Lindor. An article by IStillLoveTheMs

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Before I attempt to rationalize a trade for Cleveland Indians superstar shortstop Fransisco Lindor in the minds of deservedly skeptical Mariner fans, I have to make one point very clear.

Within the next couple seasons, the M's will have to spend a lot of money. This cannot be understated. Keep that theme in your mind as you read what I have to say despite your strongest reservations.

Mariner's general manager Jerry Dipoto asked M’s fans to have faith during 2019 and 2020 seasons where the M’s cut payroll and veteran contracts in favor of a rebuilding process that featured the rise of cheap, young prospects.

In return, sources within the M's organization claim that money saved during this period of non-competitive baseball would lead to a time where Dipoto is handed a blank check by ownership to put superstars around the core of young stars when it’s time to go for a World Championship. Simply put, this isn’t your typical Mariners ownership. They want to field a contender and it's time to think of the M's as players for big names involved in free agency or possible trades going forward.

An important caveat, one that some fans fall victim to misbelieving, is that this "blank check" doesn't need to be spent all at once. Take the Padres for example: they signed Manny Machado to a 10-year $300 million contract a year before anyone figured they would contend and traded a good chunk for some big names a year later.

Pairing Machado with a young superstar like Fernando Tatis Jr. and other budding, young talent alongside veterans like Eric Hosmer and Wil Meyers has led to a lot of success in its second season laid the blueprint for a team like the M's that finds itself in a similar position a year later. Even if the M's don't contend for a playoff spot in 2021 (the Padres didn't contend in 2019), acquiring a player like Lindor sets tone for future expectations and further solidifies a roster they figure will quickly contend.

In 2020, the M’s took a bigger leap forward than maybe anticipated and found a core of 5 young players that could potentially be stalwarts of a contending ball club going forward. The M's finished with a better record than expected and were still alive in the playoff hunt heading into the final series of the season leading some to believe that contention is not all that far away. The leaders of that youth movement, at least as I see it, are as follows:

1B: Evan White: The M’s believe so much in Evan White that they offered him a hefty MLB contract before he ever stepped on the field as a big leaguer. His rookie campaign was filled with ups an downs as a hitter. He’ll have to improve his contact rate, but when he makes contact he hits the ball about as hard as anyone in baseball. A .255 BABIP in 2020 combined with with one of the harder contact rates in baseball tells me he’s gotten pretty unlucky. His glove is among the best in baseball and I think he’ll improve drastically as a hitter as he gets more comfortable.

2B: Dylan Moore: Moore looks like a 5-tool player. He’s a great contact hitter. He’s got the pop to hit 20+ homers in a season. He’s got a plus glove and arm at 2B. He’s extremely fast and steals bags at a high rate. After one of the weirder debuts in MLB history, he’s turned out to be the least likely stalwart of this rebuild, but man are we happy about it.

RF: Jarred Kelenic: JK is probably the most exciting prospect to come through ranks for the M’s since Felix Hernandez. Everyone raves about his maturity and work ethic. The consensus is that he’s a future superstar and he’ll get the chance to prove it when takes over a starting corner OF spot in 2021. I think of him as a Bregman type that will perform at an elite level right away.

CF: Kyle Lewis: Boy oh boy has Mr. Lewis emerged as a stud. Hell, he’s the 2020 Rookie of The Year. After a lackluster minor league career that was mostly derailed by an early, freak knee injury, most pundits questioned whether he’d ever live up to his first-round designation. It seems he’s realizing his potential and is giving M’s fans flashes of Griffey nostalgia.

DH/Util: Ty France: I think the M’s knew exactly what they were doing when they acquired France from the Padres at the 2020 deadline. Right now, it seems like robbery. France has what looks to be a potentially elite bat. He hits for high average and has solid discipline at the plate. All that’s left to show at the MLB level is that he’s got better-than-average power, but a 2019 minor-league campaign where he hit 29 homers in just 79 games tells you he’s more than capable.

Now let’s go over the rest of the field positions. We need to do so to determine that areas of weakness the M’s have so we can fill those gaps with cash when it's time to spend on stars:

LF: The M’s aren’t conceding an inch by starting a healthy Mitch Haniger over the next few seasons. He’s a plus hitter and fielder with great leadership qualities who the M’s will be thrilled to put in a clubhouse with their young talent. Julio Rodriguez, the M’s no. 2 overall prospect and future top-10 prospect in all of baseball, will be here by 2023 at the latest.

3B: Kyle Seager is on the payroll through the 2021 season and has a 2022 club option if he excels next year. We know who Seager is: he’ll hit .240 to .260 with 25 homers and 90 RBI’s, play plus defense at the hot corner and is well-liked by the organization. It’s worth noting that the M’s are extremely weak at this position in the minors and there’s really nobody close to ready. I could see the M’s exploring a trade for a stellar 3B in the 2021 off season or spend money there in free agency (Kris Bryant). But as it sits, they have security here for at least one more year.

C: The M’s have three potential catchers with years of control who are either at the MLB level or close. Tom Murphy stood out during a surprising 2019 campaign but missed all of 2020 with injuries. Luis Torrens is a quality backup who isn’t a total liability with a bat. And Cal Raleigh is a highly-rated prospect who isn’t far away. The M’s can roll with a mix of these guys for years to come.

SS: Here’s where I see a major weakness in the future. JP Crawford has over 800 plate appearances at the MLB level and aside from some nice flashes with the bat early in seasons, he’s been prone to some fall-off-a-cliff-type cold streaks. In July, August and September of 2019 Crawford hit for around a .170 average and .570 OPS which is dreadful. In August and September of 2020, Crawford hit for around a .190 average and .540 OPS. Simply put, when he goes bad with the bat, he goes really bad. He’s never shown a consistent power approach despite his open-stanced, long hack which has led to more swings and misses than results. Crawford’s saving grace is his glove, but I’m pretty much over light-hitting defensive short stops (Brenden Ryan still gives me nightmares). I don’t see Crawford turning it around with the bat. To me he’s too far gone and hasn’t shown the ability to adjust whatsoever. The M’s have a high-quality prospect in Noelvi Marte at the minor-league level, but he’s likely a 2023 or 2024 big-league candidate at just 19 years old.

So why a trade for Lindor?

1. As I’ve said, the M’s have to spend money. They cannot roll with every prospect with that premise in mind. I see Crawford as the clear weak link and on the outside looking in of the core-5 young stars. Lindor fills the hole at SS and scratches the “M’s will spend money” itch with a superstar. The M’s do not have many holes, assuming the core-5 excels as I think (hope) they will, and they should spend money on a position where it’s warranted. The M’s would ultimately look to extend him long term post trade.

2. He’s one of the brightest young stars in baseball. He was an All-Star selection from 2016 to 2019. From 2017 to 2019 he averaged about a .280 BA as a switch hitter, 180 hits, 35 homers, 87 RBI’s, 110 runs, and an .860 OPS. From 2016 to 2019 he won 2x Gold Gloves and 2x Silver Sluggers. He’s also only going to be 27 years old heading into the 2021 season which makes him not nearly as big of a liability taking a long-term extension into account.

3. Cleveland is likely to trade Lindor this off season because they’ve basically said as much and are not willing to fork over the cash it’s going to take to extend him. Frankly, he’s not having his best season in 2020. This is actually a positive for the M’s as he might demand less value in a trade. The Indians also failed to trade him during the 2020 season which should also decrease his value in a trade with just one year left before he hits free agency.

Here’s my trade proposal:

JP Crawford, Justin Dunn, Taylor Trammel, Jake Fraley and Brayan Perez for Fransisco Lindor

The Indians get a young, controlled MLB shortstop to replace the one they just traded. JP brings a lot of value with his glove. The Indians can work on his bat and hope he realizes his potential. He was a former top prospect after all.

Justin Dunn is currently the M’s no. 8 overall prospect and had a solid rookie campaign in 2020. The Indians add a solid, controlled rotation piece who is ready to contribute right away.

Taylor Trammel is currently the M’s no. 6 overall prospect after being freshly acquired from the Padres. Kelenic, Lewis and Rodriguez block him from any meaningful consideration as a full-time outfielder in this organization. He’s the toolsy type and was considered a top-20 prospect in all of baseball following the 2019 season.

Jake Fraley is the M’s no. 10 overall prospect. He’s ready to go now but is blocked by Haniger, Kelenic and Lewis + a few backup utility pieces. Fraley has a career .842 OPS in the minors, hit 19 homers in AAA in 2019 and has a solid glove that the Indians can slot into their OF sooner than later.

Brayan Perez is the M’s no. 18 prospect. He’s a youngin’ of the Marco Gonzales variety. He’s shown plus control and plus success this far in his professional career. The Indians get a young, controlled pitcher they can hang on to for the future.

Ultimately, I think a package like this gets the trade done. Lindor was rumored in a trade to the Dodgers in the 2019 off season that would have included Dodger prospects Gavin Lux and Dustin May. That’s an insane haul for the Dodgers to give up and it was honestly never going to happen. Keep in mind the trade was two years in advance of Lindor hitting free agency, but it would ultimately be like the M’s sending Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert to the Indians which is absolutely insane. As I said before, a year makes a world of difference and his value in a trade should bring much less of a return. Instead, look at the trade the Dodgers made for Mookie Betts that netted the Red Sox Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong.

[D-train]

You are crazy my friend.

[D-train]

You are crazy my friend.

In a good way........a very good way.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

You are crazy my friend.

In a good way........a very good way.

Lol, I had some time at work today.

[D-train]

Its Saturday here in the east. Good night boys........

[bpj]

Well thought out article.

First instinct is that package would sting to give up for Lindor.

Which, may make it about right.

I could easily see Crawford+a young SP+more going for Lindor.

Trade for Lindor and get Bauer on a 1/$25M and go after the playoffs. Literally no reason not to.

[D-train]

Well thought out article.

First instinct is that package would sting to give up for Lindor.

Which, may make it about right.

I could easily see Crawford+a young SP+more going for Lindor.

Trade for Lindor and get Bauer on a 1/$25M and go after the playoffs. Literally no reason not to.

Agreed. Let's roll!

[rockycola]

Solid thought proces ISLTM. With the prospects M's have on the horizon I don't think the price is too steep in your trade scenario although Cleveland may ask/demand a different set of pieces altogether from what you propose.

Mentioned before, I like rookie Willi Castro of Detroit although the more I read about him the more his defense bothers me, but what a bat he has.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... wi01.shtml

.346 \ .380 \ .551 \ .931 with 6 HR & 23 RBI. Needs to walk more.

https://motorcitybengals.com/2020/09/08 ... p-rebuild/

Also, with all the Kyle Lewis ROY talk, Castro could win the award this year but I'm rooting for K-Lew although he may not have enuf AB'd to qualify.

[D-train]

He's only played in 35 games. So no a shot at Roy.

Definitely intriguing bat though.

[AT Funchal-Madeira]

Concerning Francisco Lindor, I campaigned rather heavily for drafting Lindor... my second choice after Anthony Rendon in 2011 but the M's took Danny Hultzon with that draft. That draft really pissed me off... Tampa Bay took Blake Snell in the third round from Shorewood High School and the Red Sox got Mookie Betts in the 5th round.... so many good players and the best we did was Brad Miller...

I'd have no problem making a play for him, but I think that little collection of players proposed would be a joke to the Indians... I'd love to hit gold this year in the draft.... so I'm campaigning for Luke Leto in the first round... if Brady House is taken...

I'm sure that Cleveland has identified some potential trade targets for Lindor, doubt that Jake Fraley and JP Crawford are in that list.....