Salary Arb numbers

[D-train]

People still talking about them resigning Gilbert only a year before he hits FA. What is wrong with people's brains.

Projecting salaries for Seattle Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players
Oct. 6, 2026 at 6:00 am Updated Oct. 6, 2026 at 6:00 am

Ryan Divish By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
With the 2026 regular season done and the MLB playoffs in their second week of action, the offseason for the rest of the league started a week ago.

Part of the offseason planning for teams will be submitting salary figures for their arbitration-eligible players once the World Series ends.

With some teams limited by payroll budgets, the sometime dramatic pay raise for club-controlled players moving from the major-league minimum can force teams to make hard decisions. The Rays are a team that will often trade players in their second year of arbitration if their salary projections are too high.

A team has the option of non-tendering an arbitration-eligible player — essentially opting not to give them a contract, making the player a free agent.

The Mariners have 15 players eligible for arbitration on their 40-man roster — the fourth most in MLB. The Red Sox and Rays have 17 and the Brewers have 16.

The website MLB Trade Rumors recently released its yearly projections for arbitration-eligible players for the 2027 season. The site developed its own data model based on information gleaned from agents and teams. It provides projection that are quite similar to what teams and agents use for the process. These aren’t exact numbers but represent a pretty accurate estimation.

Here’s a look at the projections for the Mariners.

Starting pitchers
Logan Gilbert (fourth year): $15.4 million
The lanky right-hander has the highest salary projection of any player that is arbitration eligible per MLB Trade Rumors. It isn’t surprising considering the progression of his salaries over the past three seasons.

Because Gilbert was reached “Super 2” status he was granted four years of arbitration eligibility instead of the normal three. His salary over his first three seasons:

2024: $4.05 million
2025: $7.625 million
2026: $10.9 million
After making 32 starts and posting a 3.73 ERA with 205 strikeouts in 186 innings pitched, Gilbert is likely going to get another raise of around $3.5 to $4 million.


The Mariners knew that Gilbert was capable of earning such a high salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility. But they were never able to gain any traction on a possible contract extension.

George Kirby (third year): $9.8 million
Like Gilbert, Kirby is also a Super 2 qualifier meaning he still has another year club control and a fourth year of arbitration eligibility. He’s on a similar path. He made $4.3 million in 2025 in his first year of arb eligibility and $6.55 million this past season. While he wasn’t as effective in terms of results, quantity and availability matter in arbitration. Kirby made 30 starts this season and pitched 174 2/3 innings — second most on the team.

Bryce Miller (second year): $3.9 million
Miller and the Mariners avoided arbitration last season, finally agreeing to a $2.436 million contract for 2026. As part of the agreement, the Mariners had a $6.075 million club option this season with a $15,000 buyout. With Miller missing the first part of the season due to injury and his struggles of late, the Mariners will pay the buyout and look to settle for something just over $3.5 million.

Bryan Woo (first year): $5.2 million
Woo will get a nice and deserved raise from the $787,000 he made in 2026. Unlike Gilbert and Kirby, Woo didn’t achieve Super 2 status. So, he only has three total years of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent. Will the Mariners look to sign him to an extension that will remove the final two years of arb eligibility and perhaps his first 2-3 years of projected free agency?

Position players
Brendan Donovan (third year): $6.1 million
The utility player agreed to a $5.8 million contract last season with the Cardinals before being traded to the Mariners. Since he played in just 39 games, he isn’t projected to receive a major bump in pay.

Luke Raley (second year): $3.1 million
This could be an interesting decision for the Mariners, particularly if they project to be limited in their payroll budget. Raley agreed to $2.05 million contract last season. While he played in 95 games this season, he also finished the season on the injured list with a flexor tendon tear that required surgery.

If he has a typical recovery, he should be ready to go for the season.

But would the Mariners consider non-tendering him? A year ago, they opted to non-tender reliever Trent Thornton, who was recovering from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon. The uncertainty surrounding Thornton’s health and a projection of more than $2 million led the Mariners to move on.

Is Raley’s health and an offseason spent recovering along with a $3 million projection enough to non-tender him?

As a position player, Raley brings more value than a reliever. But what position would he play? The Mariners have three left-handed hitting right fielders with power — Raley, Dom Canzone and Laz Montes. There is a DH spot available as well. Canzone is going to play every day in some capacity. But do the Mariners believe Montes is ready for a full season at the MLB level? He still has some serious swing-and-miss issues. They could bring back Raley, who was one of their best hitters before the forearm issue started to cause problems, to provide depth and another experienced bat in the lineup.

Non-tendering Raley would be an unpopular move in the clubhouse.

Patrick Wisdom (second year): $1.1 million
The Mariners are expected to non-tender Wisdom if they don’t designate him for assignment before that deadline. But there is a good chance he would sign a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training. He makes his home in the Redmond area and enjoyed playing for Triple-A Tacoma this season. He also provides a solid example for young players in the system in how to be professional and prepare on a daily basis.

Following a big season where he produced .264/.336/.484 slash line with 28 doubles, 23 homers, 77 RBI and 2.8 FanGraphs WAR, Canzone, 29, will make a large jump up from the $796,000 he made in 2026. Even at his increased salary, if Canzone can replicate his production, it would be a steal for Seattle.

Relievers
The Mariners entire bullpen with the exception of Andres Muñoz was arbitration eligible this season, which is also why Seattle was so limited in being able to bring in fresh arms since they were all out of minor-league options.

Gabe Speier (third year) $3.3 million
Speier made $2.125 million in 2026 and will likely receive a nice raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Even with a stint on the IL, he still appeared in 54 games, posting a 2.93 ERA

Matt Brash (second year): $1.8 million
The hard-throwing right-hander made only 20 appearances this season, so he gets a minimal bump up from his $1.555 million salary in 2026. If Brash can make even 60 appearances in 2027, he will be a massive bargain.

Eduard Bazardo (first year): $1.5 million
Jose A. Ferrer (first year): $1.6 million
Michael Rucker (first year): $800,000
Cooper Criswell (first year): $900,000
Carlos Vargas (first year): $800,000
None of these relievers are making that much over the MLB minimum where they shouldn’t be brought back. The Mariners aren’t in a position to be jettisoning experienced relievers regardless of how they performed in 2026.