Jude on the Naylor situation

[Donn Beach]

I didn't bother with the first part of the article reviewing the signing and whatever

In 152 games, Naylor ranked as MLB’s worst first baseman in many metrics in 2026, ranking dead last with a minus-0.2 bWAR.

Chone Figgins, by comparison, was worth 1.2 bWAR for the Mariners in 2010, his first season after signing a four-year, $36 million deal that’s generally regarded the most regrettable free-agent contract in Mariners history.
Naylor posted career lows in virtually every offensive category, hitting 10 home runs, 23 doubles with 57 RBI in 650 plate appearances. He slashed .261/.317/.350 with a .667 OPS and a 95 OPS+ in 152 games.

Among 300 listed hitters, Naylor ranked 293rd in MLB’s Baseball Savant’s run value metric, at minus-17.
“Some years are awesome, some years aren’t, and that’s just the name of the game,” Naylor said. “I didn’t do as well as I could have, and it sucks. I got to wear that. I got to sit with that for the offseason, and it’s time to grow. Time to reevaluate. Go back to the drawing board.”

As with Rodríguez and Raleigh, injuries were a factor in some of Naylor’s decline. On several occasions in the first half of the season, he was in obvious pain after a swing — appearing to be bothered by shoulder and wrist ailments — but he declined to discuss them when approached during the summer.

Naylor was among the players scheduled for a physical exam at the conclusion of the season. It’s possible he might need some sort of surgical procedure this offseason; he was still working through those options with the team’s training staff when he spoke to the media last weekend.

“Me and the training staff have a plan to do certain things,” Naylor said. “I think everyone plays through pain. Everyone wants to play baseball, play at the highest level, and play at your best capability, whether it’s 50% that day, give all your 50; whether it’s 20, [you give] 20. But I don’t really like to use that as an excuse. I love to play baseball whether I’m hurt or not. … If you’re not willing to play through pain, this is the wrong job.”

Naylor never fully recovered from a dreadful start to the season. He ranked as the AL’s worst hitter through the first two weeks, and his OPS never rose higher than .707 the rest of the way. (The MLB average OPS this season: .719.)

Naylor’s waning power was especially notable.
After clubbing 31 homers (for Cleveland) in 2024 and 20 (for Seattle and Arizona) in 2025, he finished with a career-low 10 homers this season. He morphed mostly into a singles hitter; his last home run came on Aug. 8 — he hit two that day against Tampa Bay — and closed out his final 42 games with just six extra-base hits, all doubles. Not surprisingly, he also had one of baseball’s highest soft-contact rates, at 20%.

Naylor’s .350 slugging percentage was by far the lowest of his career, and lowest among all MLB first basemen. (Taylor Ward, the Mariners’ trade-deadline acquisition from Baltimore, finished with a .311 slugging percentage, the lowest among all MLB hitters with 500 plate appearances.)

Throughout his career, Naylor has been an aggressive hitter when it comes to hunting first-pitch fastballs. He’s had success with that approach, posting a .325 career batting average and an .858 OPS when he swings at the first pitch.

This season, though, pitchers appeared to use that against him. Naylor led the majors, by a wide margin, in first-pitch outs — with 94. He hit .262 with three homers and a .634 when swing at the first pitch this season.
“I think this season it is what it is,” Naylor said. “We didn’t perform and kind of have to leave it at that. You can beat yourself up all day, but at what point is enough?”

On a positive note, Naylor closed out his season last weekend with something of a historical achievement, swiping his 30th base in the penultimate game of the season, becoming the first first baseman since George Sisler from 1920-22 to post back-to-back 30-steal seasons.

As Naylor enters his age-30 season in 2027, the Mariners can only hope he chases down his offseason goals with the same sort of intensity

[D-train]

He needs to average about 2.5 WAR from his age 30-33 seasons to justify the $92.5M contract. He has put up 2.5+ WAR in a season a grand total of ONCE, in 2025.

Pretty much a lock to be the bad deal that Stanton abhors...

[Donn Beach]

He needs to average about 2.5 WAR from his age 30-33 seasons to justify the $92.5M contract. He has put up 2.5+ WAR in a season a grand total of ONCE, in 2025.

Pretty much a lock to be the bad deal that Stanton abhors...

Yeah, one could argue it was more of a win now move than a sustainability strategy. Who gives a shit about what he's doing when he's 33? It's about the next couple seasons. And so far it's not off to a good start.

The issue isn't trying to have a sustainable winning operation, everybody wants that, it's being able to go about it successfully. Again, I'd love to have a 54% winning percentage over ten years

My favorite YouTube meme

https://youtu.be/3SbLKl4C5Rw?si=ZA4UW7saAOl-o00M

Top ten winning percentages over the last ten years. I don't see a particular strategy there.

[Donn Beach]

It's interesting how really low the most successful teams percentages are. I think that's what flipped everyone out, 54%? Shit that's mediocre, not over a decade. Dipoto really should have claimed they are aiming for a winning percentage over a decade. Which isn't that bad, the mariners are the 12th winningest team over the last decade now at a .505 clip. That's what I actually see as their strategy

[GL_Storm]

It bothers me reading the part about first pitch outs. I wish I understood better why it's so hard for players to make adjustments against trends like this. It's similar to Cal not being able to lay off high fastballs for most of the season. If there's an identifiable trend in how pitchers are getting you out, aren't major league hitters supposed to be able to adjust to that?

[D-train]

It's interesting how really low the most successful teams percentages are. I think that's what flipped everyone out, 54%? Shit that's mediocre, not over a decade. Dipoto really should have claimed they are aiming for a winning percentage over a decade. Which isn't that bad, the mariners are the 12th winningest team over the last decade now at a .505 clip. That's what I actually see as their strategy

They won 54%+ from 1994-2003 but I don't recall us in the WS. Did I miss it?

And this: Made the playoffs once since the 54% speech and that was due to Cal hitting 60 and putting up 9.1 fWAR

[D-train]

It bothers me reading the part about first pitch outs. I wish I understood better why it's so hard for players to make adjustments against trends like this. It's similar to Cal not being able to lay off high fastballs for most of the season. If there's an identifiable trend in how pitchers are getting you out, aren't major league hitters supposed to be able to adjust to that?

You only have to look at yesterdays Hawks game to understand how truly stupid most athletes are.

[Donn Beach]

It's interesting how really low the most successful teams percentages are. I think that's what flipped everyone out, 54%? Shit that's mediocre, not over a decade. Dipoto really should have claimed they are aiming for a winning percentage over a decade. Which isn't that bad, the mariners are the 12th winningest team over the last decade now at a .505 clip. That's what I actually see as their strategy

They won 54%+ from 1994-2003 but I don't recall us in the WS. Did I miss it?

And this: Made the playoffs once since the 54% speech and that was due to Cal hitting 60 and putting up 9.1 fWAR

There's the quote, he didn't say he's shooting for 54%. He said teams that manage to win 54% of their games over a decade make the playoffs and perhaps the WS. I look over who's done it the last ten years and that's pretty accurate. There's nothing about the mariners actual strategy, it's about what other teams have accomplished, that relationship. The team from 94-2003 had some success, made the playoffs and came close to a WS. It's similar I'd say to the 54% teams from the last decade. It fits the model he was talking about

“If you go back and you look, in a decade those teams that win 54 percent of the time always wind up in the postseason. And they more often than not wind up in the World Series. So, there’s your bigger-picture process,” Dipoto said. “Nobody wants to hear the goal this year is, ‘We’re going to win 54 percent of the time.’ Because sometimes 54 percent is — one year, you’re going to win 60 percent, another year you’re going to win 50 percent. It’s whatever it is. But over time, that type of mindset gets you there

The issue isn't that statement, the issue is actually accomplishing it. I don't know what he means by a mind set. It's an after the fact accomplishment. That's the BS aspect, that his mindset compares somehow to what the Braves or Brewers have accomplished over the last decade

[Captain 97]

The issue was that he said they were "doing the fan's a favor" immediately after they missed the playoffs. He then used the 54% number to justify their season.

[Donn Beach]

The issue was that he said they were "doing the fan's a favor" immediately after they missed the playoffs. He then used the 54% number to justify their season.

Yeah, it was what you would get at a sales meeting. A pump you up comment. But it doesn't really make any sense in terms of a strategy which is how everyone looks at it. He's never been close to actually accomplishing it. They missed the playoffs but his mindset is to be the Braves or the Brewers, okay.