Virus Schmirus

[D-train]

Remember, my model has us down to zero new cases and just a few thousand active cases by the end of April .

A battle for the ages! Soon on PPV. Warner vs. Fauci.

My money's on Fauci, but my heart is with Warner. I'll gladly lose the money.

I honestly think he said it to get people follow the rules and that's fine. There is just no way you can look at the numbers and project 100-200k dead. With a 1.7% death rate you would need 6-12 million positives. We are now at 152k with crashing growth in new cases.

You would have to have a national "French kiss a stranger" day to get the cases to jump into the millions at this point.

[bpj]

Total cases as of 3/29 is at 140,900.

How's the graph actually looking?

Unless that number gets changed it represents the first day with fewer new cases, the downside of the curve.

[Double Mocha Man]

Once this is over I'm all in for the "French Kiss a Stranger" as long as I get to pick the strangers. Almost as much fun as the Mariners winning a game, virtually or in reality.

[Double Mocha Man]

My neighbor, who is a scientist at the university, is standing in the street at the back of his SUV disinfecting 5 bags of groceries...

[Double Mocha Man]

I just drove down to Fairhaven Park to use the playfield to hit some wedges. City Park Department truck was there with the driver admonishing two guys playing on the basketball court... on the same rims that were covered a week ago with a wired 2X6 but have now had their boards removed. Too bad our now legal sports betting doesn't include betting on guys like this.

[D-train]

Total cases as of 3/29 is at 140,900.

How's the graph actually looking?

Unless that number gets changed it represents the first day with fewer new cases, the downside of the curve.

Here is the most up to date source. +14k today now. I have 28k. Guessing we will end up in the low 20s.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[D-train]

Fox is showing the slowing growth. Guessing they will be the only one.

[Double Mocha Man]

I feel really bad for NY. Would not want to be there. If they would secede from the Union then our numbers would look really good. j/k. NY is the Wuhan of America.

[D-train]

I feel really bad for NY. Would not want to be there. If they would secede from the Union then our numbers would look really good. j/k. NY is the Wuhan of America.

Might because the NYC City Council members and Health Commissionors and mayor told everyone to go party in China town and not Change behavior for Chinese new year and parade. But hey at latest they can't be accused of being "racist"

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1243174661573300231

[gil]

Fox is showing the slowing growth. Guessing they will be the only one.

New York Times has a story on slowing growth here in Washington.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/s ... -rate.html

It sure is hopeful to see evidence of the end to exponential growth. When the US had 4,000 cases I calculated that if total infections doubled every three days, we would hit 128,000 by today (we are above that) and 1 million (1.024 million actually) by April 8. And over 8 million by April 17.