Virus Schmirus

[D-train]

Today's new cases currently 18,952. My model has 22,043.

[D-train]

Don't ask me to help you reach 22,043.

Don't think we will need you. Currently at 123,271 - 103,321 = 19,950

[D-train]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[D-train]

My date to open the county back up is Cinco De Mayo.

[bpj]

Good stuff dt, had a twitscussion with somebody about that.

Media hysteria it sure seems, but this was someone I think has good info and they were pretty firmly in the pandemic crowd. It will be very interesting to see where things end up.

Only the future unfolding can prove what was said in the past right.

[D-train]

Good stuff dt, had a twitscussion with somebody about that.

Media hysteria it sure seems, but this was someone I think has good info and they were pretty firmly in the pandemic crowd. It will be very interesting to see where things end up.

Only the future unfolding can prove what was said in the past right.

Thanks Jason. My model is simple and the key flaw is that it is based on a single point of outbreak like in Wuhan. The situation in the US is far more complex.

[Donn Beach]

Note here how few cases are two weeks old or more. These recoveries aren't even making a dent in the total active cases because they are dwarfed but the new cases. But in about a week as 99% of those people recover and at the same time new cases begin to slow due to the social distancing and shelter in place mandates have an impact we will start to see a light at the end of the tunnel representing an actual decline of active cases.

I agree, if the quarantine is followed it will have a positive effect on bringing the numbers down, flatten the curve. But that isn't a cure. Its not solving anything, its buying you time. its like having your foot on the brake, so long as you continue the quarantine you are going to have confidence of controlling the spread. Of course they can't continue it forever, so what is the mechanism for ending it? I would imagine they would begin to allow groups of fifty and over, let restaurants and bars open, and they will be monitoring the situation to see the effect. To me, 40,000 fan baseball games are way down the list, I can't see them jumping to something like that in a few weeks. If they do manage to stem the spread of the thing, I can't imagine them putting that success at risk for sporting events

[D-train]

Note here how few cases are two weeks old or more. These recoveries aren't even making a dent in the total active cases because they are dwarfed but the new cases. But in about a week as 99% of those people recover and at the same time new cases begin to slow due to the social distancing and shelter in place mandates have an impact we will start to see a light at the end of the tunnel representing an actual decline of active cases.

I agree, if the quarantine is followed it will have a positive effect on bringing the numbers down, flatten the curve. But that isn't a cure. Its not solving anything, its buying you time. its like having your foot on the brake, so long as you continue the quarantine you are going to have confidence of controlling the spread. Of course they can't continue it forever, so what is the mechanism for ending it? I would imagine they would begin to allow groups of fifty and over, let restaurants and bars open, and they will be monitoring the situation to see the effect. To me, 40,000 fan baseball games are way down the list, I can't see them jumping to something like that in a few weeks. If they do manage to stem the spread of the thing, I can't imagine them putting that success at risk for sporting events

That why I think I will be here in the Briar patch for quite some time............

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Here’s a wtf moment


The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts told musicians it will stop paying them Saturday, less than a day after the organization received a divisive $25 million arts bailout.

Saw that. Beyond belief.

Gets even better

What the hell is this for?
[/https://twitter.com/KelemenCari/status/ ... s=20[quote][/quote]

[Donn Beach]

Note here how few cases are two weeks old or more. These recoveries aren't even making a dent in the total active cases because they are dwarfed but the new cases. But in about a week as 99% of those people recover and at the same time new cases begin to slow due to the social distancing and shelter in place mandates have an impact we will start to see a light at the end of the tunnel representing an actual decline of active cases.

I agree, if the quarantine is followed it will have a positive effect on bringing the numbers down, flatten the curve. But that isn't a cure. Its not solving anything, its buying you time. its like having your foot on the brake, so long as you continue the quarantine you are going to have confidence of controlling the spread. Of course they can't continue it forever, so what is the mechanism for ending it? I would imagine they would begin to allow groups of fifty and over, let restaurants and bars open, and they will be monitoring the situation to see the effect. To me, 40,000 fan baseball games are way down the list, I can't see them jumping to something like that in a few weeks. If they do manage to stem the spread of the thing, I can't imagine them putting that success at risk for sporting events

That why I think I will be here in the Briar patch for quite some time............

yeah, I am not there, but shit has gone crazy here now, this is a very bizarre situation. I am not trying to be negative. But show me anywhere somebody addressing what is supposed to happen next? Believe me, I have searched, what is the process for winding it down, restoring normalcy. I can't find anybody that has addressed that.