5???
Maybe they can do a floor and just increase the lux tax?

But these high end salaries just took a huge bump up. For about 20 years it was basically the Arod deal was about the max. AAV Now 60M to Tucker, 42M for Bo, 765M for Soto, 700M for Ohtani. That is a crazy jump up in terms of how much the top guys make.
Agree with all of this. This is unsustainable.

Floor. Cap/ceiling. Stiff penalties for exceeding the cap and close loopholes like Ohtani’s deferred contract.

The popularity if the sport is waning and viewership has plummeted. These bloated contracts for the top 1% of pro ball guys is great for them, but this kind of spending is going to doom the sport. Why would you ever become a fan of a small market team like the Rockies or White Sox or Marlins? What’s the point? Unless you just like sitting in the sun and munching on peanuts, there is literally no reason to get excited about your team, and zero chance they will win a World Series. Fans will eventually figure out that you can sit in the sun and drink $14 pilsners without paying $75 just to get into the bar.

Baseball needs to save itself from itself.
I hadn't heard this about the plummeting interest, and hearing so surprised me.

Maybe you just said it to get an emotional point across about the small market teams. Or maybe you just mean viewership of those small market teams. But I asked Grok about viewership and it paints a different picture.

The sport seems healthy and the teams seem to consistently bring in yearly profits and especially longterm franchise value.

The idea of Ohtani getting close to a billion, or Bo Bichette getting $42M per year blows my mind. But the alternative is just the owners pocketing the cash instead isnt it? Or I guess pricing the small market teams out?
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GL_Storm
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by GL_Storm » Sun Jan 18, 2026 7:43 pm

I saw something in the last week saying the baseball and major league soccer were at about the same level of popularity? I don't have the source so I don't know what the methodology used was.

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D-train
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 18, 2026 8:22 pm

Big_Maple wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 5:47 pm
Pharmabro wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 4:29 am
D-train wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 1:14 am


What is going far enough to get it??? 2 seasons? 3? 5???
Maybe they can do a floor and just increase the lux tax?

But these high end salaries just took a huge bump up. For about 20 years it was basically the Arod deal was about the max. AAV Now 60M to Tucker, 42M for Bo, 765M for Soto, 700M for Ohtani. That is a crazy jump up in terms of how much the top guys make.
Agree with all of this. This is unsustainable.

Floor. Cap/ceiling. Stiff penalties for exceeding the cap and close loopholes like Ohtani’s deferred contract.

The popularity if the sport is waning and viewership has plummeted. These bloated contracts for the top 1% of pro ball guys is great for them, but this kind of spending is going to doom the sport. Why would you ever become a fan of a small market team like the Rockies or White Sox or Marlins? What’s the point? Unless you just like sitting in the sun and munching on peanuts, there is literally no reason to get excited about your team, and zero chance they will win a World Series. Fans will eventually figure out that you can sit in the sun and drink $14 pilsners without paying $75 just to get into the bar.
Baseball needs to save itself from itself.
Are ya sure about that??? :lol: :lol: :lol: Come on man there is literally zero evidence of this doom and gloom chicken little prognostication. MLB is literally booming.
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D-train
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by D-train » Sun Jan 18, 2026 8:39 pm

GL_Storm wrote:
Sun Jan 18, 2026 7:43 pm
I saw something in the last week saying the baseball and major league soccer were at about the same level of popularity? I don't have the source so I don't know what the methodology used was.
Are you guys aware of Google and AI? Crazy to me to post blatantly false information without taking 7 seconds to fact check it. MLB revenues are $12B and MLS revenues are $2B.

The World Series had 34 million viewers and the MLS cup had 4 million.

Not about the same. lol
dt

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GL_Storm
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Re: The official Hot Stove League Thread 2025-26 Offseason

Post by GL_Storm » Sun Jan 18, 2026 8:53 pm

From The Economist.

America is now the biggest market for international football
Europeans may scoff, but it’s all about the soccer

Nov 12th 2025

3 min read
By Tom Wainwright, Media editor, The Economist
The last time America hosted a men’s World Cup, in 1994, purists sniffed that it was not a proper footballing country. They had a point. Team USA had only recently ended a four-decade stretch of failing to qualify for the tournament. In an unfortunately symbolic moment broadcast around the world, Diana Ross, singing at the ritzy opening ceremony, took a staged penalty kick and somehow missed.

As America prepares to co-host the competition again in 2026, along with Canada and Mexico, things look different. Its men’s team has improved (though they are still 80-1 outsiders to lift the golden trophy in the summer). Its women’s squad has become the most successful in the world, notching up four World Cup wins in the past 35 years.

The big change, however, has taken place among the fans. Football—all right, soccer—still trails behind American football, basketball and baseball as the country’s fourth-most followed sport, according to surveys by Ampere Analysis, a research firm. But when asked which sport is their absolute favourite, 10% of Americans now say soccer, making it narrowly more popular than the sport sometimes referred to as the national pastime, baseball (see chart).

Market values reflect this growing popularity. Spending on football media rights in America has risen four-fold in the past decade and is now greater than the amount spent on baseball rights, notes Daniel Monaghan of Ampere. He points out that, whereas America’s baseball fans focus on a single league, Major League Baseball, its football fans pay to watch everything from the English Premier League to Spain’s La Liga, driving up the sport’s total value.

MLS remains a dull watch, despite its sprinkling of foreign mega-stars

America has become the biggest foreign market for the four largest European leagues. At the previous World Cup, in 2022, it was the single most valuable territory, accounting for 15% of total rights spending.

The bonanza is part of a broader inflation in the value of sport. The streaming wars have driven up the price of content of all kinds. Sport has become especially precious: as streaming splits audiences into niches, live sport is one of the few things that still attracts the large, concurrent audiences advertisers prize. Some of the world’s richest companies are competing to air these scarce events. Apple has acquired the global rights to America’s Major League Soccer (MLS). Netflix has the domestic rights to the next two women’s World Cups.

Football still struggles in America, though. MLS remains a dull watch, despite its sprinkling of foreign mega-stars such as Lionel Messi, who plays for Inter Miami. At the Club World Cup, which America hosted in 2025, only one American team got beyond the group stage (and was then thrashed 4-0 by Paris Saint-Germain). Without better local teams, football is unlikely to claim the same cherished spot in American culture as home-grown sports. And even then, it might still be a tall order.

World Cup mania may inspire more participation, as it did in 1994. And more live spectacles are on the way. Los Angeles will host more football at the Olympics in 2028. And three years later the women’s World Cup will be held in America and Mexico.

America may still have some catching up to do when playing men’s football. But in watching, it is already world-class.

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