Who will win the presidential election

[BaseHitDerby]

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
1h
FL Rs + 164,466

This is a 250,000-300,000 Trump win.

[BaseHitDerby]

You guys can mock Nate Silver and polling all you want but...

By election day Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump fell all the way to 3% nationally - largely due to the Comey letter playing so much significance. She won the popular vote by 2.1% which is well within the margins of polling errors (.9% where errors up to 3-4% are generally advertised)... and that's despite being a horrifically unpopular candidate. Silver gave trump a 29% chance to win the election on election day, which, in terms of probability, isn't a small chance whatsoever... and would you look at that, he defied some odds (I'd argue not that hard to overcome) and won the election.

Trump beat his polling averages by 2-3% in swing states, which again, were within the margin of error... he narrowly won the election. Pollsters now say they've adjusted their methods a little bit to account for the Trump voter they say they undervalued in the 2016 election. With those adjustments, Trump is losing Minnesota (-4.3), Wisconsin (-7.4), Michigan (-8.6), Pennsylvania (-5.0) all outside the margin of error of pollsters. If Biden wins those 4 states, and carries all the states Clinton won in 2016, Biden surpasses the 270 threshold. Biden could lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and still win. My guess is, he could win a couple of these swing states and that's where you're seeing the 290 to 300+ electoral college vote predictions.

The polls would actually have to be astronomically more wrong on average than they were in 2016 for a Trump victory. Which is why Silver is giving Trump an 11% chance at pulling off a victory... which is much, much smaller than the 29% chance he gave him in 2016.

There's a couple factors that differ this time around in my opinion:

1. Trump isn't an enigma anymore... people know who he his, what he represents, and how he's been as president... his supporters love him, old rich white people love him, but I'm not sure he's done himself any favors with the pandemic, race relations, and his general demeanor among voters who were on the fence or just didn't vote in 2016... not to mention Democrats who could possibly change their vote... my guess is there are probably more conservatives who have changed their vote to Biden (the traditional Bush types). I personally don't think the "silent Trump voter" carries as much weight as they might have in 2016.

2. I think Dems got extremely complacent in 2016. After all, Clinton was a horribly unpopular candidate even among Democrat voters when it came to turnout, especially among people of color. Conservatives were invigorated, Liberals were not... as indicated by a 60% overall voter turnout which was wayyy down from previous elections. In elections where there's a large voter turnout, Democrats are almost always favored.

3. The younger generations of voters have come out in droves so far in this election... Gen Z and Millenial voters are smashing their registration and voting percentages compared to 2016... it's similar to the 2008 election where now older Millennials carried Obama to victory. In 2016, Clinton won 55% of the youth vote to 37% for Donald Trump... the numbers are set to look even worse for Trump in this category in 2020 given that 4 years later more older conservatives have passed and huge sections of Gen Z voters are now old enough to vote.

4. While people mention the "silent Trump voter"... I think there's "silent Biden voter(s)" this go around that polls are maybe not accounting for. Trump is polling terribly among suburban women for example... a category that he carried well in 2016... could they be defying their white husbands wishes and voting for Biden? And as I mentioned before, what about Conservatives who frankly found that they just don't like Trump given the last 4 years?

5. Here's one category that I think maybe? favors Trump: we don't know how effective mail-in voting is compared to voting at the polls. Democrats have voted far, far more via mail-in voting than Conservatives. Last I checked it was about a 25 point advantage for Democrats here... some argue that Conservatives will smash Democrat voters today when it comes to voting at the polls (when you account for Covid and Conservatives generally voting more on election day than early voting)... but is it enough to make up for the votes already casted by mail that again, hugely favors Dems? I guess we'll find out.

If Trump wins, I'll tip my cap, get ready for another insane 4 years... and pray for the best. But as it sits, he's seriously favored to lose... much more so than in 2016.

I think this is a pretty good analysis. As far as I can see, Trump's biggest hope is even greater turnout of his supporters than 4 years ago.

I think I have said this before: the pollsters like Nate Silver WANT to be accurate. They look at what was wrong in 2016 (or 2018, or 2012 for that matter), and try to correct it. If they are seen as missing this one worse than they did in 2016, they lose credibility. They have business and financial incentives to be accurate.

The biggest misses in 2016 were not nationally (as noted above) but in underestimating the turnout of white males without a college education. In hindsight, that is why the polls were so far off in PA, MI, WI, MN, IA, OH. Nate Silver says that 538's model has been adjusted for this. (Note that the polls in 2016 were NOT off, or maybe overestimated Trump support, in places like TX, AZ, and GA.)

I'm hoping and praying that the election is honest and fair, for both candidates. I hope everyone is on board with that sentiment.

**************

A new poll indicates that the vast majority of Democratic voters have taken advantage of early drinking ahead of the 2020 election.

In contrast to 2016, when many Democrats did not begin drinking in earnest until well into Election Night, the poll indicates that these same voters started consuming alcohol days and even weeks before November 3rd.

“By the time I started drinking in 2016, it was too late for me to fully anesthetize myself,” Harland Dorrinson, an Arizona Democrat who started drinking last Thursday, said. “That’s why I went for the early-drinking option.”

According to the poll, white wine, long considered a favorite of certain Democratic constituencies, was the choice of only twenty-four per cent of the early drinkers, while vodka, scotch, and other spirits garnered the support of a whopping fifty-nine per cent.

The surging support for hard liquor is an indication that Democrats are taking early drinking more seriously than they did in 2016, experts say.

Carol Foyler, a Pennsylvania voter who began early drinking in September, said that she had not stocked enough alcohol in her home in 2016 but was better prepared this year. “I made a plan to drink,” she said.

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowit ... y-drinking

The MSM polls in the US are used to suppress Republican votes:

Mainstream media polls showing Joe Biden with a wide lead are failing to accurately gauge support for President Trump and are being used to suppress Trump voter turnout, according to Brexit architect Nigel Farage.

Farage, the British politician who led an underdog movement to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union, said he believes Trump will win despite current polls — just like in 2016 — suggesting otherwise.

"I think that polling is often used by the establishment as a way of disincentivizing the other side to go out and vote," Farage said on "Just the News AM" television show. "The morning of Brexit, there was a poll released that said Remain [in the E.U.] were 10 points ahead. And it was done, very simply, to say to potential 'Leave' voters, 'Do you know what, if it's raining, don't bother to get down to the local school and vote, because you're gonna lose anyway?'

Farage said he was "struck" with American polls because of what he called "tiny" sample sizes generating margins of error often between 3% to 4%.

"Come on, you know, oh, in Florida, Biden's half a percent ahead," Farage said. "It's ridiculous, because the margin of error is several times bigger than that."

Farage said he agreed with the results seen by polling firm The Trafalgar Group, which specializes in tracking "hidden" Trump voters. Conforming to what the firm calls a "social-desirability bias," these conservative and independent Trump voters feel marginalized and fearful about expressing their support for the president due to social stigma in news media and social media. Trafalgar Group founder Robert Cahaly told RealClearPolitics this bias in 2020 is "worse than it was four years ago."

"I think that's right," Farage said. "And I also think there's another factor here, which is a lot of people who feel that they're let down by the political establishment, the media establishment, see the polling establishment as being part of the same group. So if they get an email, or a telephone call for a polling company, they use 'Anglo-Saxon language' to say we're not playing the game with you. So it's actually quite difficult to track many of these people."

[BaseHitDerby]

Even blue states like Virginia and New Mexico are in play for Trump lol. It's looking like a landslide.

[D-train]

Trump wins Kentucky. One down, 49 to go!!!

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Biden has to be changing his depends on a 5 minute rotation......

Kamala just wished she slept with the other half of America

[BaseHitDerby]

The multimillion-dollar effort by Michael Bloomberg, LeBron James and other celebrities to pay off lingering court fines and fees for Florida felons could make almost 13,000 of them eligible to vote in Tuesday’s election, an analysis by the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald and ProPublica found.

Although the modest increase in eligible felons falls far short of expectations, it could be large enough to make a difference in a key state where polls indicate that the presidential contest is once again a toss-up.

Among four of the state’s largest counties—Hillsborough, Pinellas, Palm Beach and Polk—about 32 percent, or 1,518, of the 4,700 felons who had their fines and fees paid by the nonprofit Florida Rights Restoration Coalition are registered to vote in the upcoming election, according to the Times/Herald/ProPublica review.

It’s also safe to assume that the newly eligible voters will likely favor voting for Kamala Harris—I mean, Joe Biden. Since according to the Times, at least 80 percent of felons whose fines and fees were erased aren’t white (74 percent of them are Black) and 68 percent of them are registered as Democrats.

I wonder why would felons vote for Biden, the guy that locked them up with his 1994 Crime Bill lol.

Liberal/Left logic is so absurd.

[BaseHitDerby]

Biden has to be changing his depends on a 5 minute rotation......

Kamala just wished she slept with the other half of America

2,461,764 down, only 159,346,894 to go!

[D-train]

Dead heat in FL with 81% in. Miami Latinos giving Trump a huge boost.

[bpj]

Dead heat in FL with 81% in. Miami Latinos giving Trump a huge boost.

Looks like Trump takes Florida, big start

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Dead heat in FL with 81% in. Miami Latinos giving Trump a huge boost.

Looks like Trump takes Florida, big start

He got it in spite of Lebron buying felons the right to vote over 13,000 That both he and Bloomberg payed off lol