2021 MLB DRAFT Prospect Watch

[Sexymarinersfan]

Its that time of year again. I'll be posting scouting reviews, video's, any rumblings I find, and my final thoughts to this years draft watch. Its been pushed back a month to give us more time to evaluate this year's crop. Enjoy!

2021 MLB draft prospect rankings: Vanderbilt’s Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker top Keith Law’s list

Keith Law Mar 3, 2021 92
This year’s MLB First-Year Player Draft will be a month later than it has been for the last umpteen years, taking place on July 11-13 in Atlanta, the site of the MLB Futures and All-Star Games. The crop this year looks strong, with particular depth in college right-handers and high school shortstops, as well as a solid group of catchers and high school power arms. It will be interesting to see how the industry reacts to the lack of a summer or fall for nearly all of the top college prospects in the class, with some more looks at high school kids but certainly not the depth they’d usually have into a group of prospects. Will teams just flock to safety in the first round, especially with so many good college starters? Or will teams be more comfortable with high school kids because we didn’t have the Cape Cod League and other summer leagues where we could evaluate college players in the preceding summer?

Since the college season is underway, and most high schools have started or will start in the next few weeks — California and North Carolina are two of the big exceptions, with North Carolina preps starting the last week in April — here’s my first draft ranking for 2021, going 30 names deep for now, which I’ll expand to 50 in April and then to a full Big Board of 100 as we get to May.

Note: To be eligible for the draft, a player must fit into one of the following categories: a junior or senior at a four-year college, a player of any year at a four-year college who has already turned 21 years old, a high school senior, or a player at a junior (two-year) college regardless of year of enrollment.

1. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

Leiter is an age-eligible sophomore, and while he may not be the Commodores’ most famous starter right now, he’s their best prospect, with the best combination of stuff, command, and delivery in the draft. Leiter can pitch at 95-96 mph and hit his spots even at that velocity, with a plus breaking ball and a delivery he repeats very well to keep that command long-term. His father (Al), uncle (Mark), and cousin (Mark Jr.) all pitched in the majors, and he has the track record — Jack was a first-round talent in 2019 out of high school — to give teams the extra comfort level they want when taking someone this high in the draft.

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep HS, Dallas, TX

Lawlar compares very favorably to another DFW-area high school shortstop taken high in the draft, Bobby Witt, Jr., who went second overall to the Royals in 2019. Lawlar is, if anything, a better overall athlete with better pure tools than Witt Jr., but lacks the baseball skills that the latter had in his draft year. He’s a plus runner with bat speed and a quiet approach, and projects to stay at shortstop with the chance to become a plus defender with more consistency on routine plays. Like Witt, he’s an older senior, turning 19 right before this year’s draft.

3. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The Commodores could very easily have two guys go in the top three picks in the draft, or even 1-2, with Leiter and Rocker. Rocker might be more famous, having thrown a no-hitter in the postseason two years ago and a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph, but he does suffer slightly in comparison to Leiter, with the inferior breaking ball and a grade less command. Rocker is 6-foot-5, 245, with plenty of athleticism (his father, Tracy Rocker, played two seasons in the NFL), but the fastball is really his main weapon, and he could use a plus secondary pitch and/or better movement on the fastball to go before his teammate.

4. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

If Hill posts every weekend this spring, he could jump up into the top three, passing Rocker, but concerns about Hill’s health history put him just below the other guys, as he missed much of 2019 with elbow soreness and didn’t get the chance to show he was durable last spring. Hill has the size (6-4, 234) to be a workhorse and he’s a superb athlete, and he’s started very strongly in 2021, working at 94-98 with three above-average or better pitches in the fastball, slider, and changeup. He has a great delivery and, through two outings, has thrown a ton of strikes and hasn’t walked a batter.

5. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami (FL)

Del Castillo’s defense is the subject of some debate among scouts — whether it’s good enough for him to catch long term, or whether he’ll have to move to first base — but the consensus already is that his bat will play anywhere, with a sweet left-handed swing and a good approach that give him a chance to be a strong hitter for average, OBP, and power.

6. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)

Right now, Mayer would be the second prep player off the board after Lawlar, both no-doubt shortstops but with Lawlar showing bigger tools. Mayer has an easy left-handed swing for high contact rates, but he doesn’t use his lower half enough, so while there’s the potential for above-average power here he’s not going to get to it without some mechanical adjustments. He’s an average runner with a 55 arm and should stay at short in the long term.

7. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi

Hoglund was a sandwich-round pick in 2018, going 36th overall to the Pirates, but didn’t sign with the club after the team tried to go below slot with him. He’s been healthy and effective so far for Ole Miss, especially in limiting free passes — he’s walked 21 guys in 103 innings since he got to campus, and between 2020 and 2021 he’s dominated non-conference competition. His velocity was down last year but it’s been back up through two starts this season, and if that holds up into SEC play, his delivery and command will make him one of the safer picks among college right-handers.

8. Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, GA

House has obnoxious raw power and huge exit velocities, so if he hits, he’s going to hit in the middle of a lineup for a long time, but his hit tool is still the big question after he showed poorly in the summer of 2020. He’s also a pitcher and has a plus arm that will help him stay on the left side of the infield, where he could be a 55 or better defender at third.

9. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

Cusick has been up to 100 mph and his fastball really plays, arguably the best overall fastball in the draft class when you consider not just velocity but how effective it is at getting hitters out. He’s improved dramatically since heading to Wake, from delivery to approach to using his offspeed stuff, and still has some room for growth in pitch selection and developing his changeup. There’s still starter/reliever risk here, but he has high upside as a starter and seems extremely likely to have some role in the big leagues either way.

10. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS

Watson has a higher floor than some of the other high school bats likely to go in the top half of the first round, as he’s a high probability shortstop with no below-average tools, but his height (5-9) may scare some teams off him even with the success of many shorter position players in the majors in the last five years. He has a fast bat and should get to line-drive power, and he’s a plus runner with arm strength who should stay at short.

11. James Wood, OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, FL

If this were 1992, Wood would be a top five pick in the draft because he’s 6-6, 230, and has enormous raw power — but this is 2021, and teams care more about all-around baseball skills now than they did then, when being the biggest, strongest, fastest or hardest-throwing player could put you atop draft boards. Wood does have some of the best pure power in the draft, hitting them out to all fields and homering in every major event in 2020, and he’s an above-average runner with a plus arm. His hit tool is further behind. He’ll have some wide discrepancies in how teams rate him, with some clubs completely off him in the top half of the round.

12. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

The once-mighty Longhorns program is starting to arrest its long decline; they haven’t had a first-rounder since Corey Knebel in 2013, and the last pitcher drafted from the school to have any extended MLB success was Huston Street in 2004. Madden might break both streaks, coming right down at hitters from a high three-quarters slot and two potential plus pitches in his fastball and slider, but he has to throw more and better strikes over this spring to cement himself as a starter and top-half pick.

13. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

The top college left-hander usually goes in the top half of the first round — in the last 10 drafts, the first college lefty has gone in the top 20 picks nine times, and in six of those drafts he went in the top 10 — so while Wicks doesn’t have the pure stuff of this year’s batch of college right-handers, he’s far and away the top southpaw and should go accordingly. He’s been 90-93 with an above-average breaking ball, feel for a changeup, and the command and control you’d expect from the college-lefty archetype.

14. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (OH)

Bachman has been up to 100 mph this spring with good sink as well as a grade-70 slider up to 90 mph, with improved control since his freshman year, so while it’s not a classic delivery or arm action, he has the power stuff to start or be an impact reliever if he can’t do this in the rotation.

15. Richard Fitts, RHP, Auburn

Fitts walked on to his high school team and only ended up pitching at Auburn after making the team in a tryout as a freshman, but his velocity has gradually crept up over the last three years. He can pitch at 94-95 and touch 97 with a wipeout changeup with split-like action, and he has above-average control. He does need to tighten up his slider, and last weekend’s dud against Baylor didn’t help his draft stock.

16. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida

Mace was No. 46 on my Big Board last year, but went undrafted when he chose to bet on himself and go back to Florida for his senior year. So far, it’s looking like a very good bet, as Mace is throwing his curveball more, giving him a strong second pitch along with a 90-95 mph fastball. He’s a safe bet to be a big-league starter, and since he’s 22 already and will have four years (one shortened) of experience in the SEC, he should be fairly close to the majors.

17. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

Cowser is set to become either the highest or second-highest draft pick in Sam Houston State history; the Bearkats have had just one first-round pick, Glenn Wilson to Detroit in 1980. Cowser has bat speed and a history of contact, but his swing is handsy and he’s going to hit for average more than power, which is fine as long as he stays in centerfield.

18. Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City

Jobe is a very hard thrower with elite spin rates on his curveball, possibly the highest in the class, and is an outstanding athlete whose father, Brandt, won the Boeing Classic on the PGA Tour in 2019. He’s not the tallest or most physical among the high school right-handers this year but has the best present combination of stuff and athleticism.

19. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

McLain is certainly famous, turning down the Diamondbacks’ first-round money in 2018 to go to UCLA, but hasn’t performed enough for the Bruins to move into the top tier of position players, especially since he’s going to move off shortstop (probably to second base) in pro ball.

20. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Will Smith was a sandwich-round pick out of Louisville in 2016, but Davis, a fellow Cardinals catcher, should beat that as a no-doubt catcher with power and, in limited time, a history of rarely striking out. He has a 70 arm and 60 or better raw power, with strength and bat speed, but has an exaggerated crouch and some length to his swing that gives pause about his future hit tool … except so far in college he has just 22 punchouts in 230 PA, with 0 so far in 2020.

21. Braden Montgomery, OF, Madison Central HS, Madison, MS

The history of position players drafted out of Mississippi high schools is dismal; the all-time WAR leader is Charlie Hayes with 10.5, and only one hitter drafted from a Mississippi high school in this century has a WAR over 0.1 — Billy Hamilton, drafted in 2009. But the switch-hitting Montgomery stands out for his unusual polish for players from that state, with a commitment to Stanford, and huge tools, with plusses in power, arm, and glove.

22. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, GA

Ford is a fleet-footed catcher who has the tools to stay behind the plate, with athleticism and agility as well as an average to above-average arm. He has electric bat speed and should come into power, with a huge stride in the box but surprisingly good balance even with such a dramatic movement.

23. Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield School, Boston, MA

Baez could be a day one pick off the mound, where he’s hit 97, but he wants to be a position player and with his huge power and high exit velocities, he’s likely to go in the first round, especially to teams that value age highly, since he’s only 17 at the draft.

24. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, NJ

Solometo is long and lanky, with an unrefined delivery, but he’s been up to 97 with a plus slider and plenty of changeup to see him as a potential starter.

25. Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS, Lewisbury, PA

Montgomery is a 70 runner with plus raw power and a tall, lean build, with somewhat narrow shoulders that give him more of a young Drew Stubbs frame than that of someone who’s going to put on 50 more pounds.

26. Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ

Petty has hit 100 mph and can sit mid-90s with good arm speed on his changeup and a low-80s breaking ball, but he’ll be dinged by some teams because he’s a 6-foot high school right-hander.

27. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

Frelick is a small, fast centerfielder, listed at 5-9, 175, with a quick, no-load, slashing swing that produces a ton of contact — he has 35 walks and just 26 strikeouts in 278 PA for Boston College — but won’t lead to any power. He’s moved to centerfield this year, and if he shows he can play average defense there, he’ll be a first-rounder with everyday upside.

28. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

Wilson hit .345/.453/.686 as a freshman in 2019, but rolled his ankle before the 2021 season started, missing the first weekend and DHing the second. He was supposed to be one of the top bats in the draft this year, but adding a huge leg kick hasn’t helped his timing any more than the ankle injury has, and he could be in danger of slipping out of the first round.

29. Alex Binelas, OF, Louisville

Binelas had a strong freshman year for the Cardinals in 2018, with power and some patience without too many whiffs, but he’s off to a very rough start this year, swinging and missing too often and going 2 for 26 in non-conference play.

30. Eric Cerantola, RHP, Mississippi State

The Bulldogs’ entire weekend rotation should go in the top three rounds, but Cerantola is the guy with real first-round upside, as he’s been up to 100 mph with a power breaking ball. He just has no track record to speak of right now, with only 34 career innings — and 25 walks — so the 6-5 Canadian is all upside with no floor.

For the record, I do not like the selection of Ty Madden for Seattle's pick. He reminds me a lot of Reid Detmers(Angels). Not a ton of velo, 92-94, touching 96 and relies more on his big breaking curveball, and has less control than Detmers.

Law has Davis ranked a little low for me at #20, but then again Keith had Garrett Mitchell at 12 in 2020, and I had Mitchell falling out of the Top 20. The Brewers nabbed Mitchell right at the 20th pick.

My current Top 10
1. P - Kumar Rocker
2. SS - Jordan Lawler(HS)
3. P - Jack Leiter
4. OF - Jud Fabian
5. P - Jaden Hill
6. C - Adrian Del Castillo
7. SS - Matt McLain
8. 3B - Brady House
9. 3B - Alex Binelas
10. SS - Marcelo Mayer(HS)

Seattle picks at #12, and right now if the draft were today, my selection would be:

Name: Henry Davis
Age: 21
Position: Catcher
Height: 6'2 Weight: 185
Bats: Right Throws: Right
School: Louisville

The catcher position in the organization has steadily become a strength in the Mariners organization. Luis Torrens is coming off a solid albeit short season and the starting-quality catching prospect Cal Raleigh is right behind waiting in the wings. The M's could add a catcher in the 2021 draft and might use their first pick.

Miami catcher Adrian Del Castillo is not expected to be available at pick #12 so the Mariners could grab an ACC catcher. Third-year catcher out of Louisville Henry Davis could be their best option.

Davis had a productive career in his two seasons at Louisville. His career slash line is .303/.381/.463 and also has a career .844 OPS. His power numbers improved during the shortened 2020 season could be a 20-homer hitter at the big league level.

Davis’ best tool is his arm strength. Davis probably has the strongest arm out of all of the catchers in the 2021 MLB Draft. MLB Pipeline has his arm graded as a 70 which is pretty elite company. Some scouts have compared him to former Ohio State catcher and 2020 second round pick Dillon Dingler.

Mariners Analysis: Davis is a complete player. His best trait is his above-average arm strength that is accurate and has allowed him to throw out 34% of base stealers in his first two years at Louisville. He has all the traits to stick at catcher long-term. Offensively, Davis has strong plate discipline and the raw power to make an impact as a right-handed hitter. He just screams C to the Z to me, who rarely ever strikes out. He's the BPA on the board at this point. It isn't a pitcher or the middle infielder that I wanted, but this is the way the board currently fell and ranks for me personally. I think the Mariners would do very well by adding to their catching ranks with Davis. I have Davis currently ranked right outside my Top 10 at #12 on my Big board, following very closely to outfielder James Wood out of IMG Travel Academy at 11.

Highlight Reel:
https://youtu.be/HpZhpDs5624

[D-train]

11. James Wood, OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, FL

If this were 1992, Wood would be a top five pick in the draft because he’s 6-6, 230, and has enormous raw power — but this is 2021, and teams care more about all-around baseball skills now than they did then, when being the biggest, strongest, fastest or hardest-throwing player could put you atop draft boards. Wood does have some of the best pure power in the draft, hitting them out to all fields and homering in every major event in 2020, and he’s an above-average runner with a plus arm. His hit tool is further behind. He’ll have some wide discrepancies in how teams rate him, with some clubs completely off him in the top half of the round.

I thought he was going to say because he had just starred in Reservoir Dogs which came in 1992.

But alas that was Tim Roth not James Woods.

[Sexymarinersfan]

11. James Wood, OF, IMG Academy, Bradenton, FL

If this were 1992, Wood would be a top five pick in the draft because he’s 6-6, 230, and has enormous raw power — but this is 2021, and teams care more about all-around baseball skills now than they did then, when being the biggest, strongest, fastest or hardest-throwing player could put you atop draft boards. Wood does have some of the best pure power in the draft, hitting them out to all fields and homering in every major event in 2020, and he’s an above-average runner with a plus arm. His hit tool is further behind. He’ll have some wide discrepancies in how teams rate him, with some clubs completely off him in the top half of the round.

I thought he was going to say because he had just starred in Reservoir Dogs which came in 1992.

But alas that was Tim Roth not James Woods.

Classic movie!

I think the board is going to shift tremendously compared to other years from now until draft time. I'd like to see us take someone with a little bit higher ceiling that maybe comes with some risk, whether it be prep or not.

I posted a video on Davis. I like how stays through the hitting zone for a really long time. Not too fond of his over exaggerated crouch though.

[D-train]

This has us taking Madden right in the 12 slot. That would not excite me. We have plenty of starters.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

[D-train]

Actually if you want upside, this could be the kid. Got Wood?

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/ ... james-wood

[Sexymarinersfan]

This has us taking Madden right in the 12 slot. That would not excite me. We have plenty of starters.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

Yeah I'm not fond of Madden at all. I don't even see why people are so high on him. And the Texas Longhorns baseball program seems like a distant memory of what it once was.

[D-train]

This has us taking Madden right in the 12 slot. That would not excite me. We have plenty of starters.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

Yeah I'm not fond of Madden at all. I don't even see why people are so high on him. And the Texas Longhorns baseball program seems like a distant memory of what it once was.

Long gone are the days of Roger Clemens and the great Spike Owen..........

[Sexymarinersfan]

Actually if you want upside, this could be the kid. Got Wood?

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2020/11/ ... james-wood

I'll scout him out. He's on my list but I haven't sat down on him yet. I'm almost finished with my 2nd prospect piece, on Jaden Hill. He's my darkhorse favorite to go #1 or fall to 12.

I've yet to find my favorite guy this yet this year. Last year it was Mick Abel followed closely by Zac Veen, and years past George Springer, Jarred Kelenic, etc. Mostly because we didn't have minor league baseball last year.

[Sexymarinersfan]

This has us taking Madden right in the 12 slot. That would not excite me. We have plenty of starters.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

Yeah I'm not fond of Madden at all. I don't even see why people are so high on him. And the Texas Longhorns baseball program seems like a distant memory of what it once was.

Long gone are the days of Roger Clemens and the great Spike Owen..........

Yeah when I was 7 years old jeesh! How time flies.

[Sexymarinersfan]

Name: Jaden Hill
Age: 21
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Height: 6'4 Weight: 233
School: LSU

Jaden Hill might be my most favorite pitcher in this draft not named Kumar Rocker, with the dark horse potential to go #1 overall. Hill was Arkansas' top prep prospect in 2018 and had top-three-rounds talent, but his steadfast commitment to LSU dropped him to the Cardinals in the 38th round. He worked just 21 2/3 innings in his first two college seasons because of elbow issues in 2019 and the shortened season in 2020, so he's not as famous as Vanderbilt right-handers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. But he might have a higher ceiling than either one of them. He has possessed a plus changeup since his high school days and the pitch presently arrives in the mid-80s with a lot of tumble. He has transformed what had been a slurvy "breaking ball" into a nasty mid-80s kind-of slider that can give him a third plus offering once it becomes more consistent. 

A former three-star quarterback recruit who had offers from mid-level college football programs, Hill is strong, physical and athletic at 6-foot-4 and 233 pounds. He throws strikes but still needs to fine-tune his command and prove he can maintain premium stuff over a full season of starts. If he does that, he could join Ben McDonald as the only No. 1 overall pick in LSU history.

His fastball arguably has the best velocity on occasion with late movement up in the zone. He has the makings of a power arm with a velocity-packed fastball, a plus-changeup, a cutter and a hard breaking whatever it is in his arsenal(slider, curve, slurve).

Up until this point Jaden Hill has mainly pitched in relief, where he can easily touch 99 mph with his fastball, but in longer outings I watched he can still sit comfortably in the mid 90’s. He's been anywhere from 92-96 regularly. He has a breaking ball that's his bread and butter and its been getting better and better steadily since he was in high school. Jaden's been working on it. He’s been refining it. He’s been building it into a new toy to dominate opponents with.

But he hasn’t thought about what to call it. The question becomes what the pitch is, exactly. Is it a curveball? A slider? A slurve?

“I have no idea,” Hill said. “It breaks, and they miss it.” ~NOLA.com

It shows devastating late bite as it dives across the plate. I've seen it mostly around 80-83. His changeup was actually ahead of the breaking ball when he arrived in Baton Rouge, and it’s a plus-pitch as well. Hill’s delivery is clean, his frame is big and durable, and his arm speed is certainly there. He has also shown solid-average command in his short stints on the mound, bringing together the full package. Of course, the big question is proving it all, because 21.2 dominant innings as an underclassman is not enough to inspire confidence that his game will hold together under the rigor of a 200 inning MLB season. There is nothing in his profile to suggest he can’t, but until he does, it has to be a question. Scouts will for sure be bearing down on his starts this spring, and if the stuff is as loud in June as it was in February and the command holds together, then we likely have a top ten pick and potentially the most exciting arm to come out of LSU since Aaron Nola.

Mariners analysis: Despite the limited sample size, Hill has plenty of untapped potential if his repertoire comes together. If his velocity continues to trend upward and he puts together a full college season, Hill may not last until the Mariners are on the clock at 12. The Mariners have targeted pitching in recent drafts, and Hill’s selection would add to the bevy of talented arms in the system. Dipoto would do well to add another starter with ace ceiling potential to an already loaded top 5 farm system. You can never have enough pitching.

HIGHLIGHT REEL:
https://youtu.be/fWotsHztBOw

Recent #12 picks from the MLB Draft
2020 - Austin Hendrick OF Reds
2019 - Bret Baty 3B Mets
2018 - Jordan Groshans Blue Jays
-Logan Gilbert #14 Mariners
-Matt McLain SS; #25 D'backs - offered $2.6M Did not sign(Currently #7 on my board)

2017 - Shane Baz P Pittsburgh
-Evan White #17; 1B Mariners

2016 - Jason Groome P Red Sox
-Kyle Lewis OF #11 Mariners
-Justin Dunn P #19 Mets

My current Top 10
1. P - Kumar Rocker
2. SS - Jordan Lawler(HS)
3. P - Jack Leiter
4. OF - Jud Fabian
5. P - Jaden Hill
6. C - Adrian Del Castillo
7. SS/P - Brady House(HS)
8. P - Gunnar Hoglund
9. SS - Marcelo Mayer(HS)
10. P - Ryan Cusick

11. OF - James Wood
12. C - Henry Davis