Virus Schmirus

[bpj]

DT's model has been better all along. Adjusted for current data it certainly appears as if they have done very good things stopping the pandemic.

I fully agree with your idea that they altered their strategy to go along with the doomsdayers because trump can claim a win and can give credit to the public for 'stopping the spread' when deaths hit 10k and are on the downside of the curve.

[D-train]

Trump had everything going perfectly and then they decide to ridiculously shift the focus of the press conference to announce an inane anti recreational drug initiative in the Caribbean. Idiotic unforced error imo. Specifically mentioned Cocaine. When was the last time you heard about Cocaine being an issue in the US since Scarface or Miami vice???

[bpj]

If Trump just said it, it would be the first, but would it surprise you if he's right?

This does seem like a perfect cover to send your military into overdrive to find out your next targets to lop the heads off of.

War on the cartels seems safest when nobody is on the streets and you know exactly where they are.

I think there are a lot of things going on right now that will only unfold with time.

[D-train]

If Trump just said it, it would be the first, but would it surprise you if he's right?

This does seem like a perfect cover to send your military into overdrive to find out your next targets to lop the heads off of.

War on the cartels seems safest when nobody is on the streets and you know exactly where they are.

I think there are a lot of things going on right now that will only unfold with time.

Probably me being selfish.

[D-train]

Hey Toderd I see you lurking. Let me know if you want me to destroy your life. Perhaps you should never post on this site again.

[D-train]

Here is the latest. My model (dt) vs. Actual. Keep in mind my model is based on end of day today.


Total Cases:
dt: 246,565
A: 205,036 (estimate: 215k at end of day) Currently 211k

New Cases today:
dt: 34,360
A: 18,935 (estimate: 29k at end of day) 25k

Recovered:
dt: 10, 442
A: 8,745 (estimate: 10k at end of day) 8,800

my eod estimate was 215

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Donn Beach]

oh, ok, so they are predicting 100,000-200,000 deaths with distancing, and you think that is way too high, where are you at with it?

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."
"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."

My initial was 10k deaths but that was based on 1.7% mortality rate. Its now over 2% so my 600k positives projection could lead to ~15k deaths. I am now tracking more like 500k though so somewhere in the 10-15k range. We are currently at about 189k positives and just over 4k dead.

500,000 total cases?...out of a population of 300,000,000?...seems pretty low to me

this isn't the model the administration is using but i guess its considered close, from the UW

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[Donn Beach]

they already have over 200,000 actual cases don't they?...600,000 total cases?...that doesn't make sense to me

[Double Mocha Man]

Hey Toderd I see you lurking. Let me know if you want me to destroy your life. Perhaps you should never post on this site again.

Toderd? What the hell did he post?

[Donn Beach]

thought this was kind of interesting, on Ohio and their governor, doesn't look very politically motivated there


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canad ... st+type%5D