Virus Schmirus

[D-train]

the models were based on no action being taken to mitigate the spread weren't they?

No. They said if no action was taken MILLIONS WILL DIE!!!!!!!!!!! But even with social distancing and such they said to expect up to 240k DEAD.

Here we are 73 days after the first case, growth rates in new cases are basically 0% and we are at 3800 deaths. Love to see how 50x more will die with lockdowns on most of the country.

[D-train]

One negative thing that I have noticed that mortality rates are rising. Over 2% now.

Coronavirus Cases:
188,881
Deaths:
4,066
Recovered:
7,251

[Donn Beach]

oh, ok, so they are predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with distancing, and you think that is way too high, where are you at with it?

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."
"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."

[D-train]

oh, ok, so they are predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with distancing, and you think that is way too high, where are you at with it?

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."
"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."

My initial was 10k deaths but that was based on 1.7% mortality rate. Its now over 2% so my 600k positives projection could lead to ~15k deaths. I am now tracking more like 500k though so somewhere in the 10-15k range. We are currently at about 189k positives and just over 4k dead.

[godawgs28]

oh, ok, so they are predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with distancing, and you think that is way too high, where are you at with it?

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."
"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."

My initial was 10k deaths but that was based on 1.7% mortality rate. Its now over 2% so my 600k positives projection could lead to ~15k deaths. I am now tracking more like 500k though so somewhere in the 10-15k range. We are currently at about 189k positives and just over 4k dead.

10-15K would put us smack about where swine flu left us in 2009

You know, the pandemic where we didnt fear monger and crash the economy?

[godawgs28]

One negative thing that I have noticed that mortality rates are rising. Over 2% now.

Coronavirus Cases:
188,881
Deaths:
4,066
Recovered:
7,251

It will come back down. Ebbs and flows with data coming in. The US has been really, really consistent at about 1.6/1.7 and will probably settle somewhere near there when its all said and done.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

I’m no modeller. Just ask my wife. However one would think that tens of thousands are currently carriers and a symptomatic. If all those had and had it wouldn’t that totally change the survivor ability This modeling sounds exactly like the craziness of global warming. No offence to you at all mr train but these numbers are more like a suggestion and I for one pray Darrens numbers are solid and faucis are to scare the toilet lickers

[D-train]

Here is the latest. My model (dt) vs. Actual. Keep in mind my model is based on end of day today.


Total Cases:
dt: 246,565
A: 205,036 (estimate: 215k at end of day)

New Cases today:
dt: 34,360
A: 18,935 (estimate: 29k at end of day)

Recovered:
dt: 10, 442
A: 8,745 (estimate: 10k at end of day)

[gil]

oh, ok, so they are predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with distancing, and you think that is way too high, where are you at with it?

My initial was 10k deaths but that was based on 1.7% mortality rate. Its now over 2% so my 600k positives projection could lead to ~15k deaths. I am now tracking more like 500k though so somewhere in the 10-15k range. We are currently at about 189k positives and just over 4k dead.

10-15K would put us smack about where swine flu left us in 2009

You know, the pandemic where we didnt fear monger and crash the economy?

Yes, but ... if we limit the outbreak so it is in the ballpark of dt's projections (500k and 10-15k) isn't it to some extent BECAUSE we have taken extreme measures? Just curious: what would your estimates be for positives and deaths if we had gone forward with "business as usual"? (that is, if we continued to have tens of thousands in arenas and stadiums, continued going to crowded restaurants and bars)? It certainly would have to be been much higher than dt's projections.

I have the vague feeling that some people are essentially arguing, "We don't need all these safety regulations where I work because no one has been killed in a year." The steps we take to protect ourselves and the outcomes are NOT independent.

[D-train]

Here is the latest. My model (dt) vs. Actual. Keep in mind my model is based on end of day today.


Total Cases:
dt: 246,565
A: 205,036 (estimate: 215k at end of day) Currently 211k

New Cases today:
dt: 34,360
A: 18,935 (estimate: 29k at end of day) 25k

Recovered:
dt: 10, 442
A: 8,745 (estimate: 10k at end of day) 8,800