8/18 Mariners Sniffing 9 Games Over, Again vs. Rangers Game Thread

[Donn Beach]

Okay, how about this. The Mariners final record will be better because of making the trade than if they hadn't made it.

I think if you do all the trades in totality you can make that claim. It's probably a wash for just the Graveman trade, but Mariners win the trade big time in the future with Toro.

The point being, I can make any claim I want to make, like the Mariners would have won two or three more games after the trade if it hadn't happened. My claim is as legitimate as that claim.

[bpj]

And you said "the problem with keeping Graveman" which insinuates you think we would still have a record 9 games over .500 with Graveman. If you thought we would have a better record by keeping Graveman the second part of your sentence makes no sense.

Here's what I said-

The problem with holding Graveman at the deadline and acquiring at least another bat is that while we were just 1 game out the last time we were 9 games over, this time the teams around us in the standings improved so what once was 1 game out at 9 games over is now more like 3.5 games back.

What that means, is that even if they held Graveman, they were going to have to play better the rest of the season to keep up with the improved competition, then I showed it with the numbers to back the claim.

And they would have. They would be 3-4 games better right now. Boston is dropping like a rock and the A's have a brutal schedule If we were sitting 1 game back of them right now I would like our chances immensely. You seem to think it would have been a "problem" to keep Graveman. I think it blew our chances to make the playoffs this season.

I guess it depends how you look at it. Not having 5+ years of Toro would be my biggest problem.

They may be a few games better right now than they would have been. My point is, even with 3 extra wins they're still chasing it by a game, same position they were in at the deadline, because the teams around them have been pushing the goal line further back at the same time. And they'll likely continue to so so.

None of the other 5 contending teams were giving up and we weren't in position to beat them without making further acquisitions (i.e. prospect costs), imo. Even behind us in the standings the Angels were eagerly waiting on Trout.

So, we'd be minus Toro and whatever prospects it cost to get whichever rentals they acquired. Problems, imo.

As I've said since the trade, I believe they are better now, as exhibited by a. 750 winning pct over the last 8 games, and will push for a very similar record by the end of the year than they would have had if they had kept Graveman. And it will be- and has been- thanks in part to Toro and Dipotos other acquisitions.

And, at the same time, we're set up better for the future.

[bpj]

87. That number rings a bell for some reason. I would have to go back and look but I think 90-91 was about my win projection based on individual WAR projections which are WAAAYYY Off by the way.

We need to start documenting the pros "projections" to see how spectacularly they fail

Fangraphs: 72 wins

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atc-2021-pr ... yoff-odds/

SI with 69 wins and note this comment.

Fans have the call-up of top prospect Jarred Kelenic to look forward to and ... not a whole lot else.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/03/29/baseb ... -standings

BAs PECOTA system: 70 wins

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-pecota-pr ... -breakdown

Do you have links to their projections for individual players across the league? That may be just as comical

[Captain 97]

Here's what I said-



What that means, is that even if they held Graveman, they were going to have to play better the rest of the season to keep up with the improved competition, then I showed it with the numbers to back the claim.

And they would have. They would be 3-4 games better right now. Boston is dropping like a rock and the A's have a brutal schedule If we were sitting 1 game back of them right now I would like our chances immensely. You seem to think it would have been a "problem" to keep Graveman. I think it blew our chances to make the playoffs this season.

I guess it depends how you look at it. Not having 5+ years of Toro would be my biggest problem.

They may be a few games better right now than they would have been. My point is, even with 3 extra wins they're still chasing it by a game, same position they were in at the deadline, because the teams around them have been pushing the goal line further back at the same time. And they'll likely continue to so so.

None of the other 5 contending teams were giving up and we weren't in position to beat them without making further acquisitions (i.e. prospect costs), imo. Even behind us in the standings the Angels were eagerly waiting on Trout.

So, we'd be minus Toro and whatever prospects it cost to get whichever rentals they acquired. Problems, imo.

As I've said since the trade, I believe they are better now, as exhibited by a. 750 winning pct over the last 8 games, and will push for a very similar record by the end of the year than they would have had if they had kept Graveman. And it will be- and has been- thanks in part to Toro and Dipotos other acquisitions.

And, at the same time, we're set up better for the future.

Like I have said countless time. Looking to the future the trade is a no brainer. They bailed on this season to position themselves better for next season. You all seem to be in denial that that is what happened though. The team is 9-10 since the trade but you want to focus on the last 8 games for some reason. So does that mean you think the trade had no effect on the 11 games before that? BTW Toro in the last 8 games is hitting .179 with a .538 OPS. Yeah the Team has played .750 ball in the last 8 games because of Toro.

[bpj]

I don't look at it as bailing on the season because I think they've turned it around and are better now and will have a similar record as they would have by keeping Graveman, by seasons end.

[Captain 97]

I don't look at it as bailing on the season because I think they've turned it around and are better now and will have a similar record as they would have by keeping Graveman, by seasons end.

9-10 is better than 55-46. OK

[bpj]

I don't look at it as bailing on the season because I think they've turned it around and are better now and will have a similar record as they would have by keeping Graveman, by seasons end.

9-10 is better than 55-46. OK

6-2 is. LOL.

Their winning percentage at the time of the trade was .5445.

I'm content waiting to see where they finish the season before jumping off the cliff about the trade like some of you have.

Some of you try so hard to create fights with me, it's pathetic.

[D-train]

I don't look at it as bailing on the season because I think they've turned it around and are better now and will have a similar record as they would have by keeping Graveman, by seasons end.

9-10 is better than 55-46. OK

If we beat Texas the next two games it will be 11-10 which is pretty damn close. 11-9 would be spot on.

[Captain 97]

I don't look at it as bailing on the season because I think they've turned it around and are better now and will have a similar record as they would have by keeping Graveman, by seasons end.

9-10 is better than 55-46. OK

6-2 is. LOL.

Their winning percentage at the time of the trade was .5445.

I'm content waiting to see where they finish the season before jumping off the cliff about the trade like some of you have.

Some of you try so hard to create fights with me, it's pathetic.

And if they'd kept Graveman and Chargois and won 3-4 more games they would be at .558 or .566.

Your not content to wait to see where they finish the season. You keep insisting the team is better right now because of the Graveman trade when literally anyway you look at what has happened since it is clearly not better.

I am not picking a fight with you just having a healthy debate.

BTW still waiting for you to explain how Toro hitting .179 with a .538 OPS in the last 8 days is the reason why they are 6-2

[bpj]

9-10 is better than 55-46. OK

6-2 is. LOL.

Their winning percentage at the time of the trade was .5445.

I'm content waiting to see where they finish the season before jumping off the cliff about the trade like some of you have.

Some of you try so hard to create fights with me, it's pathetic.

And if they'd kept Graveman and Chargois and won 3-4 more games they would be at .558 or .566.

Your not content to wait to see where they finish the season. You keep insisting the team is better right now because of the Graveman trade when literally anyway you look at what has happened since it is clearly not better.

I am not picking a fight with you just having a healthy debate.

BTW still waiting for you to explain how Toro hitting .179 with a .538 OPS in the last 8 days is the reason why they are 6-2

Quick check shows he has a .345 OBP over his last 7 games.

Team is 6-2 over the last 8 games.

Cry a little harder