Who will win the presidential election

[seattlefan-daBronx]

Damn these rebel scum!

Trump will win in a "supposive landslide" in the swing states this evening.
BUT as Shitlary tweeted "the election is not over until all votes are counted".
All of the voter fraud shenanigans will happen after the polls close tonight in PA, Nevada, Minnesota just to start...
First thing this morning they played non-stop images of black voters lined up to vote in Philly on cable news.
THAT is where this thing turns ugly imho.
All of the dem surrogates have been told to use flash words like "Red Mirage" in all of the election day coverage to create confusion.
Social media twitter, facebook, ect. are flagging all of Trumps posts so that he cannot declare "victory" tonight.
Any tweets or retweets of victory will result in banning accounts. Big Brother has a stick up their butt.
I've seen the military come into Manhattan already. Every off-duty NYPD and detective has been on alert since Oct. 24.
All of the streets are covered with not just once sheet of plywood but double plywood with like 8 inch nails because of the bugs coming out.
The black youth criminal bastards will come out tonight and trash and loot our city AGAIN...causing fear and depression.
HELL....the whitehouse is on lockdown. Trump has to celebrate in the small ballroom with about 400 of his people / family.
Like many of you I have to physically go to work and make a living. Now I have to pack illegally and watch my six more than usual when I go out.
If I get pulled over and they find my piece let's just say NYC has the strictest gun laws in the world. I risk possible jail time to protect myself.
No travel into Manhattan at all this week and who knows for how long? Cut's down my income 30 to 40 percent right there.
I am just pissed off and sick to my stomach about how this crap is allowed in our country!

LAW & ORDER...without it we're just animals. Until someone on top is arrested and jailed this shit just continues. Be safe Seattle.

[D-train]

You guys can mock Nate Silver and polling all you want but...

By election day Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump fell all the way to 3% nationally - largely due to the Comey letter playing so much significance. She won the popular vote by 2.1% which is well within the margins of polling errors (.9% where errors up to 3-4% are generally advertised)... and that's despite being a horrifically unpopular candidate. Silver gave trump a 29% chance to win the election on election day, which, in terms of probability, isn't a small chance whatsoever... and would you look at that, he defied some odds (I'd argue not that hard to overcome) and won the election.

Trump beat his polling averages by 2-3% in swing states, which again, were within the margin of error... he narrowly won the election. Pollsters now say they've adjusted their methods a little bit to account for the Trump voter they say they undervalued in the 2016 election. With those adjustments, Trump is losing Minnesota (-4.3), Wisconsin (-7.4), Michigan (-8.6), Pennsylvania (-5.0) all outside the margin of error of pollsters. If Biden wins those 4 states, and carries all the states Clinton won in 2016, Biden surpasses the 270 threshold. Biden could lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and still win. My guess is, he could win a couple of these swing states and that's where you're seeing the 290 to 300+ electoral college vote predictions.

The polls would actually have to be astronomically more wrong on average than they were in 2016 for a Trump victory. Which is why Silver is giving Trump an 11% chance at pulling off a victory... which is much, much smaller than the 29% chance he gave him in 2016.

There's a couple factors that differ this time around in my opinion:

1. Trump isn't an enigma anymore... people know who he his, what he represents, and how he's been as president... his supporters love him, old rich white people love him, but I'm not sure he's done himself any favors with the pandemic, race relations, and his general demeanor among voters who were on the fence or just didn't vote in 2016... not to mention Democrats who could possibly change their vote... my guess is there are probably more conservatives who have changed their vote to Biden (the traditional Bush types). I personally don't think the "silent Trump voter" carries as much weight as they might have in 2016.

2. I think Dems got extremely complacent in 2016. After all, Clinton was a horribly unpopular candidate even among Democrat voters when it came to turnout, especially among people of color. Conservatives were invigorated, Liberals were not... as indicated by a 60% overall voter turnout which was wayyy down from previous elections. In elections where there's a large voter turnout, Democrats are almost always favored.

3. The younger generations of voters have come out in droves so far in this election... Gen Z and Millenial voters are smashing their registration and voting percentages compared to 2016... it's similar to the 2008 election where now older Millennials carried Obama to victory. In 2016, Clinton won 55% of the youth vote to 37% for Donald Trump... the numbers are set to look even worse for Trump in this category in 2020 given that 4 years later more older conservatives have passed and huge sections of Gen Z voters are now old enough to vote.

4. While people mention the "silent Trump voter"... I think there's "silent Biden voter(s)" this go around that polls are maybe not accounting for. Trump is polling terribly among suburban women for example... a category that he carried well in 2016... could they be defying their white husbands wishes and voting for Biden? And as I mentioned before, what about Conservatives who frankly found that they just don't like Trump given the last 4 years?

5. Here's one category that I think maybe? favors Trump: we don't know how effective mail-in voting is compared to voting at the polls. Democrats have voted far, far more via mail-in voting than Conservatives. Last I checked it was about a 25 point advantage for Democrats here... some argue that Conservatives will smash Democrat voters today when it comes to voting at the polls (when you account for Covid and Conservatives generally voting more on election day than early voting)... but is it enough to make up for the votes already casted by mail that again, hugely favors Dems? I guess we'll find out.

If Trump wins, I'll tip my cap, get ready for another insane 4 years... and pray for the best. But as it sits, he's seriously favored to lose... much more so than in 2016.

You should take up CDAJs offer for the bet.

[gil]

You guys can mock Nate Silver and polling all you want but...

By election day Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump fell all the way to 3% nationally - largely due to the Comey letter playing so much significance. She won the popular vote by 2.1% which is well within the margins of polling errors (.9% where errors up to 3-4% are generally advertised)... and that's despite being a horrifically unpopular candidate. Silver gave trump a 29% chance to win the election on election day, which, in terms of probability, isn't a small chance whatsoever... and would you look at that, he defied some odds (I'd argue not that hard to overcome) and won the election.

Trump beat his polling averages by 2-3% in swing states, which again, were within the margin of error... he narrowly won the election. Pollsters now say they've adjusted their methods a little bit to account for the Trump voter they say they undervalued in the 2016 election. With those adjustments, Trump is losing Minnesota (-4.3), Wisconsin (-7.4), Michigan (-8.6), Pennsylvania (-5.0) all outside the margin of error of pollsters. If Biden wins those 4 states, and carries all the states Clinton won in 2016, Biden surpasses the 270 threshold. Biden could lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and still win. My guess is, he could win a couple of these swing states and that's where you're seeing the 290 to 300+ electoral college vote predictions.

The polls would actually have to be astronomically more wrong on average than they were in 2016 for a Trump victory. Which is why Silver is giving Trump an 11% chance at pulling off a victory... which is much, much smaller than the 29% chance he gave him in 2016.

There's a couple factors that differ this time around in my opinion:

1. Trump isn't an enigma anymore... people know who he his, what he represents, and how he's been as president... his supporters love him, old rich white people love him, but I'm not sure he's done himself any favors with the pandemic, race relations, and his general demeanor among voters who were on the fence or just didn't vote in 2016... not to mention Democrats who could possibly change their vote... my guess is there are probably more conservatives who have changed their vote to Biden (the traditional Bush types). I personally don't think the "silent Trump voter" carries as much weight as they might have in 2016.

2. I think Dems got extremely complacent in 2016. After all, Clinton was a horribly unpopular candidate even among Democrat voters when it came to turnout, especially among people of color. Conservatives were invigorated, Liberals were not... as indicated by a 60% overall voter turnout which was wayyy down from previous elections. In elections where there's a large voter turnout, Democrats are almost always favored.

3. The younger generations of voters have come out in droves so far in this election... Gen Z and Millenial voters are smashing their registration and voting percentages compared to 2016... it's similar to the 2008 election where now older Millennials carried Obama to victory. In 2016, Clinton won 55% of the youth vote to 37% for Donald Trump... the numbers are set to look even worse for Trump in this category in 2020 given that 4 years later more older conservatives have passed and huge sections of Gen Z voters are now old enough to vote.

4. While people mention the "silent Trump voter"... I think there's "silent Biden voter(s)" this go around that polls are maybe not accounting for. Trump is polling terribly among suburban women for example... a category that he carried well in 2016... could they be defying their white husbands wishes and voting for Biden? And as I mentioned before, what about Conservatives who frankly found that they just don't like Trump given the last 4 years?

5. Here's one category that I think maybe? favors Trump: we don't know how effective mail-in voting is compared to voting at the polls. Democrats have voted far, far more via mail-in voting than Conservatives. Last I checked it was about a 25 point advantage for Democrats here... some argue that Conservatives will smash Democrat voters today when it comes to voting at the polls (when you account for Covid and Conservatives generally voting more on election day than early voting)... but is it enough to make up for the votes already casted by mail that again, hugely favors Dems? I guess we'll find out.

If Trump wins, I'll tip my cap, get ready for another insane 4 years... and pray for the best. But as it sits, he's seriously favored to lose... much more so than in 2016.

I think this is a pretty good analysis. As far as I can see, Trump's biggest hope is even greater turnout of his supporters than 4 years ago.

I think I have said this before: the pollsters like Nate Silver WANT to be accurate. They look at what was wrong in 2016 (or 2018, or 2012 for that matter), and try to correct it. If they are seen as missing this one worse than they did in 2016, they lose credibility. They have business and financial incentives to be accurate.

The biggest misses in 2016 were not nationally (as noted above) but in underestimating the turnout of white males without a college education. In hindsight, that is why the polls were so far off in PA, MI, WI, MN, IA, OH. Nate Silver says that 538's model has been adjusted for this. (Note that the polls in 2016 were NOT off, or maybe overestimated Trump support, in places like TX, AZ, and GA.)

I'm hoping and praying that the election is honest and fair, for both candidates. I hope everyone is on board with that sentiment.

**************

A new poll indicates that the vast majority of Democratic voters have taken advantage of early drinking ahead of the 2020 election.

In contrast to 2016, when many Democrats did not begin drinking in earnest until well into Election Night, the poll indicates that these same voters started consuming alcohol days and even weeks before November 3rd.

“By the time I started drinking in 2016, it was too late for me to fully anesthetize myself,” Harland Dorrinson, an Arizona Democrat who started drinking last Thursday, said. “That’s why I went for the early-drinking option.”

According to the poll, white wine, long considered a favorite of certain Democratic constituencies, was the choice of only twenty-four per cent of the early drinkers, while vodka, scotch, and other spirits garnered the support of a whopping fifty-nine per cent.

The surging support for hard liquor is an indication that Democrats are taking early drinking more seriously than they did in 2016, experts say.

Carol Foyler, a Pennsylvania voter who began early drinking in September, said that she had not stocked enough alcohol in her home in 2016 but was better prepared this year. “I made a plan to drink,” she said.

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowit ... y-drinking

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Btw

That bet ended at midnight last night. Bunch of pussies

[ddraig]

From a tweet by Clay Travis:

Clay Travis
@ClayTravis
·
19h
The number of men & women in sports media, of all races, who reached out to say they are voting for
@realDonaldTrump
, but are afraid to say so on social media because of the Twitter blue checkmark brigade in sports is staggering. How many people in all industries are like this?

And the Democrap lead in Florida from the early voting is now down to 6000 votes for Biden. That was as of 10:30 this AM their time!

[D-train]

Btw

That bet ended at midnight last night. Bunch of pussies

[HawkBowler 2.0]

3. The younger generations of voters have come out in droves so far in this election... Gen Z and Millenial voters are smashing their registration and voting percentages compared to 2016... it's similar to the 2008 election where now older Millennials carried Obama to victory. In 2016, Clinton won 55% of the youth vote to 37% for Donald Trump... the numbers are set to look even worse for Trump in this category in 2020 given that 4 years later more older conservatives have passed and huge sections of Gen Z voters are now old enough to vote.

Possibly. Another take is that the younger generation is no longer the Obama coalition. These young people, especially millenials, want the country to open back up. The youth surge could be due to anti-lock down sentiments.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

A decent recap of why Trump is going to win

And after it's all over, and Trump voters finally find some measure of satisfaction, the absolute carnage that Democrats have caused these last four years will be put into startling perspective. Winning, for them, was worth any cost. But for ordinary, real-life Americans, this orchestrated chaos changes things forever. Never will the CIA or FBI be trusted as they once were, nor will the federal courts that have embraced political activism as a vocation. The credentialed press is exposed as a laughingstock of hoax-pushers and Soviet propagandists. Hollywood entertainers and professional athletes who have mistaken their celebrity for a license to insult the flyover faithful are about to learn what happens to their value when the market for their services disappears. And "Me Too" women's groups and "Black Lives Matter" protest movements have outed themselves as professional agitators and political Marxists who care very little for the people they claim to protect. For four years, Democrats have used America's institutions for personal, partisan gain, and in their reckless pursuit of power, those institutions are damaged forever.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Btw

That bet ended at midnight last night. Bunch of pussies

A British gambler has staked $5 million dollars on President Trump winning re-election in what is believed to be the largest ever political bet.



According to the Sun, the former banker used private bookmakers registered on the Caribbean island of Curacao and was able to secure odds of 37/20, meaning he will receive a $15 million payout if Trump is victorious.

[D-train]

Btw

That bet ended at midnight last night. Bunch of pussies

A British gambler has staked $5 million dollars on President Trump winning re-election in what is believed to be the largest ever political bet.



According to the Sun, the former banker used private bookmakers registered on the Caribbean island of Curacao and was able to secure odds of 37/20, meaning he will receive a $15 million payout if Trump is victorious.

Wow.