Virus Schmirus

[D-train]

The subjective piece is the trending of the yellow line into the future. Looks like it could be a bit optimistic now but I have wiggle room because I initially over estimated growth rates so I can afford to underestimate them going forward and still be pretty accurate.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Here is the latest. My model (dt) vs. Actual. Keep in mind my model is based on end of day today.


Total Cases:
dt: 246,565
A: 205,036 (estimate: 215k at end of day) Currently 211k

New Cases today:
dt: 34,360
A: 18,935 (estimate: 29k at end of day) 25k

Recovered:
dt: 10, 442
A: 8,745 (estimate: 10k at end of day) 8,800

my eod estimate was 215

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Thanks for keeping us informed. Hang in there mr train, looks like Massachusetts is in the top 6 in the country.

[Donn Beach]

okay, see how it goes...

[Oso Dorado]

Here in B.C. the recovered cases increased more than the new cases, and we have less active cases than the day before. This is a great thing.

Disclaimer: In BC, as elsewhere there are factors that make this information not completely reliable. One, what is the efficiency of the tests? How many false positives, how many false negatives. I've seen stories of both, but have no data. Note, too, that different tests are being used in different areas, so this unknown can vary from location to location. Two, these are statistics about people that have taken a Covid-19 test. It offers no information about those that have not. Assumption is that there are more cases out there than are being reported. For instance, if you have mild symptoms, why go to a doctor? No health insurance? No doctor unless it is really serious. Thirdly, any data is release through a government agency and prone to being editted, ignored, or filtered. I do not have reason to doubt the numbers in BC, but I am not as sanguine about other places. High numbers can be embarrassing to people in power, and so the urge to modify them exists.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

That is the underlying good of this pandemic. That it seems to effect some in a non life threatening way. And at the same time will begin to help with the herd immunity Italy had multiple infestations from multiple carriers and basically gave the elderly a higher dose as well as different strains. In Washington state we had basically one person infect a nursing home and that one strain has been multiplying and getting weaker each time it is spread.

[D-train]

Here in B.C. the recovered cases increased more than the new cases, and we have less active cases than the day before. This is a great thing.

Disclaimer: In BC, as elsewhere there are factors that make this information not completely reliable. One, what is the efficiency of the tests? How many false positives, how many false negatives. I've seen stories of both, but have no data. Note, too, that different tests are being used in different areas, so this unknown can vary from location to location. Two, these are statistics about people that have taken a Covid-19 test. It offers no information about those that have not. Assumption is that there are more cases out there than are being reported. For instance, if you have mild symptoms, why go to a doctor? No health insurance? No doctor unless it is really serious. Thirdly, any data is release through a government agency and prone to being editted, ignored, or filtered. I do not have reason to doubt the numbers in BC, but I am not as sanguine about other places. High numbers can be embarrassing to people in power, and so the urge to modify them exists.

Awesome! That is what I am expecting to happen in the US very soon.

[D-train]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-hedge ... 1585819802

[D-train]

13k Cases so far today. I am projecting 31k.

[D-train]

https://twitter.com/AaronQ13Fox/status/ ... 6366328832

Good stuff

[D-train]

Today's new cases at 25k. I projected 31k. Probably will end about there.

Total cases: 240k My original (from Saturday) end of day projection for total case: 283k