Kyle Lewis Vs. an All Star Team

[bpj]

You're right, that does look like what they do. I'd bet anything thats why I never buy in to their WAR.

They use wRAA which shows a .36 WAR difference on the offensive output (15.9 for Conforto compared to Lowe at 12.3).

Maybe Lowe made that much up a bit with defense and baserunning but it doesn't look quite perfectly correlated.

They use UZR as part of the initial equation, which already accounts for park and a players position in the initial formula, but they don't normalize for position in any way for the offense?

When they're figuring out wRAA they're using a players wOBA and then subtracting the league average as opposed to subtracting the average wOBA of players at the same position.

If they're normalizing for positional scarcity after adding in UZR which already does that, they should use wOBA compared to others at their position, not the league, since UZR is based on how well you play where you do; compare how they hot to others playing where they do, THEN adjust for positional scarcity.

In the same way that WAR didn't quite make sense to compare players until they adopted our WAR/600 model, using a positional adjustment after already accounting for positional plays and park differences like UZR does, makes no sense to me.

Basically that all boils down to, in the wRAA equation, instead of using a blanket .320, just insert the average wOBA for the position they're playing.

The positional scarcity numbers they then add would have to be adjusted slightly because it got more position-centric on the offensive valuation, but in the end would be more accurate, imo.

It would show how they do compared to others at their position on offense and defense, then adjusted with positional scarcity added in to be able to compare to players at other positions.

[Petert]

I seriously think I'd actually consider paying for a course taught by you guys on this stuff.

[D-train]

Great stuff brother. Math and baseball. Hot women. These are a few of my favorite things.

[Petert]

No.

Baseball, hot women, and music.

I greatly admire people who can live inside the absolute poetry of mathematics, but it was always my weakest point. Baseball and hot women, however....

[D-train]

No.

Baseball, hot women, and music.

I greatly admire people who can live inside the absolute poetry of mathematics, but it was always my weakest point. Baseball and hot women, however....

I love music as well and my wife would agree with your disdain for mathematics.

[bpj]

This is what I meant about how they use the .320 league average.

And I know wRAA may be meant to compare offensive players, but I'm just saying maybe using a position-centric version of that while calculating WAR instead of league average will be more accurate in the end.

[bpj]

wRAAp-


"Weighted Runs Above Average for their Position" would show offensive value based on their position. (Just sub in .300 for .320 for CF in the equation, etc.)

Then when you have that, add it to your UZR which shows value at a position

THEN use positional adjustment to allow comparing across positions.

[D-train]

do you think that this methodology confirms your thought that defense is over emphasized in the War calculation?

on a scale of 1 to 10 how would you value offense vs defense. I think I'm 7 to 3 but I think you're at 8 to 2

[D-train]

Perhaps even 9 to 1?

[D-train]

I just asked fellow board member Auburn Terry's residing in my home in Quincy and he says he's 6 to 4 offense defense