Virus Schmirus

[bpj]

oh, ok, so they are predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with distancing, and you think that is way too high, where are you at with it?

My initial was 10k deaths but that was based on 1.7% mortality rate. Its now over 2% so my 600k positives projection could lead to ~15k deaths. I am now tracking more like 500k though so somewhere in the 10-15k range. We are currently at about 189k positives and just over 4k dead.

500,000 total cases?...out of a population of 300,000,000?...seems pretty low to me

this isn't the model the administration is using but i guess its considered close, from the UW

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Seems pretty low / isn't low.

Doesnt seem low to me, seems exactly in line with what's happening.

They're numbers. They can't "seem" anything. Dt's model is snappin necks and cashing checks compared to these fearmongers whose job it is to keep you at home.

When their models make no sense, they make no sense. And they make no sense. They're not playing out.

[Donn Beach]

well then maybe he can explain to me how we get from 200,000+ cases today to 600,000 in three months on an exponential curve

Its not exponential any more because of the shut downs, shelter in place orders and social distancing.........Its working. I am actually overestimating new cases right now.

[D-train]

Here is the latest. My model (dt) vs. Actual. Keep in mind my model is based on end of day today.


Total Cases:
dt: 246,565
A: 205,036 (estimate: 215k at end of day) Currently 211k

New Cases today:
dt: 34,360
A: 18,935 (estimate: 29k at end of day) 25k

Recovered:
dt: 10, 442
A: 8,745 (estimate: 10k at end of day) 8,800

my eod estimate was 215

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Woke up at 6:30am EST and it was in fact 215k

[D-train]

oh, ok, so they are predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with distancing, and you think that is way too high, where are you at with it?

My initial was 10k deaths but that was based on 1.7% mortality rate. Its now over 2% so my 600k positives projection could lead to ~15k deaths. I am now tracking more like 500k though so somewhere in the 10-15k range. We are currently at about 189k positives and just over 4k dead.

500,000 total cases?...out of a population of 300,000,000?...seems pretty low to me

this isn't the model the administration is using but i guess its considered close, from the UW

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

China supposedly went from 1st case to no new cases in 100 days. I built my model completely independently based on new cases per day trends and then checked how many days it was from 1st case on Jan. 19th to no new cases and it was EXACTLY 100 days.

Capture1.JPG (55 KiB) Viewed 975 times

[D-train]

Here is my forecast vs. Actual. Even with yesterday's spike we are still below forecast.

new cases.JPG (54.46 KiB) Viewed 970 times

[Donn Beach]

I am confused, the modeling you are disputing is based on American methods of dealing with the coronavirus, not Chinese. Your claiming the American approach is over blown and using Chinese data to prove it? I am living under more the Chinese version, marshal law, would you like to try that?

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas- ... ady-2020-3

[D-train]

I am confused, the modeling you are disputing is based on American methods of dealing with the coronavirus, not Chinese. Your claiming the American approach is over blown and using Chinese data to prove it? I am living under more the Chinese version, marshal law, would you like to try that?

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas- ... ady-2020-3

I told you my model is completely independent of China. It is just a coincidence that new cases also stopped after 100 days. What it tells me is that our policy seems to be working just as well as China's.

[D-train]

And yes, in the end, people will be wondering why people were losing their collective minds over a virus that only infected .2% of the population.

[Donn Beach]

what are you basing it on?...

[D-train]

what are you basing it on?...

CDC new cases per day and the trend in the growth per day of those cases. Yesterday was not good but in general growth rates have been trending down big time. Also recoveries are going to start spiking big time.